US-Russia Diplomatic Talks on Ukraine: Key Developments and Perspectives
Diplomatic Discussions in Saudi Arabia
On Tuesday, US and Russian officials convened diplomatic talks in Saudi Arabia, seeking to establish terms for a peace agreement in Ukraine and negotiate a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin. The discussions were led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Ukraine’s Absence and the Proposed Framework
Notably, Ukrainian officials were not present at the talks. The US and Russia proposed a framework involving a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine, and the subsequent signing of a peace agreement. State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce confirmed that Rubio’s team also agreed to explore potential cooperation with Russia on various issues beyond Ukraine.
Role of New Elections in a Peace Deal
Multiple foreign diplomatic sources indicate that forcing Ukraine to hold new elections could be a critical aspect of a peace agreement. Both the US and Russia reportedly believe that President Zelenskyy has a low chance of winning re-election, and that a different candidate would be more willing to negotiate and make concessions.
Putin’s Calculations and Zelenskyy’s Concerns
Diplomatic sources suggest that President Putin sees a high probability of electing a puppet president in Ukraine and believes that any non-incumbent candidate would be more flexible in negotiations.
However, President Zelenskyy has rejected the idea of forced elections, stating that Ukraine will not accept peace terms negotiated without its involvement. Trump has also pledged the inclusion of Ukraine in the broader process.
Zelenskyy’s Abbreviated Middle East Trip
Following news of the Saudi Arabia meeting, President Zelenskyy cut short his trip to the Middle East and returned to Kyiv. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, emphasized that the meeting was primarily focused on fostering trust rather than finalizing a peace agreement.
Zelenskyy’s Warning and Absence of European Representatives
In a phone call with Trump last week, President Zelenskyy cautioned against trusting Putin and expressed his belief that Putin is not genuinely interested in peace.
Notably, Tuesday’s talks excluded European representatives, despite the recent criticism of European allies by Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference.
European Perspectives and UK Involvement
Some European allies are aligning with US and Russian views on Ukraine. UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer has expressed willingness to deploy British troops in Ukraine as part of a peace deal to ensure its security.
Assessing the Outcomes
The outcomes of the diplomatic talks are still uncertain. Further discussions and negotiations will be required to determine the feasibility and acceptability of the proposed framework. The role of Ukraine and the involvement of other actors, such as European allies, will also shape the trajectory of the peace process.
