A Shifting Landscape: The Upcoming Papal Conclave and Its Unique Characteristics
The Roman Catholic Church, steeped in tradition and history that stretches back over a millennium, is preparing for a pivotal moment: the conclave to elect a successor to Pope Francis, scheduled to begin on May 7th. As with any papal election, the event will be marked by time-honored rituals – the sequestration of cardinal electors, the oath of secrecy binding all participants, and the symbolic smoke signals emanating from the Sistine Chapel to announce the outcome of each vote. These traditions serve as a powerful reminder of the Church’s enduring legacy and its commitment to a process rooted in centuries of practice.
However, while the framework of the conclave remains largely unchanged, the upcoming election will be unlike any seen before. The papacy of Pope Francis, characterized by his outreach to the marginalized and his emphasis on global perspectives, has left an indelible mark on the College of Cardinals and, consequently, on the dynamics of this upcoming conclave. These shifts, though subtle in some aspects, promise to reshape the landscape of papal elections and potentially influence the future direction of the Church.
One of the most significant departures from historical norms is the sheer number of cardinal electors participating. While Pope Paul VI established a limit of 120 cardinal electors in 1975, a rule that has occasionally been surpassed in consistories (meetings of the College of Cardinals), this conclave will see a record-breaking number of voters. Of the 252 current cardinals, 135 are under the age of 80, the threshold for eligibility to vote. Although Cardinals Antonio Cañizares of Spain and John Njue of Kenya have cited health concerns as reasons for their absence, the conclave will still feature 133 voting cardinals.
This unprecedented number is further amplified by the fact that a vast majority – 108 cardinals, representing more than 80% of the electorate – were appointed by Pope Francis himself. While this does not guarantee the election of a progressive-minded successor who will closely mirror Francis’s policies, it does significantly reduce the likelihood of a staunch conservative being chosen. The requirement of a two-thirds majority for election ensures that any potential candidate must garner broad support across the diverse spectrum of the College of Cardinals.
Beyond the sheer numbers, the geographical distribution of the cardinal electors represents another significant departure from tradition. For the first time in recent memory, European cardinals comprise less than 50% of the voting body, accounting for just 47% of the electorate. This trend, which has been gradually developing for decades, reflects the growing prominence of the Church in other regions of the world.
The increased representation of Latin America (18%), Asia and the Pacific (16%), and Africa and the Middle East (14%) is particularly noteworthy. Each of these regions now accounts for at least 14% of the voting cardinals, a figure that matches the representation of Italy, which has historically dominated these events. The most significant gains have been made by the Asian and African contingents since the 2013 conclave that elected Francis, a testament to his efforts to engage with these regions and elevate their role within the Church.
This shift in geographical representation raises the possibility of a non-European pope, a prospect that was once considered highly unlikely. While there have been three African popes in the Church’s early history – Victor I, Miltiades, and Gelasius I – all of whom are believed to have been Black and born during the Roman Empire, there has not been a pope from Africa since the end of the fifth century. Similarly, there has never been a pope from Asia.
Among the names frequently mentioned as potential candidates for the papacy is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, a 67-year-old Filipino prelate and close ally of Pope Francis. As a native of the Philippines, home to the largest Catholic population in Asia and the third largest in the world, Tagle represents a significant departure from the traditional European mold. His inclusion on nearly every list of potential candidates underscores the growing acceptance of non-European leaders within the Church.
Furthermore, two African cardinals – Peter Turkson of Ghana and Fridolin Ambongo of the Democratic Republic of Congo – are also frequently cited as potential contenders. Both are known for their advocacy for social justice and their deep understanding of the challenges facing the Church in Africa. The Church in Africa is experiencing robust growth, with the number of African Catholics increasing by more than 3% between 2022 and 2023, reaching a total of over 280 million, representing 20% of the global Catholic population.
The historical dominance of Italian pontiffs, which lasted for 455 consecutive years, has waned in recent decades. The election of John Paul II, the Polish-born pope who succeeded John Paul I in 1978, marked the end of this era. Subsequent popes, Benedict XVI from Germany and Francis from Argentina, further solidified the trend away from Italian leadership. While there are still strong Italian contenders among the current cardinals, including Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin and Bologna Archbishop Matteo Zuppi, their chances of success are diminished by the reduced representation of Italian voters in the conclave.
The composition of the College of Cardinals for this upcoming conclave is a testament to Pope Francis’s commitment to inclusivity and his desire for the Church to reflect the diversity of its global membership. The electors hail from 71 countries, with Italy leading with 17, followed by the United States with 10, and Brazil with seven. The presence of over two dozen cardinal electors from countries that have never previously voted for a pope, including Rwanda, Myanmar, and South Sudan, further underscores the changing dynamics of the Church.
As Massimo Faggioli, a professor of theology and religious studies at Villanova University, aptly observed, the upcoming conclave has become “more exotic.” The increased representation of cardinals from Asia and North Africa, many of whom are considered potential candidates for the papacy, marks a significant departure from the historical norms that have shaped papal elections for centuries.
The upcoming conclave promises to be a truly historic event, reflecting the evolving demographics and priorities of the Catholic Church in the 21st century. While the traditions and rituals of the conclave will remain intact, the composition of the College of Cardinals and the potential for a non-European pope signal a new era in the Church’s history. The outcome of this election will undoubtedly have profound implications for the future direction of the Church and its role in the world.
