Germany’s 2023 Federal Election: Significant Electoral Reforms
The upcoming German federal election on February 23 marks not only an unusually early date but also significant changes to the electoral system. Here’s a comprehensive guide to what voters need to know about the new rules and their potential impact on the composition of the Bundestag:
Double Vote System Remains
Voters still have two votes: a first vote and a second vote. The first vote is cast for a candidate from a specific constituency, while the second vote is cast for a political party.
Newly Formed Constituency
The number of constituencies has increased from 46 to 47 due to population growth in Bavaria. The new constituency of Memmingen-Unterallgäu has been created by combining parts of the existing constituencies of Augsburg-Land, Neu-Ulm, and Ostallgäu. This change reflects the growing population in Bavaria and the declining population in Saxony-Anhalt, which has lost a constituency.
Fewer Bundestag Seats
The new electoral law has reduced the number of seats in the Bundestag to 630. Additionally, so-called overhang and compensation mandates have been eliminated. These had previously allowed for a larger number of Bundestag members, reaching 736 in the previous legislature. The electoral reform aims to prevent the Bundestag from continuing to expand indefinitely.
Seat Allocation Based on Second Votes
Only second votes will determine the number of seats allocated to each party in the Bundestag. Parties that clear the 5% threshold or win at least three direct mandates will enter the Bundestag. The votes cast for these parties nationwide will be distributed proportionately to the 630 seats. Subsequently, each party’s seats will be distributed among the federal states. A higher voter turnout in Bavaria, for instance, will result in more Bavarian members of parliament.
Direct Mandates and First Votes
First votes determine direct mandates and thus play a role in which candidates from each party enter the Bundestag. Successful candidates are prioritized when distributing seats according to party. Once all direct candidates have received a seat, the remaining seats are allocated via party lists.
Unfilled Constituencies Possible
It is unclear how many Bundestag members will be elected from Bavaria. This will ultimately depend on voter turnout in Bavaria compared to other states and the number of votes cast for parties that enter the Bundestag. This also applies to the CSU, which is a special case because it only runs in Bavaria. A calculation by the Federal Returning Officer based on the new electoral law and the results of the previous federal election projected 97 seats for members of parliament from Bavaria. However, the actual outcome will depend on the election results.
Risk of Unrepresented Constituencies
The new electoral system raises the possibility of "orphaned" constituencies without a Bundestag representative. This could occur if a party wins fewer seats via its second vote than direct mandates in constituencies. In such cases, candidates with the weakest first-vote results would lose out. Under the old electoral law, this would have resulted in the now-abolished overhang and compensation mandates.
Metropolitan Constituencies Most Affected
According to election researcher Jörg Siegmund of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, this could particularly affect constituencies in large cities such as Munich, Nuremberg, and Augsburg. Siegmund explains that "party competition is generally closer here, and even the top-ranked direct candidate receives a relatively low share of first votes."
However, Thomas Gößl, the Bavarian State Returning Officer, has noted that "even if a party wins all or nearly all direct mandates but remains significantly below 50%, this would not necessarily be the case, especially if Bavaria again has an above-average voter turnout."
Reduced Strategic Voting
"Tactical voting in the sense of trying to influence the composition of the Bundestag more than other voters with their vote is hardly possible anymore," says Siegmund. Voters may still choose to support a less preferred party with their second vote to help it clear the 5% threshold and enter the Bundestag, where it could potentially become a coalition partner with their preferred party. However, such behavior would weaken their preferred party, according to Siegmund. "The significance of the first vote has thus been somewhat reduced."
