Surge in Estimated Illegal Immigrant Population Fuels Immigration Debate

A new report by the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), a group advocating for reduced immigration levels, estimates that the number of illegal immigrants residing in the United States has surged to over 18 million. This figure, projected for March 2025, marks a significant increase and has reignited the debate surrounding immigration policies and border security.

FAIR’s report attributes this surge primarily to policies enacted during the Biden administration, particularly concerning border management and the use of humanitarian parole. The organization argues that these policies have incentivized illegal immigration and contributed to the rapid growth of the undocumented population.

The report estimates the current number of illegal immigrants at 18.6 million, an 11% increase from FAIR’s June 2023 estimate of 16.8 million. Overall, the group claims the illegal immigrant population has grown by 4.1 million, or 28.2%, since December 2020. These figures have prompted strong reactions from both sides of the immigration debate.

FAIR contends that this population growth strains resources and negatively impacts American society. The organization emphasizes that nearly all American population growth is attributable to high levels of immigration, both legal and illegal. FAIR also notes that in 2013, they estimated the number of illegal immigrants to be around 11.7 million, highlighting a substantial increase over the past decade.

The methodology used in the report involves utilizing Census data and adjusting for what FAIR believes is a consistent undercounting of the illegal immigrant population. The group estimates an undercount of approximately 40%. However, FAIR acknowledges the inherent challenges in accurately estimating the size and characteristics of this population, admitting that it is "an inexact science." The report states that accurately quantifying border crossings, overstays, and "gotaways" is impossible, and estimates are based on annual and monthly census data.

One of the key points of contention in the report revolves around the definition of an "illegal immigrant." FAIR defines this as anyone lacking legal status, such as a visa or permanent residency. Critically, this definition includes individuals granted "lawful presence" through programs like Temporary Protected Status (TPS) or humanitarian parole, even if they lack legal status under immigration law.

The Biden administration expanded the use of humanitarian parole to manage the influx of migrants at the border. This included allowing migrants to cross the border after scheduling appointments through the CBP One app and establishing parole programs that allowed migrants to fly into the country after obtaining travel authorization. FAIR argues that these individuals, while described as having a "lawful presence," lack true legal status and should not be counted as legally residing in the country. FAIR argues that counting them as ‘legal immigrants’ or ‘lawful residents’ would be both incorrect and a biased mischaracterization of immigration law.

FAIR’s report claims that Biden-era policies, including the release of migrants into the U.S. and the "abuse" of parole authority, significantly contributed to the surge in illegal immigration.

The Trump administration, upon taking office, swiftly reversed several Biden-era immigration policies. These reversals included ending the parole programs and halting the use of the CBP One app. The administration also initiated a mass deportation campaign within the country and deployed military personnel to the border while declaring a national emergency.

The Trump administration has touted a significant decrease in border encounters following these policy changes. In February, there were 8,326 southern border encounters, a stark contrast to the 189,913 encounters recorded in February 2024. The administration claims to have removed over 55,000 illegal immigrants from the U.S.

President Trump, addressing the situation, stated, "Within hours of taking the oath of office, I declared a national emergency on our southern border and I deployed the U.S. military and Border Patrol to repel the invasion of our country. And what a job they’ve done. As a result, illegal border crossings last month were by far the lowest ever recorded, ever. They heard my words, and they chose not to come."

The debate surrounding immigration remains highly charged. Advocates for stricter immigration control, such as FAIR, emphasize the need for secure borders and reduced immigration levels to protect national security, preserve resources, and maintain cultural identity. They point to the estimated increase in the illegal immigrant population as evidence of failed policies and the urgent need for reform.

Conversely, advocates for more lenient immigration policies highlight the economic contributions of immigrants, the humanitarian need to provide refuge for asylum seekers, and the potential for comprehensive immigration reform to address the challenges of the current system. They criticize policies like mass deportations and border militarization as inhumane and ineffective.

The release of FAIR’s report has undoubtedly intensified this debate, providing ammunition for both sides. The accuracy of the report’s estimates and the interpretation of its findings are likely to be hotly contested in the coming months. This complex issue continues to shape political discourse and policy decisions, impacting communities and individuals across the nation. It raises fundamental questions about national identity, economic opportunity, and humanitarian responsibility.

The discussion around immigration policy inevitably touches on economic impacts, social integration, and ethical considerations. The complexities and interconnectedness of these factors make it difficult to achieve universally accepted solutions. As the nation grapples with evolving immigration patterns, the debate is certain to continue to be a defining issue of American society.