Trump’s Second Term: A Tale of Self-Praise and Slipping Poll Numbers
President Donald Trump is boldly asserting that his second term is off to a historic start, despite mounting evidence suggesting that many Americans are not sharing his enthusiasm. He declared his first 100 days to be the "greatest in the history of our country," while speaking to reporters on Air Force One. This declaration comes amidst a flurry of executive actions that have rolled back established policies, slashed the federal workforce, and addressed longstanding grievances from his first term.
However, public opinion polls paint a different picture. Recent national surveys indicate a slide in Trump’s approval ratings, placing him in negative territory compared to the start of his second term. An average of these surveys reveals that his approval rating is underwater by approximately six points. A Fox News poll conducted in late April showed him at 44% approval and 55% disapproval. Another poll, conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, put his approval rating 11 points in the red.
Despite the unfavorable poll numbers, Trump remains unfazed. He dismissed them as "fake polls," reiterating claims he made during the intense media coverage surrounding his 100-day milestone. He seems determined to forge ahead with his agenda, regardless of public sentiment.
Several factors are contributing to the decline in Trump’s approval ratings. Increased concerns about the economy and inflation, issues that plagued former President Joe Biden, are weighing heavily on the public’s mind. Trump’s recent tariff announcement, which triggered a trade war and sparked fears of a recession, has further exacerbated these economic anxieties.
The Fox News poll revealed that only 38% of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, and a mere third approved of his approach to inflation and tariffs. However, Trump insists that "inflation is down, all costs are down," highlighting the issue that propelled him back into the White House.
Doug Heye, a seasoned GOP strategist, points out that Trump’s initial appeal was rooted in promises to lower prices. The fact that prices have not decreased, Heye argues, is reflected in the declining poll numbers. He warns that Trump’s tariff policies could backfire, potentially alienating voters who supported both Biden and Trump.
Presidential approval ratings are closely monitored indicators that can significantly influence upcoming elections. The Republican Party, currently holding control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, traditionally faces headwinds in the midterm elections. Trump’s declining poll numbers are a growing concern within the GOP.
However, Heye cautions against drawing definitive conclusions from polls conducted in May of an off-year. He notes that Trump’s current overall approval rating is comparable to his standing 100 days into his first term in 2017, when he had a 45% approval rating in Fox News polling.
Comparing Trump’s approval ratings to those of his predecessors reveals a mixed bag. John F. Kennedy and Dwight Eisenhower enjoyed the highest first-quarter average ratings, both exceeding 70%. Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama, and Ronald Reagan averaged between 60% and 69%. George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Joe Biden, and Bill Clinton had similar average ratings of 55% to 58% during their first quarters.
Gallup polling highlights that Trump is the only president to have consistently sub-50% average approval ratings during his first quarter in office. However, promising approval ratings at the outset do not guarantee a successful presidency. Carter’s poll numbers plummeted within two years, leading to his defeat in the 1980 election.
Biden, in contrast, had a 54% approval rating in Fox News polling 100 days into his term, with his numbers remaining in the low-to-mid-50s for the first six months. However, Biden’s approval ratings declined sharply in the late summer and autumn of 2021, amidst criticism over the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, soaring inflation, and a surge of migrants at the southern border.
In summary, while Trump is touting his second term as a resounding success, public opinion polls suggest a different reality. Concerns over the economy, inflation, and trade policies are contributing to a decline in his approval ratings. Whether Trump can reverse this trend remains to be seen, but his unwavering confidence and determination to push forward with his agenda suggest that he will continue to disregard the polls and pursue his vision for the country. The political landscape remains fluid, and the impact of Trump’s policies on the economy and public sentiment will ultimately determine the trajectory of his second term. The upcoming midterm elections will serve as a crucial test of his popularity and the strength of the Republican Party. The historical data on presidential approval ratings offers a cautionary tale, highlighting that initial popularity is no guarantee of long-term success. The challenges facing Trump, including economic uncertainty and political polarization, will require skillful navigation and a willingness to address the concerns of a divided nation. His response to these challenges will shape his legacy and determine the fate of his presidency.
