Quantifying Election Manifestos Reveals the Radicalization of the AfD and the Historical Right-Wing Stance of the Union
Introduction
Election manifestos serve as blueprints for political parties, outlining their policy positions and ideological orientations. By conducting a comprehensive analysis of election manifestos, it becomes possible to quantify the presence of right-wing statements and gauge the extent to which political parties embrace or reject right-wing ideologies.
Methodology
A meticulous examination of election manifestos from the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and the Christian Social Union (CSU) was conducted. The manifestos were analyzed for utterances that aligned with right-wing categories, such as nativism, authoritarianism, and anti-egalitarianism.
Findings
AfD: A Trajectory of Extremism
The analysis revealed a stark trend in the AfD’s election manifestos: a steady increase in the proportion of right-wing statements. From its inception, the AfD stood out as a party with a significant right-wing orientation. However, this orientation has intensified over time, reaching its peak in the 2017 Bundestagswahl, where over a quarter of the party’s statements fell into right-wing categories.
Union: A Past and Present Rightward Shift
Notably, the Union also exhibited a leaning towards right-wing positions. In 1994, amidst a heated debate on asylum policy, the Union’s election manifesto contained a substantial number of right-wing statements, comparable to the current level of right-wing rhetoric employed by the AfD. While the Union’s right-wing stance has subsided somewhat since then, nearly 15% of the party’s present-day statements still carry right-wing connotations.
Implications
The findings of this analysis have significant implications for understanding the political landscape in Germany. The AfD’s persistent adherence to right-wing ideology raises concerns about the normalization of extremist views within mainstream politics. Furthermore, the Union’s historical and present-day right-wing inclinations suggest that the party may be susceptible to manipulation by far-right forces.
Conclusion
By quantifying right-wing statements in election manifestos, this study sheds light on the ideological evolution of the AfD and the Union. The AfD’s trajectory of extremism and the Union’s historical rightward shift underscore the importance of vigilance against the spread of right-wing ideologies in German society. As the political landscape continues to shift, it is crucial to remain attuned to the presence of right-wing rhetoric and to challenge its harmful effects on democracy and social cohesion.
