Hurricane Hunter Cuts and Concerns Loom Over Upcoming Hurricane Season

The annual threat of hurricanes looms large for the Gulf Coast of the United States, where millions anxiously await each new forecast when a storm emerges from the Caribbean Sea. Landfall location, potential storm surge, and the reach of destructive winds and rain are critical unknowns that determine evacuation orders and preparation efforts in the critical hours before impact. The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) answers to these questions hinge on the invaluable data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) hurricane hunters, brave aircrews who fly directly into the heart of these powerful storms.

However, with the start of hurricane season fast approaching, a significant concern casts a shadow over these vital operations: potential disruptions caused by cost-cutting measures initiated by the Trump administration and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The recent termination of several probationary employees within the hurricane hunter program ignited fears about the program’s future viability, even though some of those employees have been reinstated.

The anxiety stems from the crucial role that hurricane hunter flights play in providing the NHC with the data needed to create accurate forecasts. These flights gather information about the storm’s intensity, track, and internal structure, which are fed into sophisticated computer models used to predict the hurricane’s path and impact. Any delay or degradation in these forecasts could have serious consequences for coastal communities.

Joshua Ripp, one of the recently rehired flight crew members, articulated the emotional rollercoaster he experienced after being initially dismissed. "First I was indifferent, then I was sad, then I was angry," he said, highlighting the personal impact of these abrupt job losses. Ripp also pointed out this was his first time unemployed since high school, underscoring the disruption caused by the termination.

NOAA is just one of several federal agencies that have had to reverse hasty terminations resulting from the Trump administration’s drive to reduce the size of the federal workforce and cut government spending. However, the probationary employees terminated by NOAA were only a small part of thousands of probationary employees dismissed across the federal government.

The employees were told in late February emails that they were "not fit for continued employment because your ability, knowledge and/or skills do not fit the Agency’s current needs." After USA TODAY inquired about whether exemptions for public safety should have applied to the terminations, three of the hurricane hunter flight crew members were sent emails stating that their jobs would be reinstated.

The reinstatement of these employees has not fully assuaged the worries within the weather and emergency management community. NOAA has announced plans to eliminate an additional 1,029 positions as part of the DOGE-driven reduction in force. The announcement included the news that some terminated workers, including interns, had been let go inadvertently.

Many of the employees who were terminated have commendable performance histories, with commendations, cash awards and positive reviews. NOAA declined to comment on the cuts other than to say it remains “dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience.”

Keeley Belva, a communications manager with NOAAs Office of Marine and Aviation Operations, wrote in an email, “We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission.”
Requests for comments to several U.S. Senators in Texas, Louisiana and Florida were not answered.

Former NOAA officials, including Craig McLean, a former chief scientist and assistant administrator for research, estimate the reduction in force will bring the total number of positions cut at the agency to between 15% to 20% of its 12,000 employees. That includes more than a dozen employees terminated at a hurricane modeling lab responsible for forecast improvements.

Former hurricane hunters and hurricane specialists are particularly concerned about the potential impact on the Aircraft Operations Center, which supports the critical around-the-clock coverage required in the days leading up to a hurricane landfall. Any further loss of positions at the aircraft operations center would have negative effects because there’s not a lot of staff depth.

The unique conditions in which hurricane hunter research flights operate necessitates full crews with highly specialized training. The data these crews collect is critical for hurricane center specialists and the computer models used to predict hurricane tracks and behavior.
According to James Franklin, a retired branch chief for the centers hurricane specialists, the centers forecasts of hurricane track, intensity and size would likely be degraded if a hurricane hunter flight could not fulfill a request from the hurricane center because of inadequate staffing or maintenance.

NOAA’s two WP-3D Orion aircraft collect Doppler radar data thats fed into the models, a capability that doesnt exist in the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft, Franklin said. “If a missed tasking occurred at the onset of rapid intensification, we could be 6-12 hours late in identifying it, delaying crucial forecast updates to emergency managers and coastal residents." Franklin also fears the cuts to NOAA labs that work on hurricane models will delay continued improvements in modeling.

The entire emergency management industry relies on the hurricane hunter flights for a variety of reasons, including adjustments to intensification, updated evacuation procedures and the ability to more closely pinpoint landfall locations, said Jill Trepanier, a hurricane climatologist and geographer who is a professor in Louisiana State Universitys geography and anthropology department. “Especially within the last decade or two when we think about the instrumentation those aircraft are carrying and their ability to get as close to the eyewall as possible, all of that provides information that we cant get from a satellite."

Ripp, one of the reinstated employees and a 20 year Navy veteran, says, “There is no government waste at the aircraft operations center. We do more with less than anybody else out there.” He also said that the Navy was using 15 people for one aircraft, the hurricane hunters are doing with six or seven for two aircraft.

Ripp described in simple terms why their work at the Aircraft Operations Center is important.
If you look at the hurricane center’s forecast cone graphic, the cone shrinks as the hurricane gets closer and closer, he said. “That’s because of the data that feeds back to the hurricane center. That’s what allows the computer models to refine the track. The more times you do this and the more data you feed into the model, the farther out you can get the predicted track to become more stable.”

Kerri Englert, a flight director, said that going back to work puts a long-time dream back on track. She has been fascinated by hurricanes since she was 14, when she and her family rode out Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. Shes written about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X.