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NFL Free Agency: Head-Scratching Deals Emerge Amidst Spending Spree
The opening days of NFL free agency have been nothing short of chaotic, a whirlwind of player movement that promises to reshape the league’s landscape for the 2025 season. Teams haven’t been shy about opening their wallets, with a significant portion of the league already surpassing the $100 million mark in spending within the first few days, according to figures from OverTheCap. The frenzy started even before the official opening, with blockbuster trades setting the stage for an offseason of unprecedented activity.
While many signings have been met with understanding and even approval, a handful of deals have left analysts and fans alike scratching their heads. These aren’t necessarily bad deals, but they raise questions about value, risk, and team strategy. Here, we’ll delve into five signings that have generated the most confusion in the early stages of free agency (all contract information is via OverTheCap).
1. Javon Kinlaw to the Washington Commanders: A Gamble on Untapped Potential?
The Washington Commanders have taken a significant risk by signing former San Francisco 49ers defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw. Kinlaw, a former first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, joined free agency after a relatively unremarkable stint with the 49ers and a single season with the New York Jets. While he recorded a career-high 4.5 sacks last season, his overall production has been inconsistent, largely due to persistent injury issues.
The Commanders are betting heavily on Kinlaw, awarding him a contract that places him 15th in the NFL in guaranteed money for interior defensive linemen. This is a surprising figure, considering his availability and overall production. Kinlaw has played in just 58 of a possible 84 games (70%) since entering the league. In those games, he’s recorded a modest 9.5 sacks, 74 pressures, seven passes defended, and two forced fumbles.
Is this investment justified? It’s hard to say. One complicating factor is the connection between Commanders general manager Adam Peters and Kinlaw. Peters was with the 49ers when they drafted Kinlaw, envisioning him as the heir apparent to DeForest Buckner. It’s possible that Peters, along with head coach Dan Quinn, believes they can unlock the potential that the 49ers never fully realized. However, given Kinlaw’s injury history and the depth of the 2025 NFL Draft at interior defensive line, this deal carries considerable risk. The Commanders are essentially betting that they can rehabilitate Kinlaw’s health and transform him into the player they believed he could be.
2. Jon Feliciano to the Green Bay Packers: Overpaying for Guard Depth?
The Green Bay Packers have fortified their offensive line by signing Jon Feliciano, a move that comes at a premium. Feliciano entered free agency as a sought-after guard, and he secured a contract that ranks second-largest in total value at the position behind Will Fries’ $88 million deal with the Vikings. This contract positions him as the seventh-highest-paid guard in the NFL.
The puzzling aspect of this deal lies in Feliciano’s performance metrics. He ranked 50th out of 135 qualifying guards by Pro Football Focus (PFF) in 2024. Moreover, Sports Information Solutions (SIS) data designated Feliciano as the worst starter on the 49ers’ offensive line in 2024 (minimum 700 snaps).
While the Packers undoubtedly recognize the importance of offensive line depth – a lesson they may have learned when Elgton Jenkins’ injury hampered their performance in the NFC wild-card playoff game – this signing feels like an overcorrection. Given the dollar amount involved and the perceived depth of talent at the guard position in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Packers may have overpaid for a player who hasn’t consistently performed at an elite level. It smacks of a preemptive move driven by a perceived positional need more than an objective evaluation of Feliciano’s value.
3. Talanoa Hufanga to the Denver Broncos: A Risky Bet on a Talented but Unreliable Safety?
The Denver Broncos have added safety Talanoa Hufanga to their roster, a move that raises questions about risk assessment. Hufanga became expendable for the San Francisco 49ers after the emergence of fourth-round rookie safety Malik Mustapha in 2024. In a relatively deep free-agent safety class, Hufanga was an option for teams seeking experience and playmaking ability in the secondary.
The Broncos, however, offered Hufanga a contract that elevates him to the ninth-highest-paid safety in the league by average annual value. He even secured more guaranteed money than Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker.
On paper, Hufanga’s skill set appears to be a good fit alongside reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II. However, his health is the primary concern. He has played only one full season since being drafted in the fifth round of the 2021 draft. While he earned first-team All-Pro honors in 2022, he has participated in just 17 of a possible 34 games since then. The Broncos are clearly banking on Hufanga’s talent, but they are also taking a considerable gamble on his ability to stay healthy.
4. Rock Ya-Sin to the New York Jets: A Questionable Investment in a Struggling Cornerback?
The New York Jets bolstered their cornerback corps by signing Rock Ya-Sin. Multiple cornerbacks signed new contracts in the first 48 hours of free agency, and Rock Ya-Sin’s contract is among those.
The former Baltimore Raven was ranked 153rd out of 223 qualifying cornerbacks by PFF last season and was Baltimore’s worst-ranked cornerback by SISdata (minimum eight games played).
The Jets gave Ya-Sin more guaranteed money than Green Bay gave fellow free agent cornerback Nate Hobbs (four years, $48 million, $16 million guaranteed), who ranked better in most metrics in 2024. Ya-Sin was one of the younger cornerbacks in free agency entering his age-28 season but this is banking on new head coach Aaron Glenn turning things around for the former Raven.
5. Demarcus Lawrence to the Seattle Seahawks: A Pricey Acquisition for an Aging, Injured Veteran?
The Seattle Seahawks addressed their defensive line by acquiring Demarcus Lawrence. While Lawrence is undeniably a talented player – he’s notched 13 sacks in his last 38 games and earned Pro Bowl selections in 2022 and 2023 – this signing comes with some caveats.
Lawrence is recovering from a season-ending foot injury sustained in 2024, which limited him to just four games. He’s also approaching his 33rd birthday. The Seahawks already have veteran Leonard Williams in-house and are armed with a wealth of top-100 picks in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Critics argue that for a relatively small increase in annual salary (approximately $3 million per year), the Seahawks could have pursued Chase Young, who is seven years younger. Alternatively, if they desired a proven veteran, Za’Darius Smith and Von Miller remained available at the time of the signing. If they prioritized youth and development, edge rusher Azeez Ojulari (entering his age-25 season) was also an option.
The Seahawks’ decision to sign Lawrence, given his age, injury history, and the available alternatives, raises questions about their overall strategy. It seems like an overpay for a player whose best years may be behind him.
Conclusion:
NFL free agency is a high-stakes game, and not every deal is a guaranteed success. While the majority of signings reflect sound team-building strategies, a select few have generated confusion and skepticism. Whether these head-scratching deals will ultimately prove to be shrewd investments or costly mistakes remains to be seen. Only time will tell if these teams can unlock the potential of their new acquisitions and justify the risks they’ve taken. The 2025 season will serve as the ultimate proving ground.
