CDU Projected to Regain Leadership in Saarland Federal Election
According to political scientist Uwe Jun, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is poised to retake the lead in the upcoming Bundestag election in Saarland.
CDU Capitalizing on Favorable Trends
Jun observes that the CDU has historically been the dominant party in Saarland, and the current national trend favors them. The party is benefiting from widespread support across Germany, which is expected to translate into strong results in the Saarland election.
SPD Faces Challenges
Contrastingly, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is struggling at the national level, and this is likely to impact its performance in Saarland. Jun predicts significant losses for the SPD in the upcoming election, despite its resounding victory in the 2021 Bundestag election, where it secured 37.3% of the second votes and swept all four constituencies.
Unique Circumstances
Jun attributes the SPD’s previous electoral success in Saarland to a combination of factors, including the party’s unique position in the state. The SPD has enjoyed strong support in the region for an extended period, resulting in the party holding an absolute majority in the Saarland state parliament and forming a sole SPD-led government since April 2022, led by Anke Rehlinger. However, Jun emphasizes that this electoral dominance was an exceptional situation and will be difficult to replicate.
Anke Rehlinger: Contender for Federal SPD Leadership
Rehlinger is widely seen as a potential successor to Saskia Esken as the federal SPD leader. She has gained prominence within the party and is respected for her deep understanding of its inner workings and extensive leadership experience on the executive board. Her elevation to the federal level would be a major achievement, but she faces a difficult decision in balancing her potential national role with her current responsibilities as Minister-President of Saarland.
Long-Term Prospects
Predicting the outcome of the next state election in 2027 is premature, Jun notes. The SPD government will be primarily evaluated on its economic transformation efforts. Recent setbacks in this area have raised concerns, and the transformation may prove more challenging than anticipated.
Election Law Reform’s Impact
The effects of the electoral law reform on the number of Saarland deputies in the Bundestag remain uncertain. While it is possible that a single party could win all four direct mandates, it is unlikely. In such a scenario, Saarland could lose a seat in the Bundestag.
Due to the reformed election law, not all successful direct constituency candidates will automatically enter the Bundestag. They will only secure a mandate if their party receives a sufficient number of second votes. Currently, Saarland has nine members in the Bundestag.
