March Madness Bracketology: Risers and Fallers Before Conference Tournaments

Selection Sunday is looming just around the corner, and the landscape of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket is rapidly evolving. The regular season’s final stretch has been a rollercoaster, with some teams solidifying their positions and others faltering at the worst possible moment. The importance of finishing strong cannot be overstated. For teams on the bubble, late-season surges have provided crucial boosts to their tournament hopes. Meanwhile, those already considered locks for the tournament have been jockeying for the best possible seed, aiming to secure favorable matchups and potential home-court advantage in the early rounds.

Conversely, several teams that once appeared destined for a top-16 overall seed have experienced significant slides due to late-season struggles. These stumbles have jeopardized their chances of hosting games in the opening rounds and have potentially set them up for tougher paths through the tournament bracket.

Conference tournaments represent the final opportunity for teams to bolster their resumes and make a lasting impression on the selection committee. With most of the major tournaments set to tip-off, here’s a look at the teams that are trending upwards and those whose stock is falling, according to the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology projections for the field of 68.

Rising Programs

Texas Tech Red Raiders (Projected Seed: No. 2)

The Red Raiders have surged to a No. 2 seed projection after a dominant close to the regular season. A pivotal moment came when they stormed into Allen Fieldhouse and secured a hard-fought victory against a desperate Kansas team, marking only their second-ever road win against the Jayhawks. Following that impressive win, Texas Tech handled their business against Colorado and Arizona State, securing a second-place finish in the Big 12 Conference. Their resume is undeniably strong, highlighted by an impressive No. 7 ranking in the NET and eight Quad 1 wins, the second-most in the Big 12. The upcoming conference tournament presents a prime opportunity for the Red Raiders to solidify their case for a coveted No. 2 seed. Winning the tournament title could potentially position them to play close to home throughout the NCAA Tournament, a significant advantage.

BYU Cougars (Projected Seed: No. 5)

Few teams have enjoyed a more dramatic turnaround than the Cougars in the past month. On February 11th, they were projected to miss the tournament altogether. Since then, they have been on an absolute tear, rattling off eight consecutive wins to close out the regular season. What’s even more impressive is that five of those victories were against Quad 1 opponents, showcasing their ability to compete against top-tier competition. With a high seed now seemingly secured, BYU has emerged as a legitimate top-16 contender. As the No. 4 seed in the Big 12 tournament, they could face a potential semifinal matchup against Houston, another marquee opponent. A victory in that game would provide another significant boost to what has already been an exceptional month in Provo.

Illinois Fighting Illini (Projected Seed: No. 6)

Once considered a potential double-digit seed, Illinois has rediscovered its rhythm and is now poised to not only make the tournament field but also secure a much more favorable matchup in the first round. A lopsided loss to Duke appears to have ignited a fire within the Illini, as they responded with three consecutive victories. These wins included a dominant performance on the road against Michigan and a come-from-behind victory over Purdue, capped off by a 16-3 run to close out the game. The Fighting Illini boast a strong NET ranking (No. 15) and an impressive eight Quad 1 wins. They appear to be playing their best basketball at the right time and pose a serious threat in the Big Ten tournament.

Arkansas Razorbacks (Projected Seed: No. 10)

Credit to Arkansas for their resilience after a tough loss to South Carolina last weekend. The Razorbacks bounced back strong with a road win against a surging Vanderbilt team, followed by a thrilling victory against Mississippi State. These wins, a Quad 1 and Quad 2 victory respectively, have moved Arkansas away from the bubble and have instilled confidence in their tournament chances. As the ninth seed in the SEC tournament, the Razorbacks will face South Carolina in the opening round. A revenge victory in that game should solidify their spot in the field and allow them to climb even higher with further wins in Nashville.

Oklahoma Sooners (Projected Seed: No. 11)

After enduring a rough patch of six losses in their last seven games, Oklahoma has found new life at the perfect time. The Sooners capped off the regular season with two crucial victories, beating Missouri and then going on the road to defeat rival Texas. Oklahoma is now back in the projected tournament field. While their position isn’t entirely secure yet, they carry significant momentum into the SEC tournament as the No. 14 seed. Their first-round matchup against Georgia is critical for ensuring they stay within the bracket.

Falling Programs

Arizona Wildcats (Projected Seed: No. 5)

The Wildcats enjoyed a strong start to their inaugural season in the Big 12, but the gauntlet of the conference schedule and inconsistent play have pushed Arizona out of the top 16. While they didn’t suffer any truly devastating losses, their 3-5 record down the stretch suggests they aren’t quite at the elite tier of championship contenders. When you combine their recent struggles with their dreadful start to the season, it becomes difficult to justify a No. 4 seed for an 11-loss team. However, the Wildcats have an opportunity to bolster their resume as the No. 3 seed in the Big 12 tournament.

Michigan Wolverines (Projected Seed: No. 6)

The honeymoon period following the hiring of Dusty May in Ann Arbor has come to an end after a difficult finish to the regular season. Michigan was soundly beaten in its last three games, suffering lopsided losses to Illinois and Maryland at home, as well as being thoroughly outplayed by Michigan State in the regular-season finale. Their 9-7 Quad 1 record is still significant, but the Wolverines were hoping to secure a 10th win to improve their standing. Instead, they put forth a poor performance. As a result, they have fallen from the No. 3 seed projection they held three weeks ago. Michigan cannot afford a one-and-done appearance in the conference tournament if they hope to climb back up the seed lines.

Missouri Tigers (Projected Seed: No. 6)

After defeating Alabama a few weeks ago, Missouri had a legitimate case to be considered a top-16 team with a 6-6 Quad 1 record. However, the Tigers stumbled down the stretch, losing four of their last five games and failing to add another signature win. Kentucky controlled much of their Saturday contest in Columbia, highlighting the growing defensive concerns for Dennis Gates’ team, which has allowed at least 90 points in its last four losses. Missouri receives a first-round bye in the SEC tournament, but they must demonstrate a greater effort in stopping opponents from scoring at will.

Marquette Golden Eagles (Projected Seed: No. 7)

The opportunities were there for Marquette, but they failed to capitalize and demonstrate their ability to beat quality teams, resulting in a significant drop in their seed projection. While their overall record remains solid, the Golden Eagles went 2-6 against the top four teams in the Big East, culminating in a heartbreaking loss to St. Johns on Saturday. Marquette lost its last five Quad 1 chances, finished the season with a 4-6 record in their last ten games, and needs a strong showing in the Big East tournament to salvage their seeding. It’s been a disappointing past month, considering they were projected as a No. 2 seed at the end of January.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams (Projected Seed: No. 11)

It’s now likely that VCU must win the Atlantic 10 tournament title to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament, as an at-large bid appears to be off the table despite their impressive 25 wins. The Rams nearly pulled off a stunning last-second comeback against Dayton in the regular-season finale, but the loss to the Flyers significantly reduced their margin for error. With only three Quad 1 games on their resume, VCU lacks the schedule strength to absorb another loss, despite holding a NET ranking of 31.