Trump and Putin: A Dance of Diplomacy or a Strategic Standoff?
President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, a conversation both sides have confirmed, igniting speculation and analysis about the potential for a breakthrough in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Trump, eager to fulfill his campaign promise of brokering a peace deal, has consistently portrayed the conflict as a "bloodbath" and expressed confidence in his ability to negotiate with Putin. However, beneath the surface of cordiality and diplomatic maneuvering lies a complex and deeply entrenched relationship marked by mistrust and competing national interests.
The anticipated call has raised questions about the expectations surrounding it. While both leaders are expected to maintain a respectful tone, a significant departure from the often-antagonistic rhetoric employed by the Biden administration, a substantive breakthrough remains unlikely. Unlike President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, who have openly criticized Putin’s actions and labeled him a "killer," Trump has consistently avoided personal attacks, preferring a more diplomatic approach. This aligns with his self-proclaimed mastery of "the Art of the Deal," a strategy that emphasizes building rapport and understanding the other party’s perspective.
However, this outward display of diplomacy masks a deeper reality. Despite the potential for cordial exchanges, neither Trump nor Putin harbors genuine trust for the other. During his first term, Trump pursued a notably assertive anti-Russia policy, a stark contrast to the narrative of collusion often propagated by his political opponents. He authorized lethal aid to Ukraine, a move that directly challenged Russian interests in the region. He also sanctioned the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a project crucial to Russia’s energy exports. Furthermore, Trump expelled numerous Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover and shut down Russian facilities in the U.S. used for espionage. Recognizing Russia’s exploitation of vulnerabilities in America’s technology-dependent warfare, Trump also implemented measures to mitigate these risks.
From Putin’s perspective, Trump represents a formidable and unpredictable adversary. Unlike previous presidents like Bush, Obama, and Biden, whom Putin seemingly managed to influence or manipulate, Trump has proven to be a challenging figure to control. In 2017, when questioned about his disappointment in Trump’s decision to close Russian diplomatic facilities, Putin dismissed the question as "naïve." He famously stated, "Trump is not my bride, and I’m not his groom," highlighting the transactional nature of their relationship. Similarly, following the 2018 Helsinki summit, Putin mocked the notion that Trump trusted him, asserting, "You can’t trust anyone. Where did you get the idea that Trump trusts me and I fully trust him?" He emphasized that each leader is primarily focused on defending the interests of their respective nations, underlining the absence of genuine emotional connection in their interactions.
The absence of emotional factors in the decision-making processes of powerful heads of state, particularly when dealing with countries like Russia and the United States, which view themselves as exceptional powers, is a key point. National interests and strategic calculations are paramount.
Regarding the substance of a potential Trump-Putin deal on Ukraine, expectations should be tempered. While both sides may report positive progress following the Tuesday call, concrete details are unlikely to emerge. Trump’s stated goal of achieving a 30-day ceasefire appears highly improbable. Putin, driven by a determination to achieve his objectives in Ukraine, is unlikely to be swayed by a ceasefire proposal, especially one with a limited duration.
As Trump himself has acknowledged, Putin currently "holds all the cards" in the conflict. While the U.S. could intensify economic pressure on Moscow, as suggested by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain. Hassett has indicated that Trump is prepared to employ both "carrots or sticks" to influence Putin’s actions.
However, Russian officials appear to believe that Trump’s administration is bluffing, arguing that aggressive sanctions against Russia’s energy sector could have unintended consequences, such as driving up energy prices globally. Moreover, Moscow seems confident in its ability to withstand further sanctions, citing its experience over the past decade. Indeed, despite numerous rounds of economic sanctions, Putin’s behavior has remained largely unchanged.
Trump may be realizing that brokering a deal with Putin is more challenging than he initially anticipated. By making it a central campaign promise, he may have inadvertently created unrealistic expectations and handed Putin leverage in negotiations. His advisors should have emphasized the complex factors involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly the role of NATO expansion in exacerbating tensions.
Russian media outlets have highlighted Putin’s succinct message to an "impatient" Trump, encapsulated in the phrase "My za mir, no est’ nyuansy," meaning "We are for peace, but there are nuances." This statement underscores Russia’s willingness to engage in dialogue while maintaining its own set of conditions and objectives.
Trump himself has seemingly begun to moderate his rhetoric. He recently acknowledged that his campaign promise to end the war in 24 hours was "a little bit sarcastic." Speaking to journalists on Air Force One, he adopted a more realistic tone, stating, "We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance."
If Trump concludes that Putin is merely stringing him along, he may choose to cancel the call and withdraw from negotiations. Such a move could potentially exert pressure on Putin, prompting him to reconsider his position if he genuinely desires a peaceful resolution. However, the complex situation that Trump inherited from the Biden administration and European allies is unlikely to be resolved through a single phone call, if at all.
