The Kurdish Conflict: Peace Process Reignited
The recent resurgence of peace talks between the Turkish government and the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) presents a potential turning point in the decades-long conflict. Despite a setback in 2015, the government has signaled a shift in its approach, sparking hope for a resolution.
Origins and History of the PKK
Established in the late 1970s, the PKK is a militant organization fighting for Kurdish autonomy within Turkey. Its roots lie in the Kurdish-populated areas of southeastern Turkey, and its leadership operates from the Kandil Mountains in Iraq. The PKK’s primary goal has been to achieve Kurdish self-determination, initially through the establishment of an independent Kurdish state but later through increased autonomy within Turkey.
The PKK is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union. Its campaign for autonomy has involved decades of violence, resulting in numerous casualties, including civilians.
Abdullah Öcalan: Leader and Symbol
Abdullah Öcalan, a former student leader, became a prominent figure in the Kurdish movement even before the PKK’s founding. Upon its establishment in 1978, Öcalan became the PKK’s first chairman and has remained its leader ever since. Under his guidance, the PKK adopted a socialist-revolutionary ideology, framing its struggle as an anti-colonial and national liberation movement.
In 1999, Öcalan was captured by the Turkish intelligence service in Nairobi, Kenya, and brought to Turkey. He was sentenced to death, which was later commuted to life imprisonment. Since then, Öcalan has been held on the prison island of İmralı in the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul, spending many years in isolation.
The Conflict and Peace Efforts
The Kurdish conflict has a long and tumultuous history, rooted in the efforts of the Turkish Republic’s founding father, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, to establish an ethnically homogeneous nation. This led to the assimilation of the Kurdish minority and a suppression of their cultural and linguistic identity. Resistance to this oppression emerged in Turkey as well as in neighboring Syria, Iran, and Iraq, where Kurdish populations also reside.
In the 1970s, Turkey experienced a period of civil strife between leftist and rightist groups, culminating in a military coup in 1980. The PKK resumed its insurgency shortly after. The ensuing conflict between the outlawed organization and the Turkish state resulted in tens of thousands of deaths.
In the early 2000s, then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan presented himself as a potential mediator in the conflict, introducing political reforms and granting increased freedoms to Kurds. The early 2010s witnessed direct negotiations between the government and the PKK, leading to a ceasefire.
However, this progress was short-lived. In the summer of 2015, the pro-Kurdish HDP party surpassed the electoral threshold and entered parliament, while the ruling AKP lost its majority. Following a bombing in the Kurdish city of Suruç in July, violence escalated, with the PKK claiming the Turkish state had effectively ended the ceasefire. The organization carried out attacks, and the conflict between the PKK and Turkish security forces reignited.
Current Peace Process
After the collapse of negotiations in 2015 and the subsequent violent conflict in southeastern Turkey, the prospect of peace seemed remote. However, in autumn 2024, Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the ultra-nationalist MHP party, initiated a new push for peace. He openly discussed the possibility of releasing Öcalan, but linked it to the PKK’s disarmament. The MHP is a coalition partner of Erdoğan’s AKP.
According to Hürcan Aslı Aksoy, director of the Center for Applied Turkey Studies in Berlin, the MHP’s shift in position reflects their understanding that a ceasefire is necessary in the changing regional environment. Aksoy also attributes this shift to the outcome of recent local elections, in which the Turkish government faced significant challenges from opposition parties. By engaging in a new peace process, the government is attempting to limit the opposition’s influence on the Kurdish issue.
Recent Developments and Challenges
President Erdoğan endorsed Bahçeli’s proposal, echoing his statement that "a Turk who does not love Kurds is not a Turk, and a Kurd who does not love Turks is not a Kurd" – a surprising declaration from a Turkish government official.
Following this, PKK leader Öcalan received a rare visit from members of the pro-Kurdish DEM party (formerly HDP) on the island prison of İmralı. The DEM later announced that the 75-year-old Öcalan would soon issue a "historic call" for the resolution of the Turkish-Kurdish conflict. Kurdish politicians expect this call to be made no later than the Kurdish New Year festival of Newroz on March 20th.
Concurrent with the ongoing negotiations, Turkish authorities have been cracking down on suspected PKK members, supporters, and sympathizers. Several Kurdish mayors have been deposed on terrorism charges, and numerous individuals have been arrested in subsequent demonstrations. In addition, raids against the PKK have resulted in around 300 arrests.
Observers have described the government’s approach as a "dual strategy": pursuing peace talks and the disbandment of the PKK while simultaneously increasing pressure through arrests, raids, and legal proceedings. Türkeiforscherin Aksoy explains that this combination of outreach and repression is driven by the government’s desire to maintain power.
International and Regional Factors
According to Aksoy, the Turkish-Kurdish conflict is directly influenced by the power dynamics in Syria. If the status of Kurds in Syria is clarified, such as through their recognition in a new Syrian constitution, this will have "direct consequences for the Kurdish movement in Turkey."
Under long-time ruler Bashar al-Assad, Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria achieved relative autonomy, based on a precarious but necessary collaboration with the Syrian dictator. After his downfall, this autonomy is threatened. Turkey, whose military has been active in northeastern Syria since 2016, is seeking closer ties to the new Syrian government, including the Islamist HTS-M militia. Concurrently, Turkey supports the fight of the so-called Syrian National Army against Kurdish militias such as the YPG.
The Erdoğan administration considers the YPG and its political wing in Syria to be offshoots of the terrorist PKK. The Turkish government would likely only accept Kurdish self-administration in Syria under a leadership that clearly distances itself from the PKK and its armed struggle.
Öcalan’s Influence and PKK Leadership
Öcalan retains significant influence within the PKK and the Kurdish movement. Despite the numerous crimes directly or indirectly linked to him, he is revered by many Kurds. Aksoy emphasizes that Öcalan remains a "symbolic force for the Kurdish movement." However, this force is not absolute.
In past negotiations, the PKK leadership in the Kandil Mountains has disregarded the demands of its founder. Aksoy expresses uncertainty about whether the PKK will follow Öcalan’s instructions in the current initiative. After a quarter of a century in prison, she questions the extent of his influence over the organization.
After initially critical reactions, the PKK leadership has recently adopted a more conciliatory tone. They have indicated that a new process is underway in the region and have sought to reassure Turkish society that the Kurds have no intention of dividing Turkey. Aksoy concludes that the PKK is taking the initiative seriously but anticipates "tough negotiations" over the prospects that Turkey offers the Kurds in exchange for disarmament. If the PKK does eventually agree to lay down its arms, Aksoy believes it could lead to "an atmosphere of relief in Turkey that will affect both the government and society."
The future of the latest peace initiative between the Turkish state and the Kurdish PKK remains uncertain. However, it is clear that a resolution of "the biggest problem in the history of the Turkish Republic" has not been this close for a long time.
