March Madness Disappoints Early, But Potential Upsets Loom in Second Round

The early stages of the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament have been, to put it mildly, uncharacteristic. The thrilling unpredictability, nail-biting finishes, and shocking upsets that define "March Madness" have been largely absent, leaving fans somewhat underwhelmed after the first round of games. While Alabama State’s buzzer-beating victory over Saint Francis provided an initial spark, it proved to be an isolated incident in a sea of relatively uneventful contests.

The lack of dramatic finishes was particularly noticeable. Out of the first 32 games, a mere four were decided by a margin of three points or fewer. Even one of those close calls, McNeese’s narrow win over Clemson, was rendered less thrilling by a meaningless basket at the buzzer. Several teams had opportunities to tie games in the dying seconds – UC San Diego against Michigan, Vanderbilt against Saint Mary’s, and Mississippi State against Baylor – but none managed to capitalize, further dampening the excitement.

However, the most glaring deficiency in the first round was the dearth of significant upsets. The top four seeds all successfully navigated their opening matchups and advanced to the second round. What’s more, these victories were not hard-fought battles; they were dominant displays of strength, with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points per game. Only three teams managed to win games as seeds at least five spots lower than their opponents. One of those involved a No. 12 seed, Colorado State, defeating a No. 5 seed, Memphis, but even that game was considered less of an upset as Colorado State was actually the betting favorite.

The collective absence of close games, thrilling finishes, and shocking upsets left many wondering if the tournament’s signature "madness" had been lost entirely. However, hope remains that the second round will deliver the excitement that was so conspicuously missing in the first. Saturday’s slate of games presents several intriguing matchups with the potential for significant upsets, offering fans a chance to finally witness the unpredictable drama they’ve been craving.

Here’s a breakdown of some potential upsets to watch for in Saturday’s second-round games, excluding matchups where the seed difference is less than four:

Drake Bulldogs (No. 8) vs. Houston Cougars (No. 1)

The Drake Bulldogs, led by Coach Ben McCollum and standout guard Bennett Stirtz, are coming off an impressive 67-57 victory over Missouri, a game in which they controlled the tempo and dominated from start to finish. However, they now face a much tougher challenge in the top-seeded Houston Cougars.

All-American JT Toppin and the Texas Tech Red Raiders will pose a significant threat, especially to Drake’s stout defense, which will need to be at its best to contain the nation’s fifth-most efficient offensive team, according to KenPom. While Texas Tech is formidable, they lack the overwhelming size that can often spell doom for mid-major teams like Drake. The Red Raiders’ tallest rotation player is 6-foot-9, which could give Drake an advantage in the paint.

Many believe Drake was severely underseeded by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Despite ranking in the top 10 in both the NET rankings and on KenPom, the Bulldogs received only an No. 8 seed. This tougher path makes the Bulldogs more dangerous to top seeded teams.

Houston, a 5.5-point favorite according to BetMGM, despite the seven-seed difference, will face a well-rounded Gonzaga team, with five players averaging at least 10 points per game. The Bulldogs’ offensive balance could stretch Houston’s defense, which is considered one of the best and most relentless in the country. Gonzaga is also no stranger to success in the tournament, as they aim for their 10th consecutive Sweet 16 appearance.

Arkansas Razorbacks (No. 10) vs. St. John’s (No. 2)

John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks, a No. 10 seed, possess a wealth of talent. Their roster features five former top-100 recruits and several highly sought-after players from the transfer portal, including guard Johnell Davis and forward Jonas Aidoo. After a slow start in SEC play, the Razorbacks have turned things around, going 9-5 since the beginning of February, with seven of those wins coming against NCAA Tournament teams.

While Arkansas will be without injured leading scorer Adou Thiero, St. John’s, despite its success this season, is not invincible. History suggests that teams like St. John’s, who started the season unranked but entered the tournament ranked in the top 10 nationally, often struggle to make deep runs. Of the 24 No. 2 seeds in NCAA Tournament history that fit this profile, 15 failed to reach the Sweet 16. This year, St. John’s joins Michigan State in that potentially vulnerable category.