The Bubble Bursts: A Look at Teams Fighting for NCAA Tournament Berths
With Selection Sunday looming, the landscape of the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament is beginning to take shape. The expected powerhouses, teams like South Carolina, LSU, USC, and N.C. State, are virtually guaranteed spots, their resumes glittering with consistent performance and conference dominance. Combine these with the automatic bids earned by conference champions, roughly 31 in total, and the field of 68 shrinks considerably.
This leaves a handful of coveted at-large bids, and a gaggle of teams anxiously perched on the "bubble," their fates hanging in the balance. These teams are a mix of those who started strong but faltered down the stretch, and those who have shown flashes of brilliance interspersed with disappointing losses. Over the next two weeks, they face a crucial period to solidify their resumes and convince the selection committee that they deserve a place in the Big Dance. Let’s delve into some of these anxious contenders.
Virginia Tech Hokies: The Hokies find themselves in a precarious position. Playing in a competitive conference, the ACC, certainly adds weight to their wins, especially those against Louisville and Georgia Tech. The double-overtime victory against Georgia Tech, secured on the road, is a particularly significant mark on their record. However, their resume is marred by home losses to Stanford and Syracuse, which raise concerns about their consistency. For the Hokies, a strong showing in the upcoming ACC Tournament is paramount. Securing at least one or two wins could be the difference between a tournament berth and a disappointing end to their season.
Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers enjoyed a period where they seemed like a shoo-in for the tournament. A dominant 20-point road victory over then-No. 17 Maryland was a statement win, suggesting their potential to compete with the best. Unfortunately, their performance against other ranked teams has been less impressive, with losses that haven’t been particularly close. The most damaging blow to their tournament hopes came in the form of a home loss to Washington, a result that has significantly undermined their credibility. The committee will undoubtedly scrutinize this loss when evaluating their overall body of work.
Washington Huskies: The Huskies epitomize the term "bubble team." Their resume features notable wins against Minnesota and Nebraska, demonstrating their capacity to upset quality opponents. Furthermore, they’ve suffered several close losses to strong teams like USC, Oregon, and Maryland, indicating their ability to compete at a high level. However, near-wins don’t count as wins. The Huskies need to turn those close losses into actual victories. A strong finish to the regular season, highlighted by a win against Oregon, provides some momentum. More importantly, a successful run in the Big Ten tournament, ideally winning a game or two, would significantly bolster their chances of earning an at-large bid.
Saint Joseph’s Hawks: Already teetering on the edge, Saint Joseph’s might have sealed its fate with a recent loss to Dayton. While they have convincing wins against George Mason and a "good" loss to Utah, their resume is also weighed down by a loss to VCU, a team with a losing record both overall and within the Atlantic 10 conference. The committee values consistency and avoiding bad losses, and the VCU defeat will undoubtedly raise red flags. The Hawks will likely need a miracle run in their conference tournament to resurrect their tournament hopes.
Colorado Buffaloes: The Buffaloes possess a resume featuring wins against West Virginia and Kansas State, solidifying their ability to compete with Power Five conference teams. Furthermore, six of their ten losses have come against ranked teams or teams receiving votes, indicating they’ve faced a challenging schedule. However, the committee places a strong emphasis on the competitiveness of those losses. The fact that most of these losses haven’t been close raises concerns about their ability to compete against top-tier opponents. Adding to their woes is the uncertainty surrounding the availability of their leading scorer, Frida Formann, who is currently sidelined with a stress fracture in her foot. Her absence could significantly impact their chances in the Pac-12 tournament and, consequently, their tournament aspirations.
Iowa State Cyclones: The Cyclones deserve credit for their challenging non-conference schedule, which included games against UConn, South Carolina, and Iowa. These games, regardless of the outcome, provide valuable experience and test the team’s mettle. However, their signature win is a 30-point victory over Colorado at home. While impressive, it may not be enough to sway the committee. They desperately need a high-quality win to elevate their resume. A victory against Kansas State would be a significant boost and could propel them into tournament consideration.
Quinnipiac Bobcats: The Bobcats are considered a long shot for an at-large bid. The question facing them is whether the committee will award two bids to the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC). If the committee is inclined to do so, Quinnipiac deserves consideration. Their resume includes a narrow overtime loss to Miami and another loss to MAAC leader Fairfield. The Bobcats will need to make a compelling case that their overall body of work is deserving of a tournament berth, particularly when compared to other bubble teams from more prominent conferences.
Princeton Tigers: The Ivy League presents a unique situation, with the potential for multiple teams vying for at-large bids. However, it’s unlikely the committee will award three bids to the conference. Harvard is likely in due to the strength of their schedule, while Columbia currently leads the league standings. Princeton’s best chance of securing a tournament berth is to defeat Harvard, demonstrating their ability to compete with the conference’s top team. Even then, they would likely need Harvard to win the Ivy League tournament, thereby securing the automatic bid and potentially opening up an at-large spot.
The next two weeks are a gauntlet for these bubble teams. Every game carries immense weight, and the pressure to perform is palpable. The selection committee will be closely monitoring these teams, scrutinizing their wins, losses, strength of schedule, and overall performance. The margin between making the tournament and being left out is razor-thin, and a single win or loss could ultimately determine their fate. As the conference tournaments unfold, the bubble will inevitably burst for some teams, while others will celebrate their hard-earned entry into the NCAA Tournament. The drama is just beginning.
