The Race to Replace Pope Francis: A Look at Potential Successors
The Catholic Church stands at a pivotal moment, preparing to select its next leader. With Pope Francis’s tenure drawing to a close, the College of Cardinals, the body responsible for electing the pope, is gearing up for a conclave. The election process is shrouded in secrecy, with no formal candidate process dictating who can be chosen. Theoretically, any Catholic male is eligible, though tradition heavily favors selecting a cardinal.
For over three millennia, the College of Cardinals has consistently chosen its leader from within its own ranks. Experts widely believe this pattern will persist when the conclave commences. Yet, amidst the speculation, a clear frontrunner has yet to emerge, leaving the field open for a diverse array of potential successors. The 138-member electoral body is thought to be split into several ideological camps, meaning the choice of the next pontiff will be closely observed.
Several prominent cardinals have emerged as potential candidates, each representing a different facet of the Catholic Church. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, is widely considered a leading contender. As the highest-ranking diplomat in the Holy See, the governing body of the Catholic Church, Parolin possesses considerable experience in navigating complex international relations. His politically moderate stance and diplomatic background have garnered favor among cardinals in the Sacred College. Appointed by Pope Francis in 2014, his election would likely be seen as a continuation of the current papacy’s direction.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines is another prominent figure in the running. Serving as the pro-prefect for the section of first evangelization of the Dicastery for Evangelization, as well as president of the Interdicasterial Commission for Consecrated Religious, Tagle holds significant influence within the Church. He has been dubbed the "Asian Pope Francis" due to his more inclusive views on the LGBTQI community. In past interviews, Tagle has voiced concern that the Church’s rigid stance on LGBTQI individuals, divorcees, and single mothers has been detrimental. His selection would be hailed by more progressive Catholics, especially considering the evolving demographics of the Church.
However, conservative voices within the College of Cardinals also hold considerable sway. Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary is a notable conservative candidate who has publicly criticized Pope Francis’s stance on divorce and immigration. Erdo firmly believes that divorced and remarried Catholics should be barred from receiving Holy Communion, upholding the "indissolubility of marriage." His appointment would signal a significant shift in direction for the Church, emphasizing a return to traditional doctrines. Erdo has also expressed divergent views on immigration, arguing that allowing refugees to resettle could be seen as human trafficking.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, has emerged as a notable candidate, particularly after his offer to exchange himself as a hostage for the Israeli children abducted by Hamas. While the exchange did not occur, Pizzaballa’s act of selflessness garnered international attention and elevated his profile within the Church. If selected, Pizzaballa would be the first Italian pope in five decades, breaking the trend of non-Italian pontiffs. However, his extensive experience in the Middle East gives him a global perspective that could appeal to the College of Cardinals.
Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonca, a Portuguese cardinal serving as the prefect of the Vatican’s Dicastery for Culture and Education, is another name frequently mentioned. Being among the youngest potential successors to Pope Francis could be either an advantage or disadvantage. He is aligned with Pope Francis on various issues, which has attracted some controversy, including issues related to same-sex relationships. De Mendonca is considered a liberal leaning cardinal because of his push for the Church to engage with modern culture, for instance, his support of a feminist Benedictine sister who favors women’s ordination and is pro-choice.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo is another conservative contender. Africa’s Catholic population is growing rapidly, making his candidacy particularly significant. Ambongo publicly rejected Pope Francis’s blessing of same-sex couples, reflecting the strong conservative views held by many African Catholics.
Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke, a Wisconsin native and former archbishop of St. Louis, is considered the leading American candidate and a staunch conservative. He is a proponent of the Latin Mass and has criticized Pope Francis’s approach to artificial contraception, LGBT issues, and civil marriages.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the president of the Italian Episcopal Conference, is considered an insider in Francis’ Vatican. He is viewed as one of Pope Francis’s favorites. He was sent on a peace mission in 2023 to Ukraine, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and to the United States, where he met with President Joe Biden.
Cardinal Anders Arborelius, the first Swedish cardinal in history, has become one of the favorites. As Sweden is a predominately Protestant nation with Catholics making up just over 1% of the country, Arborelius’ elevation from Bishop to Cardinal by Pope Francis in 2017 is seen as an advantage.
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline of Marseille, France, is seen as a top contender for those seeking a continuation of Pope Francis’s principles, particularly on social justice and immigration. His experience working with diverse communities in Marseille, a city known as a crossroads between Africa and Europe, gives him a unique perspective on migration issues.
The upcoming conclave promises to be a historic event. Of the 252 cardinals in the Sacred College, only 138 are under the age of 80 and therefore are permitted to participate in the conclave. After the death of a pope, the conclave will hold repeated votes until a pope is chosen by a two-thirds majority. The ballots will be burned with a chemical that produces white smoke, to alert the world that a new pope has been chosen.
