The Prophecy, the Pope, and the Potential End of Days: Examining the St. Malachy Predictions
The recent passing of Pope Francis at the age of 88 has reignited a centuries-old legend that sends shivers down the spines of some believers: the Prophecy of St. Malachy. This purported prophecy, attributed to a 12th-century Irish saint, outlines a list of 112 popes, each identified by a brief, often cryptic phrase. With Francis potentially marking the 112th pontiff on that list, some interpret this as a harbinger of the end times, suggesting that the Catholic Church might be approaching its final chapter. But before succumbing to apocalyptic anxieties, a deeper dive into the legend reveals significant flaws and historical inconsistencies that cast serious doubt on its authenticity.
The St. Malachy prophecy has captivated the imaginations of Catholics and non-Catholics alike for centuries. Periodically, as new popes ascended to the throne, observers would pore over the corresponding phrase in the prophecy, attempting to find connections and meaning. This fascination reached a fever pitch in 2018 when the History Channel aired a documentary titled "The Last Pope?". A 1922 New York Times article even claimed that the prophecies "truly pictured" the three most recent popes at the time, further fueling the legend’s popularity.
However, experts across various fields, from religious scholars to historians, generally dismiss the prophecy as a historical fabrication. The most glaring issue is the timeline: while St. Malachy lived in the 12th century, the list of prophecies didn’t surface until hundreds of years after his death. Father James Weiss, an Episcopal priest and professor of church history at Boston College, bluntly states that the prophecies are a "forgery."
According to Weiss, the text in question is a list of 112 phrases, each supposedly associated with a pope, beginning with Celestine II, who ascended to the papacy in 1143. It’s crucial to note that the popes are not specifically named in the prophecy. Instead, they are identified by enigmatic descriptions like "swift bear" and "rose of Umbria." Weiss notes a stark difference in accuracy depending on the historical period. From Malachy’s lifetime through the late 16th century, when the prophecies are believed to have been written, the descriptions exhibit a remarkable level of accuracy. However, after that point, the correlation becomes far more tenuous, with some phrases seemingly aligning with real popes while others appear to be a significant stretch.
The 112th pope is described as "Peter the Roman." Following this description, the prophecy includes a short paragraph that has been interpreted by some as a doomsday prediction, foretelling the end of the world or the "second coming" of Jesus. The paragraph speaks of the destruction of the "city of seven hills" (presumably Rome) and a "dreadful judge." However, Father Weiss cautions against such a literal interpretation, suggesting that the paragraph might refer to a non-apocalyptic event, perhaps judgment by a nation’s leader.
While figures like John Hogue, who runs a blog on prophecies and believes in the accuracy of the St. Malachy predictions, have garnered attention, the overwhelming consensus among scholars leans towards skepticism. Joëlle Rollo-Koster, a medieval history professor at the University of Rhode Island and lead editor of "The Cambridge History of the Papacy," emphasizes the significant time gap between Malachy’s life and the first historical mention of the prophecy as a major red flag. Rollo-Koster points out that Malachy was well-acquainted with St. Bernard of Clairvaux, a prominent intellectual figure of the 12th century. Bernard, who admired Malachy deeply and even wrote a biography about him, made no mention of any prophecy. This omission, according to Rollo-Koster, serves as compelling evidence that Malachy never uttered or wrote any such prophecies.
The accuracy of the prophecy up until the late 16th century further supports the argument that it was written during that period. The author, possessing a deep understanding of papal history, likely chose the relatively obscure Malachy as a credible figure to attribute the prophecies to. Some scholars even suggest that the prophecy was written to support a particular cardinal’s campaign to become the next pope.
Despite the lack of historical support, believers often point to instances where the prophecies seem to align remarkably with specific popes. For example, the phrase associated with Pope John Paul II, who was two popes before Francis, is "from the labor of the sun." As it happens, John Paul II was born during a solar eclipse and buried during another. However, critics argue that such instances are often cherry-picked, and others are forced to fit by "strangulating the evidence." For example, the description "swift bear" for Pope Clement XIV in the 1700s has no apparent connection to the real man, who was known for being slow, deliberate, and indecisive.
Furthermore, the claim that Francis is the 112th and final pope relies on a specific interpretation of Church history. Francis was the 266th pope in Vatican history, but only the 101st pope officially recognized by the Church since Malachy’s time. To reach the 112th pope, believers include antipopes – figures who claimed to be pope but were not formally recognized by the Vatican.
Even the description "Peter the Roman" doesn’t perfectly align with Francis. Some argue that the connection lies in the fact that St. Francis of Assisi’s father was named Pietro, or Peter, and Pope Francis took his papal name from Francis of Assisi. Furthermore, some debate the punctuation in the prophecy’s text, suggesting that there could be an indeterminate number of popes after the 111th and before "Peter the Roman." Father Weiss dismisses this as a mere typo.
Ultimately, as Rollo-Koster aptly puts it, "It’s hard to apply logic to something that is inherently illogical." Attempting to rationalize the prophecy through numbers and interpretations is futile when it originates from a potential fabrication in the 16th century.
With a conclave to select a new pope scheduled to begin on May 7th, all signs point to a successor after Francis. The cardinals, sequestered within the Sistine Chapel in Rome, will cast their votes, signaling their decisions to the world through colored smoke. This process will continue until a new pope is elected.
The enduring appeal of prophecies like that of St. Malachy often surfaces during times of uncertainty and a perceived lack of control over one’s life. As Rollo-Koster notes, today, we benefit from greater scientific certainties. The true test of faith, according to Father Weiss, lies not in conspiracy theories and vague predictions but in our ability to interpret the signs of the times and read the Gospels. He highlights Pope Francis’s contributions to peace, poverty, and climate change as a prime example of such interpretation.
