Trump’s Return and the Renewed China Strategy
President Trump’s early actions in his new term signal a clear return to a confrontational stance toward China, reminiscent of his initial administration. This hard-line approach is once again a defining priority for US foreign policy and national security. Trump’s strategy unfolds with increased defense spending focused on the Indo-Pacific region and the imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports. While trade disputes with other nations may be resolved through negotiation, the rivalry between superpowers presents a different challenge.
The author believes that avoiding armed conflict between the US and China is crucial, and that continued American indifference to China’s ambitions would have heightened the risk of such conflict. The first Trump term saw the initial development of a strategy to contain China’s global aspirations. The author laments the alleged waste of those efforts during the Biden administration, attributing it to a lack of leadership.
The article cites China’s reaction to Trump’s tariffs, with promises to "fight till the end" in trade or other forms of conflict, highlighting the escalating tensions. The current phase of the US counter-China strategy involves substantial investment in naval power and the re-establishment of critical production lines that had been outsourced to China. The author notes President Trump’s respectful tone toward Chinese President Xi Jinping, deeming it appropriate for superpower diplomacy. However, the author emphasizes Trump’s unwavering resolve to counter China’s power.
The author suggests that the West fell victim to Deng Xiaoping’s principle of "hide your strength, bide your time," which allowed China to build its economic and military power. The author also claims that America’s "China lobby" aided China’s growth until Trump’s arrival. The author draws a parallel to the sentiment attributed to Vladimir Lenin, claiming that the capitalists would sell the rope with which they would be hanged. They suggest this sentiment applies to US-China policy after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The author believes that this era is over, with the new Trump administration committed to a different course.
In early February, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on goods from China, met with immediate retaliation. In early March, the U.S. increased the tariff to 25%, again prompting retaliatory measures. The author anticipates that this confrontation will intensify, as China is America’s only true peer competitor across all domains, exhibiting open hostility toward the U.S. and its allies. The article criticizes the Biden administration for allegedly overlooking extensive Chinese espionage efforts. The author contrasts the FBI’s actions under Trump, which included raiding and closing the Chinese consulate in Houston, with the FBI’s raid on Mar-a-Lago under Biden. The author expresses hope that the new FBI Director, Kash Patel, will be effective in countering Chinese espionage.
The prospect of summits between Trump and Xi is acknowledged, drawing a parallel to Nixon’s meetings with Soviet leaders. The author believes summits can de-escalate crises and prevent conflicts from escalating to a "kinetic level," given that both China and Russia possess vast nuclear arsenals and emerging technologies. It is essential to maintain focus on this fact and maintain a strong defense.
The author asserts that Trump is not naive and would prefer controlled competition with China, he will not be manipulated or deceived at summits. He will walk away if no meaningful deal is possible, given the increasingly hard-line stance of the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping’s leadership. The author emphasizes that Trump has consistently recognized Xi’s true nature and the challenges he poses.
Admiral Mark Montgomery is referenced as outlining the long-term strategy for dealing with China. The author highlights the significance of the Taiwan Semiconductor CEO’s visit to the White House. The handshake between President Trump and C.C. Wei of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on March 3 is presented as a signal of US resolve, complementing the China tariffs and the emphasis on naval power.
The author refers to Senator Tom Cotton’s book, "Seven Things You Can’t Say About China," noting Cotton’s position as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and his close relationship with Trump. The author believes that if Trump’s and Cotton’s shared understanding of China is widely adopted within the administration, the country will be prepared for the crucial and long-term challenge posed by China. The author finishes by stating that this is Trump’s most important fight among many important fights and it will have to be carried consistently forward for decades.
