CDU Victory Not Unlikely in Rhineland-Palatinate, Expert Says
According to political scientist Uwe Jun, a victory for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the upcoming Bundestag election in Rhineland-Palatinate is not improbable. "The national trend currently favors the Christian Democrats," Jun told the Deutsche Presse-Agentur in Trier.
However, Jun believes that the outcome of the Bundestag election will not necessarily have a significant impact on the state election in March 2026. "Over the next twelve months or so, state politics will regain prominence and may ‘decouple’ from federal politics," he said.
In this light, Jun argues that the early election date set for February, as opposed to the traditional September date, could prove advantageous for the state government. In the 2021 Bundestag election, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) emerged as the strongest force in Rhineland-Palatinate, with 29.4% of the vote, followed by the CDU with 24.7%.
Jun notes that the potential failure of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) to enter the Bundestag could have repercussions for Rhineland-Palatinate. "In such a scenario, the FDP would likely undergo a significant internal reorganization, both in terms of personnel and policy," he said. The state is currently governed by a coalition of the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP.
The full impact of the electoral reform on the number of Bundestag deputies is yet to be determined, according to Jun. "Rhineland-Palatinate will certainly lose seats," he said. The CDU’s greatest concern, Jun adds, is the possibility of winning more direct mandates than their share of second votes would warrant. He suggests that the CDU could win several electoral districts by narrow margins. Currently, Rhineland-Palatinate is represented in the Bundestag by 36 deputies.
The electoral reform stipulates that not all victorious direct constituency candidates will automatically enter the Bundestag. They will only receive a mandate if their party obtains a sufficient number of second votes in the respective federal state. The Bundestag will be reduced from its current size of 733 to 630 deputies.
