The Grocery Bill Blues and Trump’s Economic Gamble
The squeeze is on. Families across America, from the East Coast elite to blue-collar workers, are feeling the pinch of rising costs. As a mother of four in Texas, I can personally attest to this. My grocery bill has ballooned to over $1,000 per month, and even then, it doesn’t stretch as far as it used to, much to the dismay of my perpetually hungry teenagers. The stark reality is that $250 a week simply doesn’t buy the same amount of food it did just a few years ago.
This isn’t just a personal anecdote; it’s a reflection of a broader economic trend. From 2020 to 2024, food prices skyrocketed by nearly 24% as inflation surged, leaving a lasting scar on household budgets. While inflation has cooled down to 2.4%, lower than expected in March, the lingering effects of those years of compounded price increases continue to weigh heavily on families.
This economic pressure formed the backdrop for Donald Trump’s presidency. He swept into office with a clear mandate from voters: to fix the economy by lowering taxes, curbing inflation, and restoring well-paying jobs for ordinary Americans. He promised a return to prosperity, a promise that resonated deeply with those struggling to make ends meet.
One of the key pillars of Trump’s economic agenda is a sweeping tax overhaul, spearheaded by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The goal is to pass Trump’s "big, beautiful bill" by Independence Day, a package brimming with tax cuts that aim to stimulate the economy. The proposed legislation includes an extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a move that could significantly impact individual and corporate tax burdens. The bill also proposes to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime income, and Social Security benefits, a potentially transformative change for many Americans.
However, the bill’s potential benefits are intertwined with significant risks. Critics point out that the legislation is loaded with additional spending, a counterproductive element that could undermine efforts to control inflation and exacerbate the nation’s already substantial debt. This spending spree could negate some of the positive effects of the tax cuts, creating a cycle of inflation and debt that harms the very people the bill aims to help.
As the saying goes, the devil is in the details. Republicans in Congress are currently grappling with the intricacies of the proposed tax cuts, particularly the thorny issue of a cap on the federal deduction for state and local taxes. But ultimately, the success of Trump’s economic plan hinges on its ability to deliver tangible benefits to families struggling with everyday expenses. For people like me, with a family to feed and little wiggle room in the budget, the stakes are incredibly high.
Trump’s approach to the economy has been nothing short of disruptive. He has challenged established norms, angered critics, and embarked on a mission to fundamentally reshape the American economic landscape. It’s been a turbulent ride so far, marked by both successes and setbacks.
The initial months of Trump’s presidency saw a slight contraction in gross domestic product, largely attributed to his implementation of tariffs. These tariffs, intended to protect American industries, had the unintended consequence of disrupting supply chains and raising costs for consumers. Fears of a recession began to percolate, and Trump’s approval ratings took a hit, largely due to the economic uncertainty he had created.
Despite these challenges, there have been some positive signs. Employers have added a significant number of new jobs in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains at a historically low 4.2%. The stock markets, after a period of decline, have shown signs of recovery, offering some reassurance to investors. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve is considering cutting interest rates, a move that could lower borrowing costs for Americans and stimulate economic growth.
However, extending the 2017 tax cuts remains the most crucial step in revitalizing the economy. Many Americans are unaware of how vital this extension is to their financial well-being. The 2017 tax cuts increased the standard income deduction from $6,500 to $12,000 for individual filers and from $13,000 to $24,000 for joint returns, resulting in an average tax cut of $1,500 to $3,000 per year for the average household.
Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the Cato Institute, succinctly put it, "The 2017 tax cuts that they’re extending were, full stop, a good pro-growth reform. It simplified tax paying, lowered taxes, and ensured that more (goods were) made in the United States. Investment is the backbone of long-run economic growth that leads to higher productivity and higher wages and businesses doing more activity than elsewhere."
While Michel supports the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, he is critical of the proposed elimination of taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security, calling them "expensive gimmicks that don’t make the package more pro-growth." He also dismisses the argument that the tax bill will only benefit wealthy Americans, arguing that it provides broad-based tax relief.
One of the major concerns surrounding Trump’s tax plan is its potential impact on the national debt. The Congressional Budget Office projects a 2025 fiscal year deficit of $1.9 trillion, roughly the same as last year’s deficit. Continuing to accumulate debt could fuel inflation and hinder economic growth.
Texas Republican Rep. Chip Roy has been vocal in his concerns about the dangers of increased deficit spending. "If we don’t cut spending along with tax cuts, the inflation tax will continue to drain American prosperity," he recently stated. While he reluctantly voted for an early version of Trump’s tax legislation, he claims he was promised cuts to entitlement programs and the elimination of clean energy tax credits in the final bill.
Ultimately, Trump’s tax plan has the potential to revitalize the economy, but its success depends on Congress and the president’s ability to refine the legislation and address its shortcomings. As it currently stands, the plan is simply too expensive.
As Michel aptly pointed out, "A spending cut today acts like a pro-growth tax cut in the future." A balanced approach, combining targeted tax cuts with responsible spending reductions, is essential to ensure long-term economic stability and prosperity.
My grocery bill, and the grocery bills of countless other American families, depend on it. We need policies that address the root causes of rising costs and provide lasting relief from the economic pressures that are squeezing our budgets. Only then can we truly say that the economy is working for everyone, not just a select few.
