Romania’s Precarious Path: A Deep Dive into the Rise of the Far Right and Foreign Interference
Romania finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with a surge in right-wing extremism, foreign interference, and a profound crisis of confidence in its political establishment. The annulled presidential election of 2024, the subsequent exclusion of a prominent far-right candidate, and the looming threat of a re-run have exposed deep fissures within Romanian society and raised serious concerns about the country’s democratic future and its commitment to European integration.
The initial shockwave came in November 2024 when Călin Georgescu, a figure associated with the far right, ostensibly won the first round of the presidential election with 23% of the vote. Georgescu, an agricultural scientist and veterinarian, formerly linked to the extremist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) but running as an independent, espoused anti-Western rhetoric, cultivated close ties with the Orthodox Church, and openly displayed pro-Russian sympathies. He was also under investigation for glorifying fascist war crimes, adding another layer of complexity to his controversial persona.
Georgescu’s apparent victory sent tremors through the political landscape, setting the stage for a runoff election against Elena Lasconi, a candidate from the liberal-conservative USR party. However, this electoral course was abruptly disrupted. The Constitutional Court intervened, initially ordering a recount, then seemingly validating the results, only to ultimately declare the election null and void on December 6th. The court’s rationale centered on confirmed allegations of foreign interference, specifically a "aggressive Russian hybrid attack," underscoring the vulnerabilities of Romania’s democratic processes to external manipulation.
The annulment triggered a chain of events. Georgescu challenged the decision before the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), citing violations of his rights to a fair process and free elections. The ECHR swiftly rejected his appeal. In parallel, Romanian authorities launched a formal investigation into Georgescu, accusing him of campaign finance irregularities, inciting unconstitutional actions, and promoting fascist ideology. Raids on his supporters’ residences uncovered weapons, explosives, far-right propaganda, and a substantial sum of cash, leading to multiple arrests and Georgescu’s conditional release. Romania also expelled two Russian diplomats suspected of meddling in the election on Georgescu’s behalf.
Further complicating the situation, Georgescu’s attempt to re-enter the race was thwarted when the electoral commission deemed his candidacy invalid, despite him submitting a significant number of supporting signatures. This decision sparked protests from his followers in Bucharest, some of which turned violent. Diana Șoșoacă, another far-right and pro-Russian politician, was also barred from the election, adding fuel to the already volatile environment. The political turmoil led to the resignation of President Klaus Johannis, paving the way for an interim presidency under Senate President Ilie Bolojan.
The void left by Georgescu’s exclusion opened the door for George Simion, the leader of the AUR, to step forward as the primary far-right candidate. Simion is seen as a formidable contender, bolstered by support from various factions within the broader right-wing spectrum. Anamaria Gavrilă, representing the far-right Young People’s Party (POT), even withdrew her candidacy to consolidate support behind Simion.
Facing this resurgent right-wing challenge is the pro-European government coalition, comprising the Social Democrats (PSD), Liberals (PNL), and the Hungarian minority party UDMR. Their hopes rest on Crin Antonescu, a former Senate President, as their unified candidate. While polls suggest Simion could potentially win the first round, pro-European candidates like Nicușor Dan, the independent mayor of Bucharest, Crin Antonescu, or former Prime Minister Victor Ponta are projected to have a better chance of winning a hypothetical runoff election. However, the reliability of these polls is questionable, as demonstrated by the unexpected outcome of the initial election.
The rise of the far right in Romania is not an isolated phenomenon but rather a symptom of deeper societal anxieties and vulnerabilities. Adina Marincea, a researcher specializing in right-wing extremism at the Elie Wiesel National Institute for Studying the Holocaust in Romania, highlights the impact of successive crises, including the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the economic downturn that has increased the cost of living and exacerbated inequality. These factors have created a climate of fear, uncertainty, and polarization that has been readily exploited by far-right parties, who have presented themselves as "saviors of the people."
Studies reveal a significant level of anxiety among young Romanians, with many fearing unemployment, war, and inadequate healthcare. Widespread corruption is perceived as a major problem, driving many to consider emigration. Alarmingly, a substantial proportion of the population expresses a willingness to sacrifice civil liberties in exchange for an improved standard of living. The perception of Romania as a "decadent state" has also increased significantly, and the 2024 parliamentary election failed to restore legitimacy to the political elite.
Since the AUR’s entry into the Romanian Parliament in 2020, right-wing and populist parties have steadily gained influence, capitalizing on widespread distrust of the political establishment. Marincea notes that right-wing politicians have successfully combined criticism of the government with conspiracy theories and populist "anti-system" messaging. The AUR, like Georgescu, employs a combination of social media and offline campaigns, targeting rural areas and smaller towns with support from far-right grassroots organizations. Some elements within the Romanian Orthodox Church have tacitly supported these groups, despite the Church’s official stance of neutrality.
Within the Parliament, AUR leaders have normalized far-right discourse, rehabilitated fascist leaders and war criminals, and disseminated anti-Hungarian, xenophobic, ultraconservative, anti-LGBT, and sometimes anti-Semitic views. This rhetoric evokes the far-right PRM party of the 2000s, but is more deeply rooted in the fascist historical legacy. Other political actors have also adopted these strategies, particularly after Georgescu’s initial electoral success.
Compared to their counterparts in Western Europe, the Romanian right places less emphasis on anti-immigration policies, due to the relatively low immigration rates in the country. However, anti-Semitism remains a strong foundation of right-wing movements in Romania, fueled by a connection to the fascist, legionary historical heritage.
Despite the Holocaust in Romania, where hundreds of thousands of Jews and Roma were murdered, the process of reconciliation has been slow. The number of victims was officially recognized only in 2004, and widespread education on the topic is still lacking. Disturbingly, a significant percentage of young Romanians deny the Holocaust.
The potential rise to power of a far-right leader in Romania poses a grave threat to the country’s European integration and its position within NATO. It could also lead to a shift in military support for Ukraine. The Romanian president wields considerable influence over foreign and defense policy and controls the intelligence services.
The annulment of the previous election results has drawn criticism from the United States. Tech billionaire Elon Musk openly supported Georgescu on his platform X. US Vice President JD Vance expressed concern about the "state of democracy in Europe" and accused Romanian authorities of being afraid of their own people.
However, the most active interference has come from Russia. In March, several individuals were arrested in Romania for allegedly plotting a coup against the government. According to prosecutors, they were negotiating with foreign representatives about withdrawing from NATO and overthrowing the government. The Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI) reported that the suspects sought support from Russian embassy officials. Some of the suspects allegedly traveled to Moscow and were in contact with individuals who supported their plans.
Romania stands at a crossroads. The outcome of the upcoming election will determine whether the country continues on its path towards European integration and democratic values, or succumbs to the forces of extremism, foreign interference, and historical revisionism. The stakes are high, not only for Romania, but for the stability and security of the entire region.
