The Shifting Sands: Economic Transformation and the Gendered Political Divide
The burgeoning political chasm between young men and women is a prominent feature of contemporary politics, sparking extensive debate and analysis. In the United States, Donald Trump’s support among men under 30 witnessed a notable surge, climbing from 41 percent to 56 percent within a four-year span. This phenomenon is not confined to American borders; globally, young men are demonstrating a greater inclination towards right-wing parties and politicians compared to their female peers. South Korea exemplifies this trend, with a striking 25-percentage-point gender gap in support for the deposed President Yoon Suk Yeol among voters under 30.
The roots of this division are multifaceted and have been subjected to exhaustive scrutiny. Social media platforms and the proliferation of "manosphere" content creators, such as Andrew Tate and Joe Rogan, play a significant role in propagating right-wing ideologies. Widespread isolation, particularly among younger demographics, amplifies the influence of social media, resulting in a distorted public sphere where biased algorithms skew preferences.
The advances women have made in the public sphere over the last five years have contributed to this divide. Trump has capitalized on anxieties about such gains, as well as longer-simmering grievances and tensions, to advance his reactionary agenda.
While discussions often center on electoral strategy, social issues like transgender rights and the Me Too movement, and critiques of activist approaches, the underlying reality is more intricate. Although younger men exhibit more conservative leanings on certain issues, voting patterns do not appear to be driven by fundamental policy disagreements. Surveys of American voters reveal that men and women largely concur on the issues they deem most important and generally place their trust in the same parties to address them effectively.
The key to understanding the widening gender divide lies not in the culture war, but in the economic shifts that have reshaped the landscape over the past half-century. To decipher the diverging values between men and women, it is essential to comprehend the origins of fundamental values, such as support for democracy, which are rooted in prior experiences, particularly during the formative years of adolescence and young adulthood.
Economic security serves as a cornerstone. Support for democracy is contingent upon its ability to deliver tangible benefits. Consequently, rising economic inequality and sluggish economic growth, trends that have intensified in recent decades, correlate with a widespread shift towards the radical, anti-democratic, and misogynistic right. In the United States and Europe, for instance, the rise in wealth inequality and the deceleration of economic growth are associated with increased support for far-right parties. In Brazil, rising unemployment led to increased attendance at conservative evangelical churches, which, in turn, bolstered support for far-right candidates. The clearest evidence comes from Nazi Germany, where areas most severely affected by Weimar Era austerity programs witnessed the greatest surge in support for Adolf Hitler.
Social trust, defined as trust in the government, institutions, and fellow citizens, is a second critical factor underpinning support for democracy. Economics again plays a pivotal role, with economic deprivation and income inequality linked to diminished social trust. Voters facing adverse economic circumstances are consistently more likely to embrace a zero-sum mindset, believing that one person’s gain necessarily comes at the expense of another. This mentality undermines support for progressive, anti-individualistic, or cosmopolitan values, whereas non-zero-sum values and high social trust correlate with more liberal viewpoints. Studies consistently demonstrate that job insecurity fosters sexist views, particularly among European men, and the belief that women’s advancement has come at their expense. Chinese men facing adverse economic conditions also exhibit greater hostility towards women and more pronounced sexism, while British men who grew up in regions with high unemployment report less agreement with progressive and feminist statements.
The question remains: why do these broad economic conditions and their associated effects on trust and political values not equally affect men and women, driving both rightward? The answer lies in the transformation of developed and middle-income economies, particularly from the 1970s onwards, with a marked acceleration in the 1990s. The decline of manufacturing and the rise of service jobs, driven by trade, lower unionization, and automation, have led to a bifurcation of the labor market into lower-paying "manual" occupations and higher-paying "cognitive" jobs.
ATMs illustrate this shift, eliminating the well-paid, low-education job of bank teller and replacing it with low-paying customer service roles and higher-paying financial services positions. The Great Recession further entrenched this split, with the cognitive track adding 8.4 million jobs after 2007, while the manual job track lost 5.5 million jobs. Manufacturing, traditionally a male-dominated sector, suffered a decline, leaving men with fewer job opportunities, particularly as the skills required in manufacturing evolved to necessitate more education. Consequently, men without college degrees lost their position as the second-highest earning group, trailing only college-educated men. Cuts to social services disproportionately affected men due to their higher likelihood of criminal involvement.
The decline of manufacturing has also made men less "marriageable," contributing to lower fertility rates. Furthermore, the other major sector employing "unskilled" men, construction, experienced significant setbacks after the Great Recession and has not fully recovered. Men also face disadvantages in the "care economy" segment of the manual sector, partly due to cultural factors.
In contrast, the growth in the cognitive sector has benefited women. Women have surpassed men in high school performance, college enrollment, and college graduation, giving them an edge in securing high-paying cognitive jobs. Complex factors contribute to this trend, including neurological differences. Research suggests that male teachers are more effective in teaching boys than female teachers.
Moreover, the advantage extends into the knowledge sector job market. Women tend to possess stronger "social" skills, which are in greater demand in the cognitive sector. Flexible work arrangements, increasingly common, have also benefited women, who tend to value flexibility more. While men benefit over their female coworkers due to fast-tracked promotions and relationships with male superiors, the reluctance of boomer bosses to retire crowds out younger men from top jobs. This dynamic has been particularly important for men’s beliefs on gender issues, with an increase in support of traditional gender roles and more far-right viewpoints.
When manufacturing declined, male workers struggled to adapt, leading to lower social trust, zero-sum mindsets, and more regressive gender norms. The online vitriol against a “Gen Z boss and a mini” video is a prime example. This laid the groundwork for the far-right resurgence, even before considering the influence of the manosphere and algorithms.
Sociologist Zygmunt Bauman argued that the shift from a manufacturing to a cognitive economy resulted in men losing their social role as producers and providers, while women transitioned away from being caretakers, with both becoming consumers. However, Bauman overlooked the fact that traditional gender norms make the identity of "consumers" less appealing to men, who tend to spend less on "frivolous" items. Feminist messages, such as those in "Lean In," empowered women to embrace their roles in business. Traditional roles as caretakers have not actually been rejected to a large extent, leaving women with many avenues to personal satisfaction while also abandoning men “in crisis.”
The crisis of masculinity presents an opportunity to redefine men’s roles in an inclusive way that encompasses both caretaking and producing. Given the unlikelihood of a resurgence of manufacturing as a dominant economic force, direct attempts to raise social trust by returning men to the factory line seem unfeasible.
The positive is that most young men are not virulent misogynists: sexist views among boys are less common than those same boys think, and this lack of openness keeps them from expressing their real beliefs. Breaking out of the "sexism trap" is possible by encouraging people to express their true views, fostering cross-gender friendships and in-depth conversations, and building a more prosperous and functional government and economy. Positive experiences with democracy and market-based economies enhance support for these systems and strengthen social trust. A world of social connection and prosperity has the power to displace the anti-democratic values bred by loneliness and economic deprivation.
