The Papal Conclave: A World Watches as Cardinals Prepare to Elect Pope Francis’ Successor
The world’s eyes are fixed on Vatican City as Roman Catholic cardinals from across the globe prepare to convene on May 7th for the solemn task of electing a new pope. This conclave, arguably the most globally representative in history, will grapple with a multifaceted array of issues as they discern who among them is best suited to lead the Church’s 1.4 billion followers spread across all seven continents.
The cardinals will be weighing a complex interplay of factors, from geographical considerations and prevailing international political trends to the age of potential candidates and the enduring consequences of the clergy sexual abuse crisis. The conclave also presents the opportunity to either reaffirm the reforms undertaken during the 12-year reign of Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21st, or chart a new course for the Catholic Church. The age-old adage of "fat pope, thin pope" – suggesting a pendulum swing between different leadership styles – may also be at play.
The conclave proceedings are structured to ensure a thorough and prayerful discernment process. Voting will commence on May 7th, with a maximum of four rounds each day until one candidate secures a two-thirds majority. While a compromise candidate may ultimately emerge, the initial rounds could witness cardinals steadfastly supporting their preferred choices, gauging whether a particular candidate gains significant momentum.
Current sentiment appears to suggest a slight advantage for progressive voices within the College of Cardinals. Of the more than 250 members, only 133 are under the age of 80 and therefore eligible to vote. A significant majority of these eligible voters were appointed by Pope Francis, suggesting an openness to his vision for the Church.
Pope Francis consistently emphasized the importance of listening to all voices within the Church, from clergy to laity, with a particular focus on those who have been marginalized. He strove to build a more welcoming and inclusive Church, though this approach has also generated division among some members of the faithful who express reservations about greater inclusion for LGBTQ+ Catholics or the relaxation of rules pertaining to divorce and remarriage.
These divisions are already surfacing in the media, with differing perspectives on the Church’s direction being voiced by prominent cardinals. Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller of Germany, a conservative figure who was removed from a high-ranking Vatican position by Pope Francis in 2017, has spoken of "division" within the Church and called for "unity." Conversely, Cardinal Michael Czerny of Canada, a close advisor to Pope Francis, has downplayed the significance of division as a factor in the conclave.
Daniel Cosacchi, author of "Great American Prophets: Pope Francis’s Models of Christian Life," suggests that these differing interpretations of "unity" are significant. "We’ve already seen competing understandings of the word ‘unity’ from Cardinals Müller and Czerny," he stated. "I would suspect that it is unlikely that those two cardinals would be voting for the same person in the first couple of ballots."
The election of a new pope is a matter of profound importance, as the chosen leader will guide one of the world’s largest religions. Francis DeBernardo, executive director of New Ways Ministry, a Catholic outreach group advocating for LGBTQ+ acceptance, anticipates that a compromise candidate will ultimately emerge from the Sistine Chapel, signaling the selection of a new pope. However, he expresses confidence that the Church will not fundamentally retreat from Pope Francis’s efforts.
"I’m expecting that while the new pope will not be a clone of Pope Francis, he will be someone who maintains a great deal of his inclusive approach," DeBernardo stated. "Even if the cardinals elect a pope who is the opposite of Pope Francis, I think it will be very hard to undo all the good that Pope Francis had on people in the church."
Beyond internal Church matters, the next pope will be tasked with navigating the complex landscape of global politics, including the rise of far-right extremism and authoritarianism. Pope Francis was outspoken in his criticism of the Trump administration’s immigration policies and a vocal voice for peace in the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conflicts. His successor will need to decide whether to continue this trend of speaking out on global issues or adopt a more reserved approach.
Within the Church, Pope Francis initiated a shift towards a more welcoming and hospitable pastoral approach, championing the inclusion of those who have long felt excluded. He authorized clergy to bless same-sex couples, eased the annulment process for divorces, promoted greater flexibility for church participation in second marriages, and encouraged allowing those spouses to receive Communion in certain circumstances.
Susan Reynolds, interim director of Catholic Studies at Emory University, whose research focuses on race, culture, and migration, suggests that reversing these changes would be challenging. "It would be hard to backpedal on these shifts without causing real alienation," she stated.
Efforts have also been underway to expand the reach of the Vatican to emerging Catholic strongholds in Asia, Africa, and elsewhere. Pope Francis, an Argentinian, was the first pope from Latin America. By 2050, projections indicate that almost one-third of all Catholics will reside in Africa, according to the World Christian Database.
These emerging Catholic populations, particularly in Africa, tend to hold more conservative views than their counterparts in Europe and the United States. Culture and geography could therefore play a significant role in the selection of the next pope.
The Rev. James Bretzke, a theology professor at John Carroll University, emphasized the importance of global representation. "Part of being a world church means that the papacy needs to be seen as representing the cross-section of the world and not just Europe or Italy," he stated. He also raised the possibility of power struggles or biases influencing the process: "Will there be a power struggle among European cardinals vs. non-Europeans? Will racial and or ethnic differences be unnamed tensions or biases for or against some of the candidates that are otherwise considered papabile?"
The conclave is designed to continue until a pope is elected. After three days of voting without a decision, a break of up to one day is permitted for prayer, discussion, and spiritual reflection. While there is no set time limit, recent conclaves have been relatively brief. The longest conclave in modern times, held in 1903, concluded after five days with the election of Pope Pius X. In the 13th century, the papacy remained vacant for nearly three years, leading to the establishment of stricter conclave rules by Gregory X.
The Rev. Patrick Flanagan, associate professor of theology and religious studies at St. John’s University, highlighted the historical context of these rules. "According to the original prescription, if a pope had not been elected after three days, a cardinal was restricted to one dish at their meals," Flanagan noted. "After eight days, only bread, wine and water."
Despite the potential for conflict over the Church’s future direction, experts generally anticipate a relatively swift conclave. Reynolds observed that Pope Francis was elected in less than two days. "I would be surprised to see another conclave quite so brief, but I don’t anticipate that it will drag on," she said.
Several names have been frequently mentioned as potential successors to Pope Francis. These include Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, a liberal figure sometimes referred to as "Francis 2," and Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, who is considered a favorite among more conservative cardinals.
Historically, the vast majority of popes have been Italian. Matteo Zuppi and Pietro Parolin, both from Italy, are strong contenders. Zuppi is a close associate of Francis, while Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, is considered a moderate.
Flanagan cautioned against placing too much emphasis on speculation and internet buzz. He emphasized the adage "in pope, out cardinal," suggesting that those who enter the conclave expecting to be elected pope are often disappointed.
Reynolds echoed this sentiment, stating that campaigning is strongly discouraged. "Anything that feels too much like campaigning is seen as gauche," she said. "The old wisdom goes, anyone who acts like they want to be pope shouldn’t be pope."
Given the diverse composition of the electorate, predicting the outcome is challenging. If the voting process becomes prolonged, the age of the next pope could become a crucial factor, particularly for those seeking a compromise candidate. Melissa Wilde, a sociologist of religion and inequality at the University of Pennsylvania, noted that the question "How long do we want this guy in power?" becomes increasingly relevant as the conclave drags on.
Cosacchi suggests that older cardinals, such as Giovanni Battista Re, Stanislaw Dziwisz, Francis Arinze, Angelo Scola, Oswald Gracias, and Christoph Schönborn, could serve as "kingmakers" in the process.
While the United States has never produced a pope, Bretzke believes that this trend is likely to continue. He argued that a pope must be a globally accepted diplomat. "These considerations will continue, in my opinion, to prevent any American from being elected the next pope, even if otherwise he might be well qualified," Bretzke stated. "America’s image in the world simply is too powerful − and to be blunt, ugly."
The Rev. Brian E. Konkol, vice president and dean of Syracuse University’s Hendricks Chapel, emphasized the broader significance of the papal election. "The world is indeed watching and waiting, because whoever emerges will immediately become one of the most influential leaders of our generation," he stated.
Cardinal Timothy Dolan, archbishop of New York and a participant in the 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis, described the cardinals as "believers, as disciples, as brothers" rather than seeing each other solely as conservatives or progressives. He acknowledged the pressure the cardinals face during the decision-making process but recalled a moment of levity from the 2013 conclave. He said that the opening prayer from a Franciscan preacher reassured them by saying, “The Holy Spirit has already chosen the next pope. Your job is to find out who it is.”
