Neustadt-Speyer: A Microcosm of Germany’s Electoral Landscape
The colorful bar chart presented a peculiar familiarity. In the 208th electoral district of Rhineland-Palatinate, voters rubbed their eyes in astonishment after the Bundestag election three and a half years ago. No wonder: In terms of party results, Neustadt-Speyer had astonishingly mirrored the national outcome almost exactly.
A Palatinate electoral district as a reflection of the republic? Is Neustadt-Speyer typically German?
"This observation cannot be limited to 2021," says political scientist Uwe Jun from Trier. "In 2017 and 2013, Neustadt-Speyer was also very close to the overall result of the Bundestag election for almost all relevant parties."
While the 2021 outcome was not precisely at the federal level, it was nevertheless close: The SPD emerged as the strongest party with 27.3 percent (25.7 percent nationwide), followed by the CDU with 24.0 percent (24.1 percent), and the Greens with 13.9 percent (14.8 percent). As in the federal election, the FDP (12.7 percent) and the AfD (10.2 percent) placed behind them (11.5 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively). In recent weeks, SWR also reported on the "numerical magic" in the current Electoral District 207 in ARD’s Morgenmagazin.
Germany in miniature – this was not the first time this region had played such a role. From 1986 to 2022, the municipality of Haßloch served as a test market for new products in German consumer research. Thousands of people participated with their purchases in deciding which chocolate bars or deodorants would hit the market. What was not purchased in the large village with around 20,000 inhabitants often did not reach the stores nationwide.
But why did the electoral district so accurately reflect the federal result in 2021, with a victory for the SPD? Traditionally, Neustadt-Speyer votes rather conservatively. Sixty years ago, Bernhard Vogel, who later became CDU Prime Minister, won the district, followed by party luminaries such as Theo Magin and Norbert Schindler. In 2017 and 2021, Johannes Steiniger, the current CDU General Secretary, secured the direct mandate.
As for the first votes, there were hardly any surprises. CDU successes with more than 40 percent were not uncommon. The Christian Democrats were often ahead in the second votes as well – except in 2021. Here, the SPD, led by Isabel Mackensen-Geis, emerged victorious. The Bundestag member is now facing Steiniger again.
In search of the precise explanation, one must delve into the details, says expert Jun, and examine socio-demographic characteristics such as income, gender, age, religion, and marital status. "What you can observe in the electoral district is a juxtaposition of urban areas, namely the cities of Speyer and Neustadt, and the rural areas. This is actually quite typical for Germany. Here, these are not large cities, but medium-sized ones. This is certainly something that could serve as a model."
Of the 299 electoral districts in Germany, 15 are located in Rhineland-Palatinate. Their boundaries have not changed compared to the 2021 Bundestag election. How does a number expert like Heinrich Hemme view this similarity? "The results for CDU/CSU, SPD, AfD, FDP, Linke, and Greens fluctuated in each constituency more or less around the nationwide result," says the physics professor.
This was not surprising. "Among the 299 electoral districts, there was of course one that was closer to the nationwide result, than all the others, and that was Neustadt-Speyer in 2021," Hemme says. "What may seem like a great oddity to the people in this electoral district is in fact something quite mundane."
The situation would be different if one were to focus on a very specific electoral district alone. "That this particular electoral district has a result that corresponds almost exactly to the nationwide result is very unlikely," the scientist emphasizes. It is similar to the case of body height.
"The average adult woman in Germany is 1.66 meters tall," Hemme explains. "It is almost certain that there is a German woman who is exactly this tall. However, it is unlikely that a particular German woman, for example, the next-to-next chancellor, will be exactly 1.66 meters tall."
For Sunday, expert Jun considers it conceivable that there could be another close match, despite the short election campaign and the February vote. "I don’t think the timing will have any serious impact." The date does not change essential data, party affiliations, candidate preferences, and issues that have been set. "And these," says the political scientist, "are the essential determinants of voting behavior."
