The Unraveling: Trump’s Coalition Crumbles as Disaffected Voters Feel Betrayed

Philadelphia, a city steeped in Democratic tradition, became a surprising battleground in the 2024 presidential election. The story of Sharita White, a 37-year-old Black Philadelphian, exemplifies the shift that occurred when millions of voters broke with the Democratic Party to support Donald Trump. Driven by economic hardship and a sense of neglect, these voters fueled a historic red shift in Democratic strongholds, ultimately contributing to Trump’s victory. However, barely three months into his presidency, the coalition that propelled him to power appears to be fracturing, leaving many voters disillusioned and regretful.

White’s decision to vote for Trump was born out of desperation. After enduring a series of personal tragedies, including the loss of her husband and her job, she found herself struggling to provide for her children in a neighborhood plagued by crime and addiction. The disappearance of pandemic stimulus checks, coupled with soaring inflation, further exacerbated her financial woes. In her view, life had been better under Trump’s previous administration, prompting her to cast her ballot for him in the hopes of a return to economic prosperity.

However, White’s optimism quickly faded. Eight months later, she expressed profound disappointment, lamenting the continued rise in prices and the worsening economy. She confessed her regret for voting for Trump, a sentiment echoed by many others who had abandoned the Democratic Party in 2024.

Polling data and survey results paint a similar picture of disillusionment. Black, Latino, and young voters are turning sharply against Trump, reversing the gains he made during the election cycle. The multiracial, working-class coalition that he had carefully cultivated is now showing signs of collapse.

Trump’s victory was largely attributed to his campaign’s unconventional strategy. By focusing on the economy, inflation, and immigration, and by reaching out to voters through non-traditional media platforms and in areas where Republicans typically struggle, his team successfully activated a coalition of the disaffected.

However, Trump’s perceived failure to deliver on his promises is now fueling the unraveling of this coalition. His job approval and personal favorability ratings have steadily declined, primarily due to voters’ disapproval and distrust of his handling of the economy.

Despite entering office with more support than in his first term, Trump’s agenda quickly ran into trouble. Voters had expected him to prioritize the economy, particularly inflation. However, by March, public sentiment began to sour. Many voters, including those who had joined his coalition in November, felt that Trump was focusing on the wrong issues. His announcement of a "Liberation Day" tariff scheme, which jolted the stock market and threatened to raise prices, solidified this perception.

Since the start of his term, Trump has experienced the sharpest drops in job approval ratings among the very voters who had swung hard for him in November. Latino voters have shown a roughly 13 percent drop, Black voters a 9 percent drop, young voters a 23 percent drop, independents an 18 percent drop, and moderates a 15 percent drop.

Low-engagement voters, who tend to pay little attention to the news, also swung heavily in Trump’s favor in November. However, they have since soured on him even more dramatically, swinging more than 30 points away from him since January.

Even Trump’s less ideological supporters, those who did not strongly support him but still voted for him last year, are now more likely to disapprove of him than they were earlier in the year. A recent Pew Research Center study found that Trump’s standing among these voters has fallen by about 13 percentage points over the past three months. In contrast, his support among his most enthusiastic supporters has remained steady, essentially unchanged at 96 percent.

These trends indicate widespread dissatisfaction among the electorate, particularly among the newest members of the Republican coalition. These voters had taken a chance on Trump, believing his promises of economic improvement and a moderation of perceived policy excesses from the previous administration. However, they now feel deceived, betrayed, or let down by an administration that appears to be taking a much more radical approach than they had anticipated.

Jose, a 61-year-old retired Dominican American man from North Philly, exemplifies this sense of betrayal. He had been a Democratic voter until last year but now feels like Trump’s presidency has been a "stab in the back."

Jose had been drawn to Trump’s economic pitch, which he found more promising than the Democratic governance of the Biden years. He expressed frustration with Biden’s immigration policy, arguing that Democrats had neglected the needs of American workers by allowing immigrants to take jobs.

He had believed that Trump would better manage inflation while also enforcing immigration laws and deporting violent criminals. Instead, he feels that Trump’s administration is forcing price hikes through trade wars while targeting hard-working, non-violent immigrants for deportation.

"We voted for Trump and Trump betrayed us," Jose said. "The truth is people voted for one thing: the economy. A good economy. And these tariffs are hiking everything up… And he’s kicking out hard workers and not touching the people who don’t work, he’s leaving them. How does that make sense?"

Young, first-time Trump voters on college campuses expressed similar sentiments. While they may have agreed with Trump’s stance on immigration and his calls for fiscal responsibility, they are now worried about affordability and job stability as they prepare to enter the workforce.

Nikita, a senior at Drexel University who voted for Trump, admitted that she had expected things to be "a little different." While supportive of Trump’s border policies, she expressed anxiety about the job and stock market. "He became president, but [the stock market] … doesn’t look good as of right now."

In Kensington, a neighborhood in Northeast Philly, the reasons why so many voters were willing to give Trump another chance become clear. The area has experienced a surge in poverty, crime, and homelessness in the post-pandemic years. Drug use and dealing are rampant. This mirrors a trend in other blue, Democratic cities, where multiracial and working-class neighborhoods are increasingly shifting to the right.

At this point, many voters have placed their hopes in candidates from both major parties, only to be disappointed. Life has not improved for them.

While these voters are frustrated with Trump, they are not necessarily rushing back to the Democratic Party. They are second-guessing their 2024 vote choices but are not convinced that they would have been better off voting for Kamala Harris. Nor are they ready to declare that the Republican Party has completely lost them.

Some Philly residents are still willing to give the process more time. Nikita and other college students said they are willing to give Trump more time to prove himself. They see some positive aspects of his policies and believe he can still get back on track.

However, other first-time Trump voters regret their decision and plan to sit out future elections. Sharita White, for example, said that the last few election cycles have made her lose faith in politics altogether. "I’m going to be honest. I’m tired. I feel like at this point, my vote don’t matter," she said. "It’s like, I can’t do nothing to change anything. There was a time that Black people couldn’t vote. There was the time women couldn’t vote…but I feel like my vote don’t matter."

The stories of White and the other disaffected Trump voters serve as a warning for both parties. Republicans risk losing the gains they made last year and missing an opportunity to build a lasting, winning coalition. National trends are already making voters of color and young voters less likely to automatically support the Democratic Party.

However, Democrats should not misinterpret Trump’s declining support as a sign of their own strength. The same data that shows soft Trump voters fleeing him also suggests that they are not running back to the Democrats. Congressional Democrats continue to struggle with a negative brand image and are running nearly even with Republicans in head-to-head polling. A recent poll found that only about 30 percent of voters view the Democratic Party favorably.

The Democratic Party also needs to improve its communication strategy to reach the kinds of voters that Trump was able to connect with last year.

Both parties have time to address these issues before the next presidential election. The 2024 election demonstrated that these voters have the numbers and the power to swing entire elections. Their disillusionment and willingness to switch allegiances should serve as a wake-up call for both parties.