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The Misleading Numbers Game: Unpacking the Aid to Ukraine

Donald Trump’s persistent repetition of a staggering $350 billion figure for US aid to Ukraine has become a central point of contention, a number so inflated it barely resembles reality. Since returning to the political stage, Trump has relentlessly asserted that the United States has poured nearly $350 billion (or €335 billion) into supporting Ukraine since the Russian invasion in 2022. This vastly exaggerated sum is wielded as leverage, seemingly aimed at pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to concede ground and compromise, potentially granting access to Ukraine’s valuable mineral resources.

The issue recently came to a head during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to the White House. Macron visibly displayed his frustration as Trump, once again, invoked his $350 billion claim, contrasting it with the "mere" $100 billion in loans allegedly provided by the European Union (EU). Macron firmly corrected his American counterpart, emphasizing that European financial and military support, much like that from the United States, is structured through a combination of credits, guarantees, and direct allocations.

But what are the real figures? What is the truth behind the numbers?

The $350 billion figure championed by Trump is demonstrably false. Official records show that since 2022, the US Congress has approved five distinct aid packages, totaling approximately $175 billion in both financial and military assistance. However, it is crucial to understand that only a portion of this total, around $106 billion, has been directly allocated to the Ukrainian government. The remainder has been channeled into funding American arms manufacturers and bolstering the US defense industry.

This distribution method is a significant point often overlooked in the public discourse. As explained by the Council on Foreign Relations, a prominent US-based think tank, a substantial portion of the aid is actually spent within the United States. It goes towards paying American factories and workers who manufacture the weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine, as well as replenishing the US military’s own stockpiles, which were depleted as the Pentagon supplied arms to Ukraine during the ongoing conflict. Therefore, while the aid undeniably benefits Ukraine, it also serves to stimulate the US economy and strengthen its national defense capabilities.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the European Union and its member states have collectively provided approximately €135 billion in financial and military aid to Ukraine since 2022, according to data from the European Council. Looking ahead, a further €50 billion in financial assistance has been formally approved to support Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts between 2024 and 2027. This substantial investment is specifically designed to finance essential reforms that will pave the way for Ukraine’s eventual accession to the EU.

While estimates of the total aid provided to Ukraine may vary depending on the methodologies used and what exactly is being counted, no credible accounting supports Trump’s assertions. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a highly respected German research institution renowned for its expertise in global economic monitoring, estimates the total European aid to Ukraine at approximately €113 billion by the end of 2024.

Giuseppe Irto, an analyst at the Kiel Institute, explains the organization’s methodology, stating, "We only consider direct aid to Ukraine, while the EU takes into account all aid, including training for Ukrainian soldiers outside the country, or aid to countries neighboring Ukraine such as Moldova." This distinction highlights the differences in how aid is categorized and accounted for, which can lead to discrepancies in the reported figures.

The disparity between US and EU aid becomes even more apparent when viewed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Even when accounting for this, the US expenditure on Ukraine remains significantly lower than that of the EU and several of its member states.

Adding another layer to the complexity, Trump has also criticized the EU for allegedly providing aid to Ukraine solely in the form of loans. "I discovered a few months ago that the money they spent, they get back. But the money we spent, we don’t get back!" he exclaimed during a recent cabinet meeting at the White House.

This claim is, again, a gross exaggeration. According to the European Commission, of the €135.4 billion in aid already disbursed by the EU, only 35% (or €47.4 billion) has been provided as repayable loans. Furthermore, experts point out that these loans are subject to highly favorable conditions, and there is no guarantee that they will be fully repaid in the future.

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, an economist at the Bruegel Institute, a prominent European think tank based in Brussels, uses the example of the aid provided to Greece in the early 2010s as a precedent. "Europe often chooses to modify the conditions of loans over time so that they eventually become a subsidy for the beneficiary," he explains.

Kirkegaard emphasizes that, regardless of how the EU finances Ukraine, it will be structured in a way that enables the country to continue fighting and avoids burdening it with immediate repayment obligations.

In contrast, the vast majority of US aid has been provided as direct grants, as confirmed by the Congressional Research Service, an independent entity affiliated with the US Congress. Faced with Trump’s desire for reimbursement, Zelensky has stood firm, stating, "I do not recognize that Kiev owes even $100 billion [to the United States]. We agreed with Mr. Biden that it was a grant. A grant is not a debt."

Trump has also repeatedly implied that the EU is somehow unfairly advantaged in its support for Ukraine. "The United States has spent $200 billion more than Europe, and yet it is Europe’s money that is guaranteed while the United States will receive nothing in return," he wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social. This statement suggests that Europeans have access to a potential windfall to recoup their investments, possibly through the frozen Russian assets held in Europe due to sanctions imposed since 2022.

Macron, addressing this specific issue in Washington, clarified that the EU cannot access these assets. "We have $230 billion of frozen assets, but it is not to compensate [our loans], because these assets do not belong to us. They are frozen. If, in the end, during negotiations with Russia, they are willing to give them to us, great!"

The European Commission estimates that financial institutions in EU member states hold €210 billion in assets belonging to the Russian central bank, representing the majority of immobilized assets worldwide.

During Joe Biden’s presidency, the United States had advocated for the outright confiscation of Russian public assets, a move that European nations resisted. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, warned in April 2024 that seizing the assets could trigger "a break in the international order that we want to protect and that we would like to see respected by Russia," potentially leading to a loss of confidence from third-party countries.

Instead of seizing the frozen assets, the European Council decided in May 2024 to utilize the interest they generate – between €2.5 and €3 billion per year – to support Ukraine. In July 2024, €1.5 billion was allocated to support Kiev. In October 2024, the EU and G7 partners agreed to use the interest from the frozen Russian central bank assets to fully finance €45 billion in aid. The ultimate fate of the €210 billion in Russian assets frozen in Europe could be a topic of negotiation with Russia as part of a peace agreement, with the funds potentially being used for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

In conclusion, the narrative surrounding the aid to Ukraine is complex and often distorted. While the United States has provided significant support, the inflated figures presented by Donald Trump are demonstrably false and serve a political purpose. Understanding the nuances of how aid is structured, who benefits, and the broader geopolitical context is crucial for a more accurate and informed perspective on this critical issue.