ACC Tournament Preview: Duke Favored in Wide-Open Field; Former Powerhouses Struggle
The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) basketball tournament is upon us, but this year’s edition carries a different feel. While the conference itself expanded to 18 teams, the tournament field remains fixed at 15, leaving three teams on the outside looking in. This exclusion is particularly poignant given the recent struggles of some traditionally strong programs, highlighting a conference grappling with parity and a shift in power dynamics. Making the field are the three new teams that joined the conference, creating an interesting dynamic of new blood trying to compete with long established teams.
Adding insult to injury, the defending tournament champion, North Carolina State, will not be participating, a stark contrast to their improbable run to the Final Four last year. Similarly, Miami (Fla.), a Final Four participant just two seasons ago, also finds itself on the sidelines. The rapid decline of these programs exemplifies the conference’s current state, where numerous schools with historical hardwood success are struggling to maintain their footing.
Despite these challenges, the ACC still boasts talented teams poised to make noise in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, commonly known as the Big Dance. However, for most of the teams competing in Charlotte, North Carolina, this week, the primary objective is likely securing a bid to the National Invitation Tournament (NIT), a secondary postseason competition. Unless a team outside the top three pulls off a stunning upset, only a few ACC squads are likely to hear their names called on Selection Sunday for the more prestigious tournament.
Tournament Overview and Key Matchups
The tournament commences with the first round on Tuesday, featuring matchups between lower-seeded teams vying for a chance to advance. This year’s tournament already saw Notre Dame edging out Pittsburgh in a close contest, California prevailing over Virginia Tech in a double-overtime thriller, and Syracuse defeating Florida State. The second round on Wednesday promises further excitement, with Georgia Tech already having defeated Virginia and North Carolina handling Notre Dame. Still to come are Stanford playing California and SMU vs Syracuse.
The quarterfinals on Thursday showcase the top seeds entering the fray. Duke, as the top seed, faces Georgia Tech, while Wake Forest takes on North Carolina in a highly anticipated contest. Louisville will play the winner of the Stanford-California matchup, and Clemson will battle the winner of the SMU-Syracuse game.
The semifinals on Friday pit the quarterfinal winners against each other, setting the stage for a championship showdown on Saturday night. The winner of the Duke-Georgia Tech versus Wake Forest-North Carolina game will face the winner of the Louisville-Stanford/California versus Clemson-SMU/Syracuse game.
The Favorites and Key Players
Despite the conference’s overall volatility, Duke stands out as the clear favorite to win the tournament. The Blue Devils have dominated ACC play, with only two of their 19 conference wins decided by single digits. Since their lone conference loss to Clemson in early February, they have been on a tear, winning their last eight games by an average margin of over 28 points.
Their primary challengers are expected to be Clemson and second-seeded Louisville. Louisville, under the guidance of first-year coach Pat Kelsey, has orchestrated a remarkable turnaround, transforming from a bottom-dweller to a contender.
Several players are poised to make a significant impact on the tournament:
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Cooper Flagg, G, Duke: The face of the Duke program and arguably the entire conference, Flagg is a freshman sensation and a candidate for national player of the year honors. He leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and assists.
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Kon Knueppel, G, Duke: The Blue Devils’ second-leading scorer, Knueppel is a deadly three-point shooter and a reliable free-throw shooter.
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Chase Hunter, G, Clemson: A veteran guard, Hunter is a dynamic scorer who can contribute from all levels. His experience will be crucial for the Tigers’ success.
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Chucky Hepburn, G, Louisville: A transfer from Wisconsin, Hepburn has quickly become the cornerstone of the Cardinals’ rebuild, leading the team in scoring and assists.
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RJ Davis, G, North Carolina: Despite some struggles, Davis, the reigning ACC player of the year, has been playing well down the stretch and remains a key player for the Tar Heels.
NCAA Tournament Implications and Bubble Watch
Currently, the ACC is projected to have three teams receive automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament, meaning their spots are secure. Those would most likely be Duke, Louisville, and Clemson. Beyond that, the picture becomes murkier, with no clear "bubble" teams on the fringes of selection.
The second quarterfinal contest between Wake Forest and, most likely, North Carolina is not a true elimination game for NCAA Tournament hopes. The winner would still need to perform well in the later rounds to strengthen their case. North Carolina might have an at-large case if it makes the tournament final. SMU, despite being a lower seed, could potentially earn two crucial Quad 1 wins, but it might not be enough to secure a bid given their current lack of such victories. The Mustangs would need to make it far in the tournament to be considered.
Historical Trends and Potential Upsets
The ACC Tournament has a history of producing unexpected results. The top seed hasn’t won the tournament since Virginia in 2018, highlighting the unpredictability of the single-elimination format.
While Duke is the overwhelming favorite, several teams are capable of pulling off an upset. Clemson’s experience and Louisville’s resurgence make them dangerous opponents. Wake Forest and North Carolina, despite their inconsistencies, possess the talent to make a deep run. Additionally, teams like Syracuse or Stanford, if they can gain momentum early, could surprise some of the higher seeds.
Conclusion
The 2024 ACC Tournament promises to be a compelling event, albeit one with a different narrative than in years past. The absence of traditional powerhouses like North Carolina State and Miami underscores the changing landscape of the conference. While Duke is the clear favorite, the tournament field is filled with teams eager to prove themselves and secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Expect intense competition, potential upsets, and a tournament that will ultimately shape the ACC’s representation in the Big Dance. Whether a perennial contender continues their reign or a dark horse emerges victorious remains to be seen, but the drama and excitement are sure to unfold in Charlotte. The tournament represents a critical opportunity for teams to improve their standing and achieve their postseason aspirations, making it a must-watch for college basketball fans.
