IDC Downgrades 2025 PC Sales Forecast, Citing Tariff Impact and Subdued Consumer Demand
The International Data Corporation (IDC), a prominent market research firm, has revised its projections for worldwide PC sales in 2025, primarily attributing the adjustment to the lingering effects of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. According to IDC, these tariffs have resulted in increased PC prices, dampening consumer enthusiasm for purchasing new devices. While the overall outlook remains positive, the projected growth rate has been tempered, signaling a more cautious approach to the PC market’s near-term performance.
Specifically, IDC now anticipates a 3.7 percent increase in global PC volume over 2024, reaching a total of 273 million units sold in 2025. This marks a slight decrease from the company’s earlier forecast in January, which had projected a 4.3 percent growth rate. When tablets are included in the equation, the overall growth rate further moderates to 2.1 percent, resulting in a combined total of 416.3 million units. The broader category of consumer device sales, encompassing both PCs and tablets, is expected to experience a modest 0.2 percent growth, reaching 236.7 million units.
Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, emphasized the impact of tariffs and subdued demand on the PC market, particularly in the United States, which is the largest consumer market for PCs. "Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the U.S. combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs," Ubrani stated. He further noted that consumer weakness is a widespread phenomenon driven by persistent macroeconomic challenges.
Despite these challenges, Ubrani highlighted potential bright spots within the market. "There are still some silver linings though: Workstation volume should remain healthy, along with near-term tablet demand in China boosted by consumer subsidies," he added. This suggests that specific segments of the PC market, such as workstations catering to professional users and tablet sales in China, may exhibit resilience and offer opportunities for growth.
IDC’s report explicitly considers the impact of tariffs on goods imported from China, an issue previously flagged by the Consumer Technology Association, which warned of potential price increases for technology products. Furthermore, the report mentions President Trump’s prediction of potential tariffs on semiconductor imports, potentially reaching 25 percent. However, the IDC indicates that these semiconductor tariffs do not appear to have been factored into the revised forecast. Should these tariffs materialize, they could further exacerbate the challenges facing the PC market by increasing component costs and ultimately driving up the price of finished products.
Looking ahead to 2025, IDC predicts that commercial PCs will be the primary driver of sales, largely fueled by Microsoft’s decision to end support for Windows 10 in October. This transition is expected to prompt businesses to upgrade their PC fleets, creating a significant demand for new commercial devices. The shift away from Windows 10 could represent a catalyst for PC refresh cycles, providing a much-needed boost to the market.
The report also addresses the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in the PC market. While AI-enabled PCs have encountered initial challenges since their launch, IDC anticipates that a more mature ecosystem will emerge by late 2025, leading to a widespread adoption of AI capabilities in new PCs by 2026. This suggests that AI will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the PC market, driving innovation and influencing consumer purchasing decisions.
It’s important to note that IDC is owned by IDG Communications, which is also the parent company of PCWorld.com and its Foundry division. This affiliation could potentially influence IDC’s market analysis and reporting, though there is no indication of bias in this particular report.
The article is written by Mark, a veteran technology journalist with 30 years of experience covering the PC industry. Mark has authored over 3,500 articles for PCWorld alone, specializing in PC microprocessors, peripherals, and Microsoft Windows. His extensive knowledge and experience lend credibility to the article and provide valuable insights into the complexities of the PC market.
In summary, IDC’s revised forecast for PC sales in 2025 reflects the challenges posed by tariffs, subdued consumer demand, and macroeconomic uncertainties. While the overall outlook remains positive, the tempered growth rate highlights the need for caution and strategic adaptation among PC manufacturers and vendors. The shift towards commercial PCs, driven by the end of Windows 10 support, and the increasing integration of AI technologies represent key trends that will shape the future of the PC market. The potential impact of semiconductor tariffs remains a significant concern, underscoring the need for policymakers to carefully consider the implications of trade policies on the technology industry.
The revised projections underscore the complex interplay of economic factors, technological advancements, and consumer behavior that influence the PC market. As the industry navigates these challenges, a focus on innovation, cost management, and targeted marketing strategies will be essential for success. The emergence of AI-enabled PCs and the ongoing transition towards commercial devices represent promising opportunities for growth, while the potential impact of semiconductor tariffs remains a significant risk factor that warrants close monitoring.
