March Madness Bubble Watch: Conference Tournaments Intensify Tournament Hopes
The college basketball season has reached its critical juncture. For teams teetering on the edge of the NCAA Tournament bracket, the conference tournaments represent a final opportunity to sway the selection committee, acting as a jury deliberating their fate. These are the closing arguments, the last chance to impress and secure a coveted spot in March Madness.
Teams already projected within the tournament field are fighting to maintain their position, while those on the outside looking in need to deliver truly exceptional performances to force their way into the bracket. Every game from now until Selection Sunday holds immense weight, potentially making or breaking tournament aspirations.
Several teams hovering near the bubble in the USA TODAY Sports Bracketology began their conference tournament journeys on Wednesday, with the remainder joining the fray on Thursday. The outcomes of these games will directly influence their tournament outlook.
This article provides a tracker of key bubble teams and analyzes how their results impact their chances of hearing their names called on Selection Sunday.
Bracketology Landscape: The race for No. 1 seeds is intensifying, while the battle for bubble spots is becoming increasingly fierce.
Tournament Previews: In-depth looks at the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, and Big East tournaments.
Bubble Teams Under the Microscope:
Ohio State’s Disappointing End: After spending much of the season dancing on the cutline, Ohio State’s tournament hopes have likely been extinguished following an opening-round loss to Iowa in the Big Ten tournament. Despite a hard-fought, back-and-forth contest, late-game mistakes proved costly, allowing the Hawkeyes to surge ahead with a decisive 7-0 run.
Entering the week on the fringes of the First Four conversation, the Buckeyes desperately needed a win to solidify their position. Instead, they suffered a Quad 2 loss, a significant blemish on their resume, especially during conference tournament play.
While their 17-15 record is far from stellar, history shows that teams with 15 losses have made the tournament before, as recently as Florida in 2019. Ohio State’s saving grace had been its relatively strong No. 37 NET ranking. However, concluding the season with a Quad 2 loss, resulting in a losing record in both Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, will likely prove to be their undoing. Expect the Buckeyes to be among the teams left out of the bracket on Sunday.
Arkansas Survives a Scare: Arkansas fans endured a tense second half against South Carolina, barely escaping a Gamecocks comeback that could have jeopardized their tournament aspirations. Fueled by a recent loss to South Carolina, Arkansas started strong, determined to avoid a repeat. They closed the first half on an impressive 11-0 run, establishing a 17-point halftime lead and extending it to 20 points early in the second half.
However, South Carolina, despite its conference-worst record, refused to surrender. They mounted a furious 12-0 run in a five-minute span, narrowing the deficit to a single point and injecting considerable stress into the Arkansas camp. Fortunately, the Razorbacks managed to regain their composure and secure a narrow 72-68 victory.
Arkansas was not firmly on the bubble entering this week, holding a No. 10 seed after a strong regular season finish. However, their tournament spot was not entirely secure. Another loss to South Carolina and a quick exit from the SEC tournament would have been disastrous. This win, however, solidifies their position and virtually guarantees them a spot in the tournament.
Texas Keeps Hopes Alive: As a team considered to be among the "first four out," Texas needed a victory against Vanderbilt in the first round of the SEC tournament to maintain any hope of making the NCAA Tournament field. The Longhorns played with intensity from the opening tip, propelling them to a 77-72 win over the Commodores.
Vanderbilt, known for its potent scoring offense, struggled to find its rhythm in the first half, while Texas dominated the post and controlled the boards. Texas built an 18-point lead with nine minutes remaining and managed to hold on for the win.
This victory keeps the Longhorns’ tournament hopes alive and provides them with a valuable sixth Quad 1 win. A significant opportunity awaits them in the second round against Texas A&M. Texas has defeated the Aggies before, and a second victory against their rival could be enough to salvage their season.
North Carolina Takes Step One: North Carolina requires a miraculous run in the ACC tournament to have any chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They took the first step with a comfortable victory over Notre Dame. The Tar Heels never trailed, maintaining a double-digit lead throughout the contest, reaching a maximum lead of 24 points.
As a team considered to be among the "first four out," the win over the Fighting Irish will not significantly boost their resume, but it was essential to keep the door open. They must defeat Wake Forest on Thursday, and a potential semifinal matchup against Duke on Friday will likely determine their fate.
West Virginia Stumbles Badly: What began as a surprising and successful season for West Virginia took a turn for the worse with a loss to Big 12 bottom-dweller Colorado in the second round. The Mountaineers controlled much of the first half, but turnovers plagued them in the second half, allowing the Buffaloes to embark on a decisive 15-0 run and secure a 67-60 victory.
This is a devastating loss for West Virginia, likely causing them to fall to a double-digit seed in the tournament and bringing them dangerously close to the bubble. The loss to Colorado is a Quad 2 defeat, and their record in Quad 1 and 2 games now stands at 10-13. While West Virginia is still likely to make the tournament, depending on the results of other bubble teams, they could end up as a No. 11 seed due to Wednesday’s disastrous performance.
