A Rocky Start, A Weary Victory: Merz Becomes Chancellor Amidst Turbulence

Germany has a new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, but his ascension to power followed a tumultuous path. Roughly ten weeks after a snap federal election, Merz, leader of the CDU, replaces Olaf Scholz of the SPD, whose coalition government with the Greens and FDP collapsed six months prior.

This transition marks an unprecedentedly shaky beginning for a German chancellorship. Merz secured the position only in a second round of voting. His initial attempt in the Bundestag failed, falling six votes short of the required majority. This indicates that at least 18 members of the Union and SPD coalition factions withheld their support for the CDU leader.

The immediate reaction to Merz’s eventual success was relief, not unadulterated joy. As Bundestag President Julia Klöckner announced the results of the hard-fought second ballot, the 69-year-old’s expression reflected the arduous nature of his victory. This time, he prevailed with a margin of nine votes, although even then, not all 328 votes from the Union and SPD were cast in his favor.

Despite achieving the chancellorship, a significant sense of bitterness will likely linger for Merz as he reflects on what should have been the crowning achievement of his political career. The events surrounding his election cast a long shadow over the start of his tenure.

The expectations for the new German government are immense, both domestically and, especially in the current global climate, internationally. Within Germany, the primary hope is for a revitalization of the country’s struggling economy. This requires the swift approval of a budget.

Merz embarks on these tasks from a position of weakness. Will he be forced to constantly worry about securing majorities in every vote? The answer is likely no. Only votes regarding individuals are conducted in secret; substantive issues are decided in the Bundestag through open votes, either by hand or by name. This eliminates the possibility of anonymous dissenters. Those who have concerns about Merz or the coalition will be compelled to voice them openly.

Internationally, while Merz’s rocky start might be noticed, it will likely be quickly dismissed. Allies within the EU are eagerly awaiting Germany, as Europe’s largest economy and most populous nation, to become fully functional again. This is particularly critical given the radical shifts in US foreign policy under President Donald Trump, the threat posed by Russia, and the economic competition from China.

Merz is no stranger to setbacks. After Angela Merkel’s rise to power, he left politics out of frustration, as he saw no path for advancement under her leadership. His comeback to the party leadership came only on his third attempt, after losing two previous leadership contests. However, he has consistently demonstrated resilience and has now finally reached the chancellorship.

The Union and SPD have ambitious plans and are eager to begin working. Outgoing Chancellor Scholz intends to transfer his official duties to Merz this evening. Similar transitions are planned in some ministries, while others will occur tomorrow morning. The first cabinet meeting is scheduled for late this evening. The initial decision is expected to be the elimination of special envoys and coordinators, as promised in the coalition agreement, signaling a commitment to reducing bureaucracy.

However, the underlying question remains: Why did the start go so wrong? The Union and SPD had anticipated full support for Merz before the session. The SPD immediately asserted that it was not responsible for the debacle. "You can count on us," declared the designated Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, according to sources within the parliamentary group. However, the vote was secret, making it impossible to verify voting behavior.

CSU leader Markus Söder urged the members of the Union and SPD to refrain from political games, settling scores, or sending messages at this critical time. He emphasized that the election of the Chancellor is not just about an individual but about an entire government.

Merz had also provoked considerable frustration within the ranks of the Union when, just days after the federal election, he proposed relaxing the debt brake to accommodate defense spending. This contradicted the impression conveyed by his party during the election campaign that it firmly supported the debt brake.

Since then, Merz’s popularity ratings have declined in opinion polls, voters feel deceived, and some members of the parliamentary group have expressed their displeasure. The 69-year-old himself acknowledged publicly: "I know that I have now used a very high credit, also in terms of my personal credibility." As Chancellor, he must now repay that credit. The path ahead for Merz requires mending the deep rifts that have opened up within his own party, convincing a skeptical electorate that he is capable of leading, and projecting an image of stability and strength to a world facing unprecedented challenges. The shaky foundation of his chancellorship necessitates a swift and decisive demonstration of leadership.