Trump’s Trade Gambit: Did the Markets Just Prove His Critics Wrong?

May 12th witnessed a surge in stock markets, a reaction to President Donald Trump’s announcement of a temporary trade agreement with China. This development has temporarily alleviated concerns regarding a potential economic slowdown and fears of renewed inflation. However, it simultaneously raises critical questions about the future of U.S.-China trade relations and the validation of Trump’s controversial tariff strategy.

The immediate impact of the trade agreement was undeniable. The S&P 500 experienced a climb of over 3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average leaped by more than 1,100 points. The Nasdaq Composite also showcased robust growth, rising by over 4.3%. According to stock analysts interviewed by USA TODAY, this trade deal has reopened the possibility of U.S. markets reaching record highs, a prospect that seemed distant after a turbulent start to 2025.

Nicole Russell, a columnist for USA TODAY, reflects on the complexities surrounding Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiating tool. She acknowledges the inherent drawbacks of tariffs, characterizing them as taxes that affect a wide range of consumer goods, from groceries to clothing and automobiles.

Despite these concerns, Russell recognizes the rationale behind Trump’s approach, suggesting that increased domestic manufacturing could benefit American workers. Nevertheless, she concedes that the tariffs have had a detrimental effect on economic growth, created uncertainty among investors, and eroded Trump’s political standing with Republicans in Congress, potentially jeopardizing his tax cut proposal.

While acknowledging these challenges, the article emphasizes a recent shift towards a more positive trajectory. The announcement of a trade deal with the United Kingdom on May 8th, coupled with the surprisingly swift and comprehensive ceasefire in the trade war with China, has instilled a sense of optimism. Lynn Song, chief economist of greater China at Dutch bank ING, described this development as a "larger-than-expected de-escalation," although she cautioned that the negotiation process would likely remain challenging.

The article underscores the need for cautious optimism, as Trump’s administration faces the task of brokering a final deal with China by August. Failure to do so, it warns, could lead to a return to the instability experienced following the implementation of new tariffs in April.

The article revisits the criticism leveled against Trump after he imposed tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and other trade partners. Democrats, the mainstream media, and even some Republicans condemned the move. A CNBC story from April 12th cited a retailer who predicted "irreversible" damage to U.S. businesses as a result of Trump’s tariffs on China. Time magazine cautioned that the tariffs could trigger a global recession, while The New York Times described them as a "self-inflicted debacle."

Russell, however, questions whether the news media will acknowledge the potential success of Trump’s strategy in light of the market’s positive reaction. She wonders if journalists will give Trump credit for negotiating a deal that could contribute to American prosperity.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is quoted highlighting the news media’s reluctance to give Trump credit when it is due. Bessent cites a story from late April that portrayed the stock market as having its worst April since the Great Depression. He points out that the Nasdaq subsequently rebounded, yet the media failed to acknowledge this turnaround.

Russell echoes Bessent’s sentiment, observing a persistent narrative from progressives and the media that paints a consistently negative picture of the Trump administration. She argues that this narrative does not reflect reality.

The article concludes by posing the central question: if stocks continue to rise, the economy strengthens, and Americans prosper in the years ahead, will Trump’s critics finally acknowledge that they were wrong about his trade policies?

The article’s author, Nicole Russell, is identified as a columnist at USA TODAY and a mother of four residing in Texas. Contact information and social media handles are provided.

The author makes it clear that there will need to be a final deal with China by August, or the chaos will start again, as it did in April.

The article is written from a somewhat conservative perspective, questioning the critical media narratives, which the author views as overly negative and perhaps biased. At the same time, the author concedes that tariffs have downsides and that Trump’s negotiation process will likely remain challenging. The author is ultimately interested in whether the positive changes in the economy due to Trump’s deal making will be recognized in the news.