The Inevitable Ascent: When, Not If, a Woman Will Lead the United States

As Women’s History Month prompts reflection on the contributions of women in America, a critical question arises: when will the United States finally elect a woman as president? Rather than questioning the possibility of such an event, we should focus on its inevitability. The progress women have achieved in recent decades, coupled with evolving attitudes towards women’s leadership, makes the election of a woman to the highest office a matter of time, not chance.

Over the past 30 years, the number of women elected to public office has grown steadily across all levels of government. From local executive positions to national legislative roles, women have increasingly secured positions of power on both sides of the political spectrum. The Center for American Women and Politics reports that over 60 women have served in the U.S. Senate and 51 have served as governors.

Beyond government, women have shattered barriers in the private sector, occupying leadership positions in Fortune 500 companies, entertainment, and sports. They have also served as Cabinet secretaries, justices on the U.S. Supreme Court, labor leaders, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, attorneys general, and even as Vice President of the United States.

We have witnessed women running for president on Republican, independent, and Democratic Party tickets. Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton both became Democratic nominees for the presidency, and both major political parties have nominated women for the vice presidency. These milestones demonstrate a growing comfort among the American electorate with voting for women in executive leadership roles. The momentum is undeniable. Women have demonstrated their capabilities in every realm of elected leadership, from local offices to the highest echelons of national governance.

While the path to the presidency remains challenging, the question is no longer whether a woman will be elected, but when. This isn’t to diminish the significant hurdles women face. Women leaders, especially political candidates, continue to grapple with unique barriers and biases. Research from the nonpartisan Barbara Lee Family Foundation for two decades has highlighted challenges women candidates encounter when running for executive office, irrespective of their political affiliation.

One of the most significant challenges is the pervasive perception that male candidates are inherently qualified, while women must constantly prove their competence to gain voter trust, regardless of their resume. This requirement persists even when two women compete against each other; both are expected to continually demonstrate their qualifications. Showcasing crisis management and problem-solving skills becomes vital for women candidates to overcome skepticism and build voter confidence.

Another crucial aspect is the importance of "likability," and the unique factors that influence it for women. Voters are generally more willing to support a qualified man, even if they don’t particularly like him. However, likability plays a much more critical role for women candidates, an intangible yet essential quality often difficult for voters to define.

Research suggests that a combination of style and substance, along with clear demonstrations of qualifications, significantly contributes to perceptions of likability for women. Women candidates must strike a delicate balance between strength and empathy to be perceived as both competent and relatable.

Furthermore, women candidates are disproportionately targeted by misinformation and disinformation campaigns, as highlighted by the #ShePersisted movement. Women of color face an even greater burden, experiencing disinformation at twice the rate of other candidates. Sexist, racist, and extremist attacks can be particularly damaging, undermining perceptions of a woman’s qualifications, likability, and alignment with key voter priorities.

While an increasing number of Americans have voted for women at various levels of office, and nearly 10 million more people voted for a woman for president in 2024 (75 million) than in 2016 (65.8 million), demographic and structural challenges persist.

Democratic women and Republican women face distinct challenges. A Democratic candidate must navigate the gatekeeping of party elites and primary voters who may worry that other voters won’t support a woman. A Republican candidate must contend with Republican primary voters’ strong aversion to identity politics.

Could a scenario where both the Republican and Democratic Parties nominate women be the key to electing a woman president? Mexico recently witnessed such a scenario, leading to the election of Claudia Sheinbaum, the country’s first woman president. Mexico joins 59 other United Nations member states that have been led by women.

While women candidates would still face unique challenges, nominations from both major parties would at least guarantee that one would be elected. Since 2000, 12 women have run for president in the Democratic and Republican parties.

The United States does have a precedent for women running against one another in high-profile elections. In 2022, 25 women were nominated for governor by both major parties. In five of those contests – Alabama, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, and Oregon – women faced off directly. In 2024, New Hampshire voters chose between two women nominees, and voters in Virginia will likely do the same later this year.

Currently, 13 Republican and Democratic women serve as governor – a record number. Governorships have long been considered a stepping stone to the presidency. This record-breaking number of women in gubernatorial roles could signal a shift, potentially paving the way for more women to pursue the nation’s highest office in the future.

The contributions of pollsters like Celinda Lake, who served as one of Joe Biden’s lead pollsters in 2020, and Amanda Iovino, who led polling for Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 gubernatorial campaign, further demonstrate the growing influence of women in the political arena. The insights of political commentators like Karen Finney, a senior advisor to Hillary Clinton in 2016, also contribute to shaping the national conversation around women in politics.

The convergence of increased representation at all levels of government, the breaking of barriers in various sectors, and evolving societal attitudes makes it clear that the election of a woman as president of the United States is not merely a possibility but an inevitable eventuality. The focus should now be on dismantling the remaining barriers and biases that hinder women’s progress, paving the way for the moment when a woman finally takes her place in the Oval Office. The question is not if, but when.