Fantasy baseball draft season is upon us, and the allure of drafting potential league-winning players is strong. However, the path to a championship is paved with calculated risks. Identifying which players present the right balance of potential upside and manageable downside is crucial. Reaching for the stars can be exhilarating, but striking out can be devastating, leaving your team struggling in the depths of the standings. Some players possess enticing ceilings but carry significant risks that require careful consideration. Grabbing a player too early based on optimistic projections can be a season-altering mistake. The following players represent the riskiest options at their respective positions heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season, highlighting the potential rewards and the inherent dangers associated with drafting them.
Catcher: Yainer Diaz, HOU
Yainer Diaz is undoubtedly a talented catcher, but his current ADP (Average Draft Position) inside the top 60 raises serious concerns. While he offers a relatively safe floor in terms of playing time and batting average, his power output experienced a concerning dip in 2024. His ISO (Isolated Power) plummeted from .256 in 2023 to .142 in 2024, signaling a potential decline in his ability to drive the ball for extra bases. The acquisition of Christian Walker by the Astros could further complicate matters. Walker’s presence may push Diaz down in the batting order, reducing his opportunities to accumulate RBI. Drafting Diaz as a top-60 pick assumes a return to his 2023 power numbers, which appears increasingly unlikely. While he may provide a solid batting average, his diminished power and potential for fewer RBI make him a risky investment at his current draft price. Consider waiting and targeting catchers with similar upside later in the draft.
First Base: Josh Naylor, ARI
Josh Naylor enjoyed a breakout season in 2024, hitting for career-high home run and RBI totals. However, fantasy managers should proceed with caution. A significant factor contributing to his power surge was his home ballpark, Progressive Field, which ranked as one of the most hitter-friendly venues for left-handed hitters in the league. Naylor is now playing at Chase Field, a venue that is significantly less favorable to home runs. Before the offensive boost offered by Progressive Field, Naylor was still a productive player, but not necessarily a fantasy star. His current draft position likely reflects expectations of a repeat performance from 2024. The change in scenery makes it highly improbable that Naylor will replicate his previous year’s power numbers. Temper expectations and consider other first basemen with more favorable park factors.
Second Base: Matt McLain, CIN
Matt McLain burst onto the scene in 2023, showcasing impressive power and speed. However, a shoulder injury sidelined him for the entire 2024 season, casting a shadow of uncertainty over his 2025 outlook. While the potential for a return to his 2023 form is enticing, several factors suggest caution. McLain’s success in 2023 may have been partially fueled by luck. His strikeout rate was high, and his contact rates were below average. Advanced metrics paint a less optimistic picture, with his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage significantly lower than his actual results. While McLain possesses the raw tools to be a fantasy star, the combination of injury concerns and underlying statistical red flags makes him a risky proposition. There is a real possibility that he regresses significantly, failing to live up to his lofty expectations.
Third Base: Mark Vientos, NYM
Mark Vientos could be a potent run producer hitting behind the likes of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso. However, his underlying metrics raise serious concerns about his ability to capitalize on those opportunities. Vientos struggled with bat speed, chase rate, and whiff rate in 2024. These weaknesses suggest that he may struggle to make consistent contact and drive the ball effectively, even with runners on base. While the quality of the hitters in front of him could mitigate some of these issues, the fundamental flaws in his approach remain a significant risk. Drafting Vientos as a top-100 pick assumes that he will overcome these challenges and deliver on his run-producing potential.
Shortstop: Ezequiel Tovar, COL
Ezequiel Tovar offers intriguing power potential at shortstop, boosted by the favorable hitting environment of Coors Field. However, his actual performance in 2024 exceeded his expected metrics, indicating that he may have been somewhat fortunate. While he racked up a significant number of extra-base hits, his overall production was still underwhelming. Tovar’s expected numbers suggest that he could have easily experienced a far worse season. While his power is valuable, his reliance on Coors Field and his overperformance of expected metrics make him a volatile option.
Outfield: Brenton Doyle, COL
Like Tovar, Brenton Doyle benefits significantly from playing in Coors Field. His road splits reveal a concerning lack of production away from the friendly confines of Colorado. His performance in the second half of the season mirrored his road struggles, further highlighting his dependence on his home ballpark. Drafting Doyle as a top-80 or 90 pick is a gamble on his ability to maintain his inflated Coors Field numbers. His struggles on the road suggest that he is unlikely to provide consistent value throughout the season.
Outfield: Jasson Dominguez, NYY
Jasson Dominguez is brimming with potential. However, his struggles against left-handed pitching are a major red flag. Despite being a switch-hitter, Dominguez has consistently struggled against southpaws throughout his professional career. His inability to hit lefties could lead to a platoon role, significantly limiting his playing time. The Yankees’ acquisition of Cody Bellinger further complicates the outfield situation, potentially squeezing Dominguez out of regular at-bats. Despite these concerns, Dominguez is still being drafted around pick 150. His upside is undeniable, but his struggles against lefties and the crowded Yankees outfield make him a high-risk, high-reward pick.
Outfield: Jurickson Profar, ATL
Jurickson Profar enjoyed a career resurgence in 2024, prompting fantasy managers to consider him as a viable outfield option. However, his success may have been heavily influenced by Petco Park, a venue where he has historically performed well. Profar’s OPS dropped significantly on the road, suggesting that his numbers were inflated by his home ballpark. Now, he is moving to Truist Park, a venue where he has historically struggled. His current draft position assumes that he will maintain his 2024 level of production.
Starting Pitcher: Justin Verlander, SF
Justin Verlander is a future Hall of Famer but is entering the twilight of his career. While his move to pitcher-friendly Oracle Park is appealing, his performance in 2024 raised concerns about his long-term viability. His strikeout rate declined to its lowest level in years, and his fastball velocity dipped to a concerning low. While Verlander has proven his ability to bounce back from adversity, a similar resurgence at age 42 seems unlikely. Drafting Verlander as a reliable starting pitcher is a gamble on his ability to defy age and maintain his effectiveness.
Relief Pitcher: Ryan Walker, SF
Ryan Walker is slated to begin the season as the Giants’ primary closer. However, his grip on the role is tenuous, especially with Camilo Doval lurking in the bullpen. Doval has a track record of success in the closer role, including leading the National League in saves. Doval will likely be given a longer leash to work through his struggles. Walker will likely be on a short leash. While Walker is a talented reliever, the uncertainty surrounding his role makes him a risky investment.
