Villeneuve-Saint-Georges Mayoral By-Election: A Shift in the Political Landscape
On February 2, Les Républicains (LR) candidate Kristell Niasme emerged victorious in the Villeneuve-Saint-Georges (Val-de-Marne) mayoral by-election, securing 49% of the vote in the second round. Her victory came amidst a three-way race against La France Insoumise (LFI) deputy Louis Boyard (38.75%) and outgoing mayor Philippe Gaudin (12.25%).
First Round Dynamics
In the first round, Boyard had taken the lead with 24.89% of the vote, slightly ahead of Niasme’s 22.70%. Notably, the combined vote share of left-wing candidates stood at 45.59%, putting them in a seemingly advantageous position.
Second Round Realignment
However, the second round results revealed a significant shift in voter preferences. Boyard lost nearly 7 percentage points in the runoff, indicating poor vote retention among his initial supporters. Interestingly, Boyard’s 1,897 votes in the second round were almost identical to the combined 1,916 votes received by the two left-wing lists in the first round.
In contrast, Niasme gained a substantial 1,445 new votes. This increase roughly corresponds to the combined total of 572 votes for UDI candidate Éric Colson and the 791 additional voters who turned out for the second round.
Mobilization of the Right
The second round results suggest a significant mobilization of voters on the right. Niasme appears to have captured the votes of Colson’s UDI base and attracted a substantial number of new voters. This shift may have been influenced by the decision of outgoing mayor Gaudin, a member of the center-right, to remain in the race, potentially splitting the vote on the right.
Analysis of Vote Transfer
A closer analysis reveals that Niasme received around 60% of Colson’s first-round voters, while Boyard gained only 20%. This suggests a significant swing towards the LR candidate among voters who had initially supported a different right-wing party.
Implications for the Political Landscape
Niasme’s victory marks a significant shift in the political landscape of Villeneuve-Saint-Georges. The triumph of the center-right coalition signals a departure from the left-wing dominance that has characterized the town’s recent electoral history. It also suggests that the right has effectively harnessed the discontent of voters with the incumbent mayor’s performance.
Meanwhile, Boyard’s defeat highlights the challenges facing LFI in translating its strong performance in national elections to the local level. The party’s inability to retain its first-round voters in the runoff raises questions about its grassroots organization and campaign strategy.
The Villeneuve-Saint-Georges by-election serves as a reminder of the fluid and unpredictable nature of French politics at the local level. The results demonstrate the importance of candidate dynamics, electoral strategies, and vote transfer patterns in shaping the outcome of municipal elections.
