March Madness Mayhem: Upset Alert in the 2025 NCAA Tournament’s First Round

The echoes of bracket-busting upsets already reverberate through the hallowed halls of college basketball as the 2025 NCAA Tournament kicks into high gear. The second full day of men’s March Madness, a Friday brimming with promise and peril, is poised to deliver even more dramatic twists and turns. While the return of Duke’s sensational freshman, Cooper Flagg, from injury undoubtedly casts a long shadow over the proceedings, alongside the highly anticipated first-round matchups featuring Final Four contenders like top-seeded Florida, second-seeded Alabama, and second-seeded Michigan State, the true allure of this year’s tournament lies in the potential for shocking upsets, unexpected bracket busters, and the emergence of Cinderella stories that will capture the nation’s imagination.

Indeed, the anticipation is palpable. Of the sixteen tantalizing first-round games scheduled for Friday, ESPN’s matchup predictor flags a staggering seven contests where the underdog boasts at least a 30% chance of victory. This statistic alone is enough to send chills down the spines of chalk enthusiasts and breathe hope into the hearts of those daring to dream of a perfect bracket, or at least one that survives past the opening weekend.

So, who are the prime candidates to orchestrate these monumental upsets, to defy the odds, and send seismic ripples through the tournament landscape? Let’s delve into the most compelling potential bracket busters as the first round of March Madness draws to a close:

Colorado State Rams vs. Memphis Tigers: The Colorado State Rams entered the tournament as slight favorites over the Memphis Tigers, a position further solidified by the unfortunate news of guard Tyrese Hunter’s diminished availability for the Tigers. The Rams, riding a wave of momentum after a dominant 10-game winning streak culminating in a Mountain West Conference tournament championship, are one of the hottest teams in the nation. Their recent form and conference dominance suggest they possess the firepower and composure needed to navigate the pressure cooker of March Madness. Memphis, on the other hand, hasn’t faced a team of Colorado State’s caliber since December, raising questions about their preparedness for this crucial encounter. While Memphis boasts All-American PJ Haggerty, a player capable of single-handedly taking over a game offensively, Colorado State counters with their own star in Nique Clifford, creating a tantalizing matchup of individual brilliance. This game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair decided in the final moments, making it a prime candidate for an upset special.

UNC Tar Heels vs. Ole Miss Rebels: The UNC Tar Heels, initially deemed the most controversial inclusion in the 2025 NCAA Tournament field, have swiftly transformed into a popular pick to make a deep run in the South Region bracket. The Tar Heels are favored to overcome the Ole Miss Rebels, buoyed by their impressive recent form, losing only twice to Duke over the past month. Ole Miss, conversely, limps into the tournament after a dismal stretch, losing five of their last eight games in the highly competitive SEC. While UNC coach Hubert Davis boasts an impressive 8-2 record in NCAA Tournament games, this contest against Ole Miss would represent their most significant victory of the season based on KenPom ratings. However, Ole Miss has a trump card up their sleeve: five wins against teams ranked higher than UNC in the same metric. This clash pits tournament experience against the raw potential of a team eager to prove its worth, setting the stage for a potentially thrilling upset.

Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: This matchup represents a trendy upset pick, fueled by the widespread belief that the SEC’s record-breaking 14 NCAA Tournament berths are a testament to its overall strength and dominance this season. Despite finishing 11th in the conference standings, the Vanderbilt Commodores have demonstrated their ability to compete with the best, securing impressive wins over top-four seeds like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas A&M. The Saint Mary’s Gaels, on the other hand, have a history of early exits in the NCAA Tournament, failing to advance past the first round in six of their ten appearances since 2005, including a disappointing loss last year. Vanderbilt’s SEC pedigree and history of upsetting top teams make them a dangerous opponent capable of exploiting Saint Mary’s tournament vulnerabilities.

Marquette Golden Eagles vs. New Mexico Lobos: This game features a fascinating narrative twist, with New Mexico coach Richard Pitino facing the same team his father, St. John’s coach Rick Pitino, defeated three times this season in Big East play. This unique insight could provide New Mexico with a valuable edge. Marquette, led by experienced guards Kam Jones and Stevie Mitchell, has shown flashes of brilliance but has also struggled with consistency, going just 8-8 over their last 16 games. New Mexico thrives on playing at a breakneck pace, one of the fastest in the country, and boasts seven victories over teams already in the NCAA Tournament field. This clash of styles, coupled with the potential for insider knowledge, makes New Mexico a compelling upset candidate.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Xavier Musketeers: After Xavier’s dramatic comeback victory over Texas in a play-in game, ESPN gives the Musketeers a nearly 40% chance of advancing again when they face the Fighting Illini. This optimistic outlook is likely driven by the stark contrast in experience between the two teams. Coach Sean Miller’s Xavier squad has won eight of its last nine games after a shaky start to the season, fueled by one of the most experienced rosters in the nation, anchored by the veteran leadership of Zach Freemantle. Illinois, in contrast, relies heavily on youth, with two freshmen and a sophomore leading their scoring efforts. Xavier’s experience and recent momentum could prove to be the difference in a high-pressure tournament setting, potentially leading to another upset victory.

The stage is set. The players are ready. The brackets are… already starting to crumble for some. Friday’s slate of first-round games promises a whirlwind of excitement, drama, and unexpected results as the 2025 NCAA Tournament delivers on its annual promise of March Madness. Keep your eyes peeled for these potential upsets, because in a tournament where anything can happen, predicting the unpredictable is half the fun.