The Clock Strikes Midnight: Where Are the Cinderellas of March Madness?

The ballgown was on, the carriage and horses were ready and waiting. Colorado State, like many mid-major programs across the country, was poised for its Cinderella moment, a chance to capture the nation’s attention and etch their name into March Madness lore. The Rams, brimming with potential and surrounded by pre-tournament buzz, envisioned themselves as the life of the ball, ready to reap the rewards of a deep tournament run.

Instead, the clock struck midnight. The Rams, along with every other bracket-busting hopeful, watched their fairy tale ending vanish as the proverbial glass slipper shattered. This year’s edition of March Madness, for all its chaotic reputation, has been surprisingly devoid of the upsets and Cinderella stories that typically define the tournament’s most memorable moments.

Yes, there have been a handful of eyebrow-raising results, such as No. 10 Arkansas’s victory over No. 2 St. Johns and No. 6 Mississippi’s dominant performance against No. 3 Iowa State. But as the second round concluded and the remaining 16 teams prepared for the Sweet Sixteen, it became glaringly apparent that the Big Dance would proceed without an unexpected appearance from a team blessed by a fairy godmother.

For the first time since 2007, the Sweet Sixteen will feature no team seeded No. 11 or higher. The absence of a true Cinderella story represents a significant departure from the norm, considering how frequently these underdog runs have occurred in recent years. Multiple years have seen at least two teams seeded No. 11 or lower advance to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2021 and 2022, a remarkable four teams seeded that low managed to make a deep tournament impact. Last year, NC State was the lone representative, riding an improbable wave all the way to the Final Four.

This year, the trend bucked hard. Heading into the second round, the odds of a Cinderella emerging were already slim. Colorado State, Drake, and McNeese were the only teams that had pulled off significant first-round upsets, carrying the hopes of mid-major enthusiasts on their shoulders.

On Saturday, McNeese was overwhelmed by Purdue from the opening tip, suffering a decisive 14-point defeat. Texas Tech proved too formidable for Drake, resulting in a 13-point loss for the Bulldogs. Colorado State remained the last hope for a Cinderella run, and they nearly pulled it off, fueled by a late 3-pointer. However, Maryland’s Derik Queen delivered a heartbreaking buzzer-beater, sending Colorado State home and effectively sealing the fate of this year’s Cinderella drought.

This year’s Sweet Sixteen will exclusively feature teams from major conferences, a statistical anomaly not seen since the round was established in 1975, according to OptaStats. Only the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC will be represented. This unprecedented level of dominance by the power conferences marks a stark contrast to previous years, where the Sweet Sixteen typically included teams from at least seven different conferences.

While there is no single definitive answer to explain this phenomenon, several factors may contribute to the absence of Cinderella runs this season.

Firstly, it’s essential to acknowledge that the top teams this season are genuinely exceptional. All of the No. 1 seeds entered the tournament with no more than five losses, and none of the top 10 overall seeds had double-digit losses.

Led by the SEC powerhouses, there has been a clear distinction between the "good" and "elite" teams this season, and those at the top have consistently demonstrated their superiority throughout the tournament. Statistical metrics, such as KenPom rankings, support this observation, with the top eight teams in the KenPom rankings all still alive in the tournament. Even Arkansas, with their No. 36 KenPom ranking, is hardly a traditional Cinderella, given the talent required to navigate the rigorous SEC schedule.

While these elite teams have faced stiff competition from mid-major programs that dominated their respective conferences and possessed all the characteristics of potential Cinderella stories, their bids ultimately fell short. UC San Diego nearly completed a remarkable comeback against Michigan, High Point struggled to keep pace with Purdue, and Liberty and Akron were thoroughly outmatched in their opening matchups. These teams, despite their potential, were unable to capture their "one shining moment."

So, could there be underlying issues at the mid-major level contributing to this trend? It’s a possibility worth considering.

A closer look at the remaining teams reveals rosters heavily populated with transfers. Key contributors often come from other prominent programs, but a significant number also arrive from mid-major schools, seeking a larger platform to showcase their talents – and perhaps capitalize on NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) opportunities.

In today’s college basketball landscape, roster continuity is a rare commodity at all levels, but its absence is particularly detrimental to the chances of mid-major teams embarking on deep tournament runs. Historically, Cinderella teams have often been built around players who have spent years together, developing strong chemistry and building towards that elusive tournament moment.

"I think what’s changed in college basketball is there’s not as many old mid-major teams as there used to be," said Colorado State head coach Niko Medved. "There’s not as much of that because older guys who played together are pretty good."

The absence of Cinderella runs has implications for the ongoing debate about expanding the NCAA Tournament field. The argument for expansion often hinges on the idea of providing more opportunities for smaller schools to compete and potentially pull off upsets. However, if these teams are consistently getting overwhelmed by the top programs, the rationale for adding more teams to the field becomes less compelling. Furthermore, the casual fans who fill out brackets and tune in to witness those unexpected upsets may lose interest if the tournament becomes too predictable.

Despite the lack of Cinderella stories, this year’s Sweet Sixteen promises to deliver an elite level of basketball. In the Midwest Region, the top four seeds remain, and with the exception of Arkansas, all remaining teams are seeded No. 6 or better. The remaining 15 games of the college basketball season are poised to be heavyweight battles, each carrying a "must-watch" label.

However, it will be without the unpredictable magic that makes March Madness the spectacle that it is. The hope is that this year’s absence of Cinderella runs is merely an anomaly and not a sign of a long-term trend.

"Sometimes, it’s just the way the year goes," Medved concluded. Whether this is a temporary blip or a harbinger of a more predictable future remains to be seen.