Has Lincoln Riley Finally Found the Key to USC’s Success?

Amidst the constant noise surrounding college football’s evolving landscape – name, image, and likeness deals, the transfer portal frenzy, and the legal battles swirling around the sport – a compelling narrative is quietly unfolding at the University of Southern California. It’s a story of potential resurgence, a glimmer of hope that head coach Lincoln Riley might have finally cracked the code to unlocking the Trojans’ storied potential.

The comparison to Pete Carroll’s era is unavoidable. Carroll, with his infectious energy and keen eye for talent, transformed USC into a dominant force in the 2000s. He revitalized a program that had long been underperforming, establishing a dynasty built on a simple yet effective formula: recruit top-tier athletes, develop them into elite players, and consistently compete for championships.

Riley’s arrival at USC generated immense excitement. He was hailed as an offensive mastermind, a quarterback whisperer, and a proven winner. However, his initial tenure has been marked by inconsistency. While the Trojans have showcased flashes of brilliance, they haven’t consistently lived up to the lofty expectations that accompany the program.

Despite the mixed results on the field, there are signs that Riley is beginning to lay the foundation for sustained success. The Trojans currently boast the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class according to the 247Sports Composite. This achievement is particularly noteworthy considering that it comes at a time when the program is still searching for its identity under Riley’s leadership.

The fact that Riley has secured such a highly-regarded recruiting class despite the lack of immediate championship contention should raise eyebrows among coaches and general managers across the country. They understand the potential of USC when the program is operating at full capacity, when the Trojans are once again a national powerhouse.

Riley’s recent record of 15-13 in his last 28 games at USC is undeniably underwhelming for a program of its stature. The university’s significant financial investment in Riley, including a substantial buyout for his predecessor, underscores the immense pressure he faces to deliver results.

However, there’s a sense that something shifted towards the end of last season. The Trojans capped off the year with a physical bowl victory over Texas A&M, adding to an earlier win against LSU. These victories against SEC opponents, known for their strong tradition and physicality, provided a tangible boost to the program’s image.

This momentum has carried over into the offseason, fueling the Trojans’ recruiting efforts for the 2025 and 2026 classes. The program’s focus on building organically through high school recruiting, coupled with the emergence of quarterback Jayden Maiava, has allowed Riley to exercise restraint in the transfer portal.

The decision to pass on Tennessee transfer Nico Iamaleava, a highly sought-after quarterback, is a significant departure from Riley’s previous approach. In the past, he might have been tempted to pursue a quick fix, throwing money at a transfer in an attempt to immediately elevate the roster. Now, he’s demonstrating faith in Maiava and the young players he and his staff have recruited and developed.

"It’s a together team right now," Riley stated recently. "Let’s put things right in front of these guys because they want to be great. They want to be coached hard, they want to be pushed."

This shift in mindset, this emphasis on team cohesion and player development, could be the defining moment of Riley’s tenure at USC. It transcends the fleeting glory of Caleb Williams’ Heisman Trophy season and represents a genuine step forward in building a sustainable program.

The university’s $120 million investment in Riley, including the buyout of former coach Clay Helton, is a testament to their belief in his ability to transform the program. The 2024 season, marred by six losses, offered glimpses of potential. Four of those losses were by a combined 12 points, and five were decided by a single possession.

The USC job is not without its challenges. Pete Carroll’s charisma and his natural fit within the Los Angeles culture played a crucial role in reviving the program. Carroll’s ability to make USC football relevant in a city saturated with entertainment options was remarkable.

Expecting Riley, a lifelong Texan, to seamlessly replicate Carroll’s success is unrealistic. The transition from Muleshoe, Texas, or even Norman, Oklahoma, to the glitz and glamour of Los Angeles is significant.

A record of 15-13 in the last 28 games is simply not acceptable at USC. It raises questions about whether the university made the right choice in hiring Riley.

USC is investing heavily in Riley and his staff, and they are committed to providing the necessary NIL resources to attract top talent. The expectation is clear: the Trojans must start winning consistently, and they must avoid losses to teams like Minnesota and Maryland.

Riley believes in the current team and its chemistry. He is encouraged by their work ethic and their commitment to improvement. However, to restore USC to national prominence, he must start winning now. He needs to demonstrate that the program is on the verge of achieving the sustained success that has become increasingly rare in college football.

The 2026 recruiting class is currently ranked as the best in the nation, and USC remains in contention for several of the top players in the 247Sports Composite.

The momentum is building quietly, often overshadowed by the constant changes occurring within the sport.

"There seems to be a genuine bond right now with these guys that’s fun to see," Riley said.

If Riley has truly figured out the formula for success at USC, the Trojans will eventually become a formidable force on the national stage.