The Papal Conclave: Betting Markets, Predictions, and the Search for Pope Francis’ Successor
The world’s attention is once again drawn to Vatican City as 132 cardinals prepare to convene in the Sistine Chapel for a papal conclave. Their solemn task is to elect a new leader for the Catholic Church, a successor to Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21st. While the inner workings of the conclave remain shrouded in secrecy, external observers are attempting to decipher the tea leaves, with betting markets emerging as an unlikely source of insights.
Speculation regarding potential candidates has been rife since Pope Francis’ death. Among the names frequently mentioned are Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle. Betting markets, often used to predict outcomes in politics and sports, have also entered the fray, offering odds on the likelihood of each cardinal ascending to the papacy.
Cardinal Parolin, an Italian diplomat who served as Pope Francis’ Secretary of State, is seen by many as a compromise candidate, capable of bridging the divide between progressive and conservative factions within the Church. His extensive experience in Vatican administration and his reputation as a skilled negotiator have made him a frontrunner in the eyes of many observers, including those participating in betting markets.
Cardinal Tagle, the Filipino former Archbishop of Manila, is another prominent contender. Often referred to as the "Asian Francis" due to his shared commitment to social justice, Tagle represents a more progressive vision for the Church. His election would mark a historic milestone, making him the first pontiff from Asia.
However, the reliability of betting markets as accurate predictors of the papal election has been called into question. Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University specializing in election outcomes and betting market predictions, urges caution when interpreting these wagers.
Crane acknowledges the growing interest in the papal conclave and the corresponding activity in betting markets. However, he points out that these markets are relatively small compared to those focused on elections, sports, or business. The U.S. presidential election, for instance, draws billions of dollars in bets, while the wagers on the next pope amount to only a few million.
Crane identifies three key elements that drive betting markets: information, risk, and recreational interest. Presidential elections, he argues, possess all three in abundance. Ample data is available, the stakes are high due to the global impact of U.S. policy decisions, and the general public is highly engaged. This combination leads to larger markets and, consequently, more accurate predictions.
In contrast, the papal conclave lacks the same level of information and risk. The secrecy surrounding the proceedings limits the availability of reliable data, and the potential financial consequences of the outcome are relatively minor. While there is growing recreational interest in the election of the next pope, it is not enough to attract significant participation from professional bettors.
Despite these limitations, Crane suggests that betting markets may still offer some insights into the likely candidates. He draws a parallel to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when doubts about Joe Biden’s performance led to fluctuations in the betting odds based on limited information.
"We saw those odds change pretty drastically based on very little information about what Nancy Pelosi may or may not have said," Crane explains. "In a way, they’re very similar because that was done behind closed doors, and the (conclave) is done behind closed doors."
While Crane doubts that these markets will be as precise as larger markets focused around elections, sports, or business, he suggests that they may have at least identified the most likely candidates.
"Does it have more predictability than if you just picked one out of 130 cardinals, and you gave them all the same chance of winning? I would say yeah probably," Crane stated.
Beyond Parolin and Tagle, other potential candidates include Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana, Archbishop Matteo Maria Zuppi of Bologna, Italy, Latin Patriarch Pierbattista Pizzaballa of Jerusalem, and Cardinal Peter Erdő of Hungary.
Cardinal Turkson, who would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa, brings a unique perspective to the table, having served in various Vatican offices and witnessed the challenges facing the Church in both developing and developed regions.
Archbishop Zuppi, often called "the Italian Bergoglio" because of his affinity with Francis, is known for his focus on migrants and the poor and his disregard for pomp and protocol. His election would signal a continuation of Pope Francis’ emphasis on social justice.
Latin Patriarch Pizzaballa, who has served in Jerusalem, has advocated for peace in the Middle East. However, his relative youth may be a disadvantage, as cardinals often prefer a candidate with more experience.
Cardinal Erdő, seen as another compromise candidate, is considered a conservative in theology but also pragmatic. He has never openly clashed with Francis, unlike other tradition-minded clerics.
Ultimately, the decision of who will become the next pope rests with the 132 cardinals who will gather in the Sistine Chapel. The conclave is a deeply spiritual process, guided by prayer and discernment. While betting markets and external analysis may offer some insights, the true outcome will remain uncertain until the white smoke rises above the Vatican, signaling that a new pope has been chosen. The world awaits, with bated breath, the announcement of the next leader of the Catholic Church.
