Trump’s Middle East Trip: Shifting Sands and Israeli Concerns
President Donald Trump is set to embark on a high-stakes tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates next week, aiming to advance several critical negotiations. These include reviving hostage talks between Israel and Hamas, exploring a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, and potentially securing a civil nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia. However, the trip unfolds amidst growing speculation about a potential cooling in the relationship between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, adding a layer of complexity to the already intricate dynamics of the region.
Reports of a rift between the two leaders have surfaced recently, fueling anxieties within Israeli political circles. Yanir Cozin, a correspondent for Israeli Army Radio, claimed that Trump has severed contact with Netanyahu, a claim that hasn’t been independently verified but aligns with a growing sentiment that the once-strong Trump-Netanyahu alliance may be weakening.
This perceived shift in relations has sparked considerable debate and analysis among Middle East experts. Scott Feltman, executive vice president of the One Israel Fund, suggested that Trump may be adopting a "tough love" approach, encouraging Israel to become more self-reliant. "There is a prevailing thought that [Trump] very much wants Israel to stand on its own two feet," Feltman stated, implying a desire for Israel to take greater responsibility for its security and strategic interests.
The potential civil nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia is another point of contention. Sources told Reuters that Trump is prepared to move forward with the agreement even if Saudi Arabia doesn’t normalize relations with Israel. This represents a significant departure from his first administration’s stance, as well as President Biden’s policy, both of which linked such deals to broader normalization goals.
For Israel, this shift could be unsettling. Saudi Arabia has long insisted on the establishment of a Palestinian state as a prerequisite for full diplomatic ties with Israel, a condition Netanyahu has consistently rejected. Trump’s willingness to decouple the nuclear deal from normalization could therefore create new tensions and complexities in the region.
Adding to the unease is the revelation that Trump has been in discussions with Qatari officials regarding a potential deal for Qatar to loan the U.S. a jet to replace Air Force One. Israeli supporters have historically been wary of Qatar due to its alleged ties to Hamas, raising concerns about the implications of such a deal.
Further frustration in Jerusalem arose following the U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement with Yemen’s Houthi militants. The deal, reached without Israeli consultation, required the Houthis to cease attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes but omitted any mention of their assaults on Israel. Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst, argued that this omission amounted to Trump "throwing Israel under the bus." He added, "I think the Israeli government is puzzled, embarrassed … particularly in the context of the Houthis."
Netanyahu has responded by emphasizing Israel’s commitment to self-defense, declaring, "Israel will defend itself by its own forces," a sentiment echoed by Defense Minister Israel Katz.
Despite these tensions, the U.S. continues to provide support for Israel’s defense. A U.S. THAAD missile system recently intercepted rockets fired toward Israel by Houthi forces, demonstrating ongoing security cooperation.
U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee has dismissed reports of a rift between Trump and Netanyahu, calling them "reckless & irresponsible." He asserted that the relationship between the U.S. and Israel remains strong and that Israel has had no better friend than President Trump. National Security Council spokesman James Hewitt reiterated this sentiment, emphasizing the continued close collaboration on issues such as hostage release, preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and strengthening regional security.
Other experts advise caution against overinterpreting the friction. Gregg Roman of the Middle East Forum pointed out that Israel was aware that U.S. actions against the Houthis were primarily aimed at protecting global commerce, not solely defending Israel. He also downplayed concerns about the potential Saudi nuclear deal, suggesting that a safer Saudi Arabia could ultimately contribute to a safer Israel.
Amidst these regional uncertainties, Netanyahu’s silence on Iran has also drawn attention. While his government has touted recent successes against Iranian proxies, he has refrained from commenting publicly on nuclear negotiations with Tehran.
Despite this silence, Netanyahu insists that he maintains close communication with the Trump team regarding Iran. He stated that he has conveyed his concerns to President Trump and that Israel remains committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Trump’s decision not to visit Israel during this trip has been interpreted by some as potentially beneficial. Feltman suggested that Trump might find that Sunni states share Israel’s concerns about the ongoing negotiations with Iran, adding that they have "just as much to lose from a nuclear Iranian regime."
In conclusion, Trump’s upcoming Middle East tour presents a complex web of opportunities and challenges. While the administration aims to advance critical negotiations and address key regional conflicts, the perceived strain in the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu, coupled with concerns over the potential Saudi nuclear deal and the U.S. approach to the Houthi threat, have introduced a significant element of uncertainty. The trip will be closely watched by observers seeking to understand the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Israel relations and the broader implications for regional stability.
