The Gutting of America’s Weather Forecasting System: A Looming Crisis

Have you checked the weather forecast today? Be it on your smartphone, the 5-day outlook in the newspaper, or via a televised weather report, that forecast hinges on a vast, government-operated network of sensors and computers. This network, though rarely acknowledged, consistently delivers accurate predictions. But this critical system is now being dismantled, piece by piece.

NOAA, the primary U.S. science agency responsible for weather and climate research, has lost at least 2,000 employees since January through layoffs, buyouts, and retirements, and further cuts are anticipated. The White House aims to slash NOAA’s $6 billion budget by nearly 30%. Consequently, efforts to enhance forecast accuracy will stagnate, and the reliability of current forecasts may decline.

Weather forecasts are far more than just a guide for umbrella usage; they are vital for informed decision-making in air travel, agriculture, shipping, and energy production. More importantly, they save lives.

In April, the central and southern United States were battered by severe spring floods. The National Weather Service (NWS) at NOAA issued warnings ahead of the storms, forecasting upwards of 15 inches of rainfall. An NWS bulletin on April 2 warned of "generational flooding with devastating impacts."

The subsequent storms and floods claimed at least 24 lives, yet given the expansive area affected, the death toll could have been far higher. Scientists at the World Weather Attribution research group reported that accurate storm predictions and effective emergency management were instrumental in minimizing casualties. These forecasts and alerts were the result of decades of investment in nationwide infrastructure.

Friederike Otto, a climatologist leading World Weather Attribution, noted that the U.S. National Weather Service predicted the floods a week in advance and issued ongoing warnings. As a result, residents knew when to evacuate, keeping the death toll relatively low compared to similar events.

However, recent government cuts are eroding the data that informs these crucial predictions and diminishing the ranks of the scientists who generate them. The National Weather Service has struggled with understaffing for years, and recent dismissals have worsened the situation as the U.S. enters another summer of potentially extreme weather. Of the 122 NWS forecast offices nationwide, 30 currently lack a chief meteorologist.

As more people reside in vulnerable areas and global temperatures continue to climb, the devastation from extreme weather is intensifying. Even regions historically spared from severe heat and torrential rain are experiencing dangerous weather with increasing frequency. Predicting weather is thus more vital than ever, which makes the erosion of U.S. forecasting capabilities so alarming.

Weather prediction begins with measurements of the earth, sky, and sea, often taken from great distances. For instance, a thunderstorm in the southeastern U.S. may originate in the Pacific Ocean weeks earlier. As Alan Sealls, president of the American Meteorological Society, explains, "It all starts with data."

This data is gathered from various sources, ranging from sophisticated geostationary satellites to simple weather balloons. Twice daily, the National Weather Service launches helium-filled balloons from 92 sites across the country, capturing snapshots of temperature, humidity, and wind speed as they ascend into the atmosphere. This data informs not only U.S. weather models but also global models that predict weather patterns worldwide.

According to Sealls, weather balloons provide uniquely detailed and precise data. Without them in areas prone to hazardous weather, forecast accuracy diminishes. NOAA has established one of the world’s most robust weather monitoring systems, collecting 6.3 billion observations per day from balloons, radars, satellites, buoys, aircraft measurements, and ground instruments. The National Weather Service then feeds this data into computer models to forecast extreme weather events. Almost all of this information is freely available to the public.

While raw data is publicly accessible, most people rely on user-friendly weather apps or local experts for their forecasts. Meteorologists at news agencies or private companies use government data and models to generate localized predictions, incorporating their expertise and experience. This explains why forecasts on TV, in newspapers, and in weather apps can vary. However, all these sources rely on the foundational government data, especially during dangerous weather events. Sealls emphasizes that the National Weather Service is the central point for all weather forecasting in the United States.

Government researchers are continuously improving weather forecasting. Today’s 5-day forecast is as accurate as a 1-day forecast from 1980, and a 72-hour hurricane track prediction is now more accurate than a 24-hour prediction from decades ago. The National Weather Service’s annual budget is only $1.3 billion, yet its services provide billions of dollars in economic benefits and save countless lives. NOAA is currently testing improved hurricane and tropical storm models that could offer up to five days of lead time.

However, budget and staffing cuts have already forced some NWS sites to reduce or eliminate weather balloon launches. Pamela Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia extension, notes that recent retirements and layoffs have left some stations unable to launch balloons.

Since weather models heavily rely on real-world measurements from weather balloons, their loss can degrade forecast quality. Staff reductions may also lead to inadequate maintenance of equipment like radars, resulting in more outages, and can hinder the provision of timely emergency alerts. Knox warns that we are becoming more blind due to the loss of data, especially during extreme weather events that require real-time data. Fewer staff increase the likelihood of crucial information being overlooked.

Compounding the issue, climate change is altering historical weather patterns across much of the country, and continued warming will exacerbate these trends. The World Weather Attribution team estimates that the extreme rainfall in the U.S. in April was two to five times more likely due to warming, and its intensity increased by 13 to 26 percent.

Yet, amidst these increasingly obvious impacts, the government is cutting climate research. The White House’s budget proposal specifically targets climate-focused research, data, and grant programs that are deemed misaligned with Administration policy. The U.S. once had a system for anticipating these long-term threats, but the government dismissed all scientists working on the National Climate Assessment, a report mandated by law to assess the current and future impacts of climate change on the country.

The result is a nation facing increasing threats from natural forces while actively undermining its ability to prepare for them.