The Papal Conclave: Awaiting the Smoke Signals from Vatican City

As May 7th approaches, the world’s attention turns to Vatican City, where the sacred process of electing a new leader for the Catholic Church will unfold. Thousands of onlookers are expected to gather in St. Peter’s Square, their eyes fixed on the iconic Sistine Chapel, patiently awaiting the first signal of the conclave’s progress.

On this day, 135 cardinals, the highest-ranking officials within the Catholic Church, will convene to begin the weighty task of choosing the successor to Pope Francis. The entire process is steeped in tradition and secrecy, shrouded in an atmosphere of prayer and deliberation. While the inner workings of the conclave remain confidential, the outside world receives updates through a centuries-old tradition: the release of colored smoke from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney.

Black smoke serves as an indication that a conclusive decision has not yet been reached, signaling the need for further rounds of voting. Conversely, the appearance of white smoke signifies that a new pope has been successfully elected. The anticipation surrounding these smoke signals is palpable, as they represent the culmination of intense discussions, prayers, and ultimately, the selection of the next leader for over a billion Catholics worldwide.

The first smoke signal is anticipated on the evening of Wednesday, May 7th. The world will be holding its breath, hoping for an early resolution.

Understanding the Papal Conclave

A papal conclave is fundamentally an election, a carefully orchestrated process by which the College of Cardinals chooses a new pope. The College of Cardinals is comprised of bishops and Vatican officials who have been specifically selected by the preceding pope. These cardinals are entrusted with the responsibility of discerning who among them is best suited to lead the Church as pontiff. As of May 5th, 135 cardinals are eligible to participate and vote in the upcoming conclave, as indicated by The Holy See’s College of Cardinals Dashboard.

During the conclave, the cardinals are strictly sequestered. This means they are isolated from the outside world, unable to communicate with anyone beyond the confines of the conclave. This measure is intended to ensure that the cardinals can deliberate and vote without external pressures or influences.

Before the actual voting begins, the cardinals engage in thorough discussions, addressing the challenges and needs confronting the Catholic Church in the modern world. They then convene in St. Peter’s Basilica to invoke the guidance of the Holy Spirit, seeking divine inspiration to guide them in choosing the right successor. This spiritual preparation underscores the gravity of their task and the importance of seeking divine wisdom in their decision-making process.

The actual election takes place within the Sistine Chapel, a space of immense artistic and historical significance. Once inside, the cardinals take a solemn oath of secrecy, vowing to maintain the confidentiality of the conclave’s proceedings. The doors of the chapel are then sealed, further reinforcing the seclusion and privacy of the election.

Each cardinal casts his vote by secret ballot. As he prepares to cast his vote, he recites a prayer, invoking divine assistance in making the right choice. He then carefully folds his ballot and places it into a large chalice, according to procedures established by the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops. This meticulous process ensures the integrity and anonymity of each cardinal’s vote.

If no single candidate receives the required two-thirds majority vote, another election is held. This cycle of voting continues until a candidate finally secures the necessary support. The duration of a conclave can vary considerably, ranging from a single day to several weeks, depending on the level of consensus among the cardinals.

Historical Context and Smoke Signals

Historically, papal conclaves have varied significantly in length. The longest conclave on record lasted an astonishing 34 months, nearly three years, culminating in the election of Pope Gregory X in 1271, according to EWTN Vatican. In stark contrast, the conclave that elected Pope Francis in 2013 concluded in just one day.

The tradition of using black and white smoke to signal the conclave’s progress has deep historical roots. Given that the cardinals are sequestered and unable to communicate directly with the outside world, this visual method was developed as a means of informing the public about the status of the election.

If no candidate receives the necessary two-thirds majority in a given round of voting, the ballots are burned in a stove, along with a mixture of chemicals designed to produce black smoke. This black smoke serves as a clear indication that further voting is required.

However, if a candidate is successfully elected, the final round of ballots are burned with a different set of chemicals that create white smoke. This white smoke is the signal that the world awaits, as it announces the election of a new pope.

While there is no fixed schedule for the release of smoke signals, experts often rely on past conclaves to make educated estimates. Given the introductory activities scheduled for the first day, including a special sermon led by a senior church official, it is anticipated that the cardinals will likely conduct only one round of voting on May 7th. According to Matthew Gabriele, a medieval studies professor at Virginia Tech, white or black smoke could be expected around 7-8 p.m. local time (1-2 p.m. ET).

If a decision is not reached on the first day, the next smoke signal is likely to be shared mid-morning on Thursday, May 8th. The cardinals have the capacity to conduct up to four rounds of voting in a single day if necessary. In such cases, Gabriele anticipates that smoke signals would occur around mid-morning, noon, mid-afternoon, and evening.

In 2013, during the conclave that resulted in the election of Pope Francis, the first black smoke signal appeared at approximately 7:41 p.m. local time, as reported by America Magazine.

The Chemistry of Smoke

The black and white smoke originates from a cast iron stove located inside the Sistine Chapel. There are actually two stoves, one used for burning the ballots and the other solely for producing the colored smoke.

During the 2013 conclave, the black smoke was generated using a combination of potassium perchlorate, anthracene (a component of coal tar), and sulfur.

To produce the white smoke, the conclave utilized a mixture of potassium chlorate, lactose, and chloroform resin.

Once a candidate receives the required two-thirds majority of votes, accepts the position, and chooses his papal name, the senior cardinal deacon makes the official announcement from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica. The new pope then emerges to greet the crowd, marking the beginning of his pontificate.

The world watches and waits, ready to welcome the next leader of the Catholic Church.