New Caledonia: A Crumbling Jewel?
The recent turmoil in New Caledonia, sparked by the events of May 13, 2024, has once again brought the territory’s complex political landscape into sharp focus. As Manuel Valls embarks on what is described as a final attempt at negotiation in Bourail, the deep divisions between loyalists and separatists seem more intractable than ever. The situation raises fundamental questions about France’s future role in the region and the best path forward for New Caledonia itself.
The author paints a grim picture of the current state of affairs. They argue that the separatists are gaining ground not through democratic means, but through violence, attrition, and a perceived gradual abandonment of New Caledonia by the French state. The suspension of electoral roll reform, a measure deemed essential to ensuring equal rights, is seen as a concession to violence and a betrayal of republican principles. The exclusion of long-term French residents from voting on the territory’s future, despite paying taxes and contributing to society, is portrayed as a glaring injustice that fuels a sense of abandonment among loyalists.
The article highlights the exodus of thousands of metropolitan French citizens, whose skills and expertise are crucial to the functioning of public services. While the Caldoches, the European population of New Caledonia, remain attached to their land, many are contemplating a future elsewhere for their children. The persistent insecurity and the separatists’ refusal to condemn violence create an unfavorable climate for investment and economic growth.
The "special status" of New Caledonia is deemed unsustainable. The article argues that the territory’s semi-autonomous status, with its complex interplay of common law, Caledonian law, and customary law, has created legal uncertainty in crucial areas. The Nouméa Accords, signed in 1998 for a period of twenty years, are now considered obsolete. Despite the autonomy granted in key sectors such as social security and taxation, New Caledonia remains heavily dependent on France.
The separatists’ demands for sovereign powers and a role in international relations are viewed as a step too far, amounting to the end of French sovereignty. A compromise that prolongs the instability would only encourage the departure of Europeans and investors. The author expresses concern that a demographic shift towards a Kanak majority could lead to renewed violence aimed at forcing independence.
The article proposes departmentalization as a potential solution. Drawing a parallel with Mayotte, which became a French department in 2011, the author argues that New Caledonia is even better positioned for this transition, given its greater wealth, smaller population, modern infrastructure, and significant European population. Departmentalization would end the clientelistic system controlled by the separatists, who allegedly maintain a victimhood narrative despite being a minority, as demonstrated by the three referendums held in 2018, 2020, and 2021.
The author raises a critical question about France’s willingness and ability to pursue departmentalization or maintain New Caledonia within its sphere of influence. The context of political crisis, debt, and indifference from the mainland French public is acknowledged. However, the article emphasizes the importance of preserving New Caledonia as a French jewel, arguing that departmentalization would provide legal, economic, and political stability, ensure equal rights for all residents, and safeguard French sovereignty against separatist pressures. The article concludes by posing the rhetorical question: "What could be more republican?"
The events in New Caledonia require a thorough understanding of the historical context, the diverse perspectives of the various stakeholders, and the potential consequences of different policy options. A successful resolution will require a commitment to dialogue, compromise, and a shared vision for the future of the territory.
The concerns raised about the potential for violence and instability, the exodus of skilled workers, and the lack of economic opportunity are all valid and deserve serious consideration. It is also important to address the grievances of the Kanak people, who have long sought greater autonomy and recognition of their cultural identity.
The question of electoral reform is particularly sensitive. While the author argues that the current system excludes long-term residents from the democratic process, it is also important to acknowledge the historical context of colonialism and the need to protect the rights of the indigenous Kanak population.
Departmentalization is presented as a potential solution, but it is not without its challenges. It could be seen as a step backwards by those who seek greater autonomy or independence for New Caledonia. It is also important to consider the financial implications of departmentalization for both New Caledonia and France.
Ultimately, the future of New Caledonia will depend on the ability of all parties to engage in constructive dialogue and find a solution that respects the rights and aspirations of all residents. The stakes are high, and the consequences of failure could be dire.
In addition to the issues raised in the article, it is also important to consider the geopolitical context of New Caledonia. The territory is strategically located in the South Pacific, and its future could have implications for regional security and stability. China’s growing influence in the region is another factor to consider.
France has a long history in New Caledonia, and it has a responsibility to ensure that the territory’s future is one of peace, prosperity, and stability. This will require a commitment to dialogue, compromise, and a willingness to address the complex challenges facing New Caledonia.
