Trump’s Second Term: Trade Wars, Peace Talks, and Personnel Shake-Ups Dominate Early Agenda

President Donald Trump is moving full speed ahead in his second term, asserting that his administration is building upon what he claims was the most successful first 100 days of any presidency. He highlighted these perceived successes during a commencement address at the University of Alabama, hinting at even greater achievements to come. However, his 16th week in office is shaping up to be a complex one, filled with critical international meetings, tense trade negotiations, and significant shifts in his foreign policy team.

Canada and Greenland: Diplomatic Tensions on the Northern Front

One of the immediate priorities is a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, a leader from the Liberal Party, who will be visiting the White House. The meeting will center on the 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods, a measure that has strained relations between the two countries. Beyond the tariff dispute, there’s also the lingering issue of Trump’s previously expressed interest in acquiring Greenland and even suggesting that Canada could become the 51st state of the United States. While those suggestions may have been made in jest, they reflect a certain level of unconventionality in Trump’s approach to international relations.

Prime Minister Carney has acknowledged the complexity of the upcoming discussions, stating that he is not expecting them to be easy. The Canadians will likely be looking for a pathway to eliminate the tariffs, arguing that they harm both economies. For the Trump administration, the goal might be to leverage the tariffs to extract concessions from Canada on other trade-related matters.

Trade Wars: A High-Stakes Gamble with China

The economic front is also dominated by the ongoing trade war with China. The Trump administration has already imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, with the stated goal of rectifying the trade deficit between the two countries. While Trump paused his reciprocal tariff plan on dozens of nations in April to encourage trade deals, he has intensified the pressure on China, which responded with retaliatory tariffs of its own, including duties of 125% on U.S. goods.

China’s Commerce Ministry has indicated that they are "evaluating" an offer from the Trump administration to hold trade talks on the 145% U.S. tariffs. However, they have also cautioned against using the talks as a means of "coercion and extortion." Trump himself has stated that he will not drop the tariffs simply to bring China to the negotiating table.

He has argued that China’s economy is suffering under the weight of the tariffs, citing factory closures and rising unemployment. While he claims he doesn’t want to harm China, he insists that he cannot allow the country to continue building its military and economic power at the expense of the United States.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also added another layer of complexity to the trade negotiations, stating that the Trump administration will take into account China’s failure to comply with a previous trade deal from Trump’s first term when finalizing any new agreement. This suggests that the administration is taking a hard line approach and will be looking for strong guarantees of compliance.

Simultaneously, Bessent and other trade officials are engaged in negotiations with numerous other countries during the 90-day tariff pause that began in April. The pressure is on to secure trade deals before the pause expires in July.

Ukraine and Russia: The Elusive Quest for Peace

Another major foreign policy challenge is the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump campaigned on a promise to end the war, claiming it would never have started if he had been president. He has stated that he believes he is closer to reaching a peace deal, although he declined to specify which party he feels closer to.

Recently, Ukraine signed a deal with the U.S. granting access to its rare earth minerals, a move that could potentially strengthen the U.S. position in negotiations. Trump also took the opportunity to criticize the Biden administration’s handling of the situation, claiming that Biden had given Ukraine $350 billion without securing any guarantees in return.

However, the path to peace is far from clear. Trump himself acknowledged the "tremendous hatred" between the leaders and soldiers of the two countries, expressing skepticism about the possibility of reaching a deal. When asked how long he would give the two countries before walking away from the negotiations, he replied that there would come a time when he would say, "’OK, keep going, keep being stupid.’"

The State Department has also emphasized the need for Ukraine and Russia to present "concrete ideas" to end the conflict, warning that the U.S. will end its involvement in negotiations if progress is not made.

Personnel Shake-Up: A New Team for Foreign Policy

Adding to the sense of flux is a recent shake-up in Trump’s foreign policy team. He tapped former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations after ousting him from the National Security Council. Simultaneously, he appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to serve as interim national security advisor, a move that has drawn criticism from Democrats.

The dual role for Rubio is reminiscent of Richard Nixon’s decision to appoint Henry Kissinger to simultaneously serve as secretary of state and national security advisor. Democrats have raised concerns about the workload and the potential for conflicts of interest, arguing that both positions require dedicated attention and expertise.

Waltz’s nomination as U.N. ambassador is also expected to face scrutiny during his Senate confirmation hearing. Democrats are eager to question him about the Signal chat leak debacle, which involved the inadvertent disclosure of sensitive information in a group chat with other high-profile Trump officials. They also plan to inquire about his views on the United Nations and his understanding of U.S. security interests.

Senators have already signaled their intention to ask pointed questions during the hearing.

A Week of Uncertainty and High Stakes

In conclusion, Trump’s 16th week in office is shaping up to be a period of significant activity and potential upheaval. The meetings with Canada, the ongoing trade war with China, the attempts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, and the personnel shake-up in his foreign policy team all point to a presidency that is willing to take bold risks and challenge established norms. Whether these moves will ultimately lead to success remains to be seen.