# Economic Uncertainty Looms: Treasury Secretary Bessent Refrains from Recession Guarantees
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a tempered perspective on the U.S. economic outlook, stating that there are "no guarantees" against a potential recession. In an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" with Kristen Welker, Bessent acknowledged the anxieties surrounding the nation's financial future but emphasized the administration's commitment to establishing durable economic policies. His remarks come amid growing concerns about consumer confidence and predictions of a possible recession in the near future.
When pressed on whether he could provide assurances to Americans regarding the economy, Bessent pointed to the implementation of "robust policies" aimed at fostering long-term stability. A key component of this strategy involves curbing government spending, with Bessent stating the administration is working to "wean our country off" of "massive government spending." He argued that these measures are necessary to prevent a future financial crisis.
Bessent's cautious outlook echoes sentiments expressed by other members of President Donald Trump's administration, including the president himself. They have been hesitant to make definitive pronouncements about the trajectory of the U.S. economy, recognizing the inherent unpredictability of economic forces. The Treasury Secretary drew a parallel to the unforeseen emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the challenges of accurately forecasting economic events. "Like who would have predicted COVID?" Bessent asked, underscoring the unexpected nature of global disruptions.
The backdrop to these discussions is a climate of declining consumer confidence and public disapproval of the administration's handling of the economy. A recent NBC News poll revealed that 54% of voters disapprove of Trump's economic policies. This sentiment reflects anxieties about trade tensions, rising inflation, and the potential for an economic slowdown.
Adding to the uncertainty, J.P. Morgan's chief economist recently projected a 40% probability of a U.S. recession in 2025. While this is not a certainty, it highlights the potential risks that loom on the horizon.
President Trump himself has acknowledged the possibility of economic turbulence. In an interview with Fox host Maria Bartiromo, he stated, "I hate to predict things like that" when asked about the likelihood of a recession this year. While Trump initially promised an economic boom, he has since tempered expectations, referring to the current period as a "transition" due to the "very big" changes being implemented.
Despite the concerns, Bessent maintained that an "adjustment period" does not necessarily equate to a recession. He asserted that the administration's policies are designed to set the economy on a "sustainable path." Bessent also downplayed concerns about the stock market, which experienced a significant downturn the previous week.
U.S. stock markets closed sharply lower last week, driven by anxieties over Trump's frequently changing policies, including tariff threats against major trading partners. The broad S&P 500 index entered correction territory on Thursday, defined as a decline of at least 10% from a record high, which for the S&P 500 was set on February 19. The market volatility followed Trump's escalation of trade war risks with the European Union.
Bessent addressed the market volatility, stating, "I've been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy. They're normal." He cautioned against overreacting to short-term market fluctuations, saying, "One week does not the market make."
**Key Takeaways:**
* **No Guarantees:** Treasury Secretary Bessent refrained from providing assurances about avoiding a recession, citing economic unpredictability.
* **Policy Focus:** The administration is prioritizing "robust policies" to ensure long-term economic stability, including reduced government spending.
* **Consumer Concerns:** Consumer confidence is declining, and a majority of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy.
* **Recession Risk:** J.P. Morgan's chief economist estimates a 40% chance of a U.S. recession in 2025.
* **Trade Tensions:** Stock market volatility is linked to uncertainties arising from Trump's trade policies, particularly tariff threats.
* **Market Perspective:** Bessent views market corrections as healthy and normal, advising against overreacting to short-term fluctuations.
* **Sustainable Path:** The administration asserts that its policies are designed to set the economy on a "sustainable path" and prevent a future financial crisis.
* **Transition Period:** President Trump acknowledges a period of economic "transition" but remains optimistic about the long-term outlook.
The comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent and the broader economic context underscore the challenges facing the U.S. economy. While the administration is pursuing policies aimed at fostering stability and growth, significant uncertainties remain.
