U.S. Halts Weapons Shipments to Ukraine Amid Tensions, Forcing Zelenskyy Towards Peace Talks
A sudden halt to U.S. weapons deliveries to Ukraine took effect Monday evening after an order from President Donald Trump, the Pentagon confirmed Tuesday, sending shockwaves through Kyiv and raising concerns among European allies. The abrupt decision has plunged Ukraine into a precarious situation, potentially jeopardizing its defensive capabilities and emboldening Russia.
According to a defense official, all U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine ceased at 6 p.m. on Monday. This meant that planes carrying vital military supplies en route to the war-torn nation were forced to turn back mid-flight. The timing of the order has triggered speculation about the motivations behind Trump’s action and its potential implications for the ongoing conflict.
The dramatic move came days after a tense meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. The Friday encounter reportedly dissolved into a heated exchange, with Trump and Vice President JD Vance allegedly berating Zelenskyy for what they perceived as insufficient gratitude for U.S. support. Sources claim that Trump abruptly dismissed Zelenskyy from the White House, canceling a scheduled lunch and press conference. This public display of discord highlights the growing strain in relations between the two countries.
Zelenskyy, supported by Ukraine’s European allies, had steadfastly refused to negotiate an end to the war without a robust security guarantee, fearing that Russian President Vladimir Putin would exploit any ceasefire to rearm and launch another assault. However, the sudden cessation of U.S. aid appears to have compelled Zelenskyy to reconsider his position.
Just hours after the aid shipments were halted, Zelenskyy announced his readiness to engage in peace negotiations with Russia, signaling a significant shift in his stance. He emphasized the urgent need to "make things right" with Trump and expressed a desire to end the protracted conflict. "None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer," Zelenskyy stated, highlighting the growing pressure he faces in light of the U.S. decision.
Adding another layer of complexity to the situation, Zelenskyy reportedly left the contentious Oval Office meeting without signing an agreement granting the U.S. access to some of Ukraine’s valuable rare earth minerals. Trump has long advocated for such a deal, arguing that it would indirectly protect Ukraine by intertwining American private business interests with the country, thereby deterring Russian aggression. The failure to secure this agreement may have further fueled Trump’s decision to suspend aid.
While no new Ukraine funding has been allocated since Trump assumed office, a significant portion of the funding authorized by former President Biden remained unspent. As of December 19, the Defense Department reported that $5.2 billion of this previously approved funding was still available. The decision to withhold these remaining funds further intensifies the financial pressure on Ukraine.
The immediate impact on direct contracts between Ukraine and U.S. weapons manufacturers, procured through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, remained unclear as of Tuesday. Of the $21.2 billion allocated to this fund, $1.7 billion had not yet been utilized as of mid-December. The uncertainty surrounding these contracts adds to the overall anxiety within the Ukrainian defense establishment.
While the immediate effects of the U.S. aid freeze may not be immediately apparent on the front lines, experts warn that it could severely compromise Ukraine’s defensive capabilities in the long run. Karolina Hird, deputy lead of the Institute for the Study of War’s Russia Team, cautioned that the freeze could have a "detrimental" impact on civilian casualties. Many of the critical missile systems that shield Ukrainian cities from Russian attacks, such as Patriot batteries and NASAMs, are provided by the U.S. The loss of these systems would leave Ukrainian civilians more vulnerable to Russian airstrikes.
Trump’s decision to cut off aid has also placed increased pressure on European allies to shoulder the financial burden of supporting Ukraine. On Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a comprehensive plan to mobilize up to 800 billion Euros, nearly $850 billion, for European defense and support for Ukraine. She described the current moment as "the most momentous and dangerous of times," underscoring the urgency of the situation. An emergency meeting of the European bloc is scheduled for Thursday to discuss the proposal.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, European countries have collectively provided Ukraine with $145 billion in aid, according to data from the Kiel Institute. The U.S. has contributed more than $120 billion during the same period. However, a surge in European spending may not fully compensate for the loss of U.S. support, particularly given the crucial role the U.S. plays in supplying advanced air defense systems.
"Ukraine is going to have less protection because they won’t have those sophisticated systems, and the Europeans don’t have perfect analogs for these systems yet," Hird explained, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on European assistance.
The U.S. has provided Ukraine with at least three Patriot batteries and 12 NASAMs since the Russian invasion. Patriot systems, considered the Army’s most advanced air defense system, are capable of intercepting ballistic and cruise missiles, while NASAMs can engage some aircraft, UAVs, and cruise missiles.
The U.S. is also a major supplier of 155mm ammunition to Ukraine, having provided more than 3 million rounds since the beginning of the war. The disruption of this supply line could significantly impact Ukraine’s ability to sustain its artillery fire.
Furthermore, Ukrainians will no longer be able to conduct long-range strikes using U.S.-made ATACMS missiles. While the U.K. and France have supplied Ukraine with Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, these weapons have a range of approximately 155 miles, compared to the ATACMS missiles, which can reach up to 190 miles. The reduced range could limit Ukraine’s ability to target Russian military assets deep within occupied territory.
Despite making incremental gains over the past year, Russia has suffered "absolutely staggering" casualties, according to Hird. However, the cessation of U.S. aid could tip the balance in Russia’s favor. Experts predict that if the aid pause is not lifted, Ukraine could begin to experience the full effects as early as June or July, when its weapons stockpiles are depleted and no replacements are forthcoming. The consequences of this scenario could be devastating for Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and its civilian population.
