Yemen’s Houthis and the US Ceasefire: A Complex Agreement with Lingering Concerns
A recently brokered ceasefire between Yemen’s Houthi rebels and the United States has brought a temporary halt to US bombing campaigns in Yemen, raising hopes for de-escalation in the war-torn nation. However, the agreement’s limitations, particularly regarding Israel, suggest that the disruptions to global shipping and the broader regional tensions are far from over.
The announcement of the ceasefire came from then-President Donald Trump, who stated that the US would cease its bombing campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis, citing an agreement where the group would refrain from attacking US ships. Oman reportedly played a mediating role in securing this deal. While the agreement has seemingly held, with no reported Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea since January, the fine print reveals a more nuanced picture.
Mohammed Abdulsalam, the chief Houthi negotiator, explicitly stated that the ceasefire deal does not include any guarantees regarding Israel. "The agreement does not include Israel in any way, shape or form," Abdulsalam emphasized. He further clarified that the Houthis’ cessation of attacks on US vessels was contingent on the US upholding its commitment to stop bombing Houthi targets. "As long as they announced the cessation (of U.S. strikes) and they are actually committed to that, our position was self-defence so we will stop," he stated.
This statement raises serious concerns about the continued vulnerability of Israel-linked vessels in the Red Sea and surrounding waters. While the Houthis may refrain from directly targeting US assets, their stance on Israel remains unchanged, leaving open the possibility of further attacks on shipping and potentially other targets perceived as connected to Israel. This ambiguity undermines the overall stability of the region and casts a shadow over the potential for a lasting peace.
The Houthis’ involvement in the conflict stems from the ongoing Gaza war. Since Israel initiated its military offensive against Hamas in Gaza following the militant group’s deadly attack on October 7, 2023, the Houthis have launched attacks on Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea. They view their actions as a form of solidarity with the Palestinians and as a means of pressuring Israel to end its military operations in Gaza.
The US military has been heavily involved in countering Houthi attacks on shipping. Under the banner of "Operation Rough Rider," the US military claims to have struck over 1,000 targets in Yemen since March 15. The US military reports that these strikes have resulted in the deaths of "hundreds of Houthi fighters and numerous Houthi leaders."
However, the US military campaign has drawn criticism from human rights activists, who have raised concerns about civilian casualties. The complexities of operating in a densely populated area like Yemen make it difficult to avoid unintended harm to civilians, and the human cost of the conflict has been a source of ongoing controversy.
Furthermore, tensions between the Houthis and Israel have escalated in recent weeks. A Houthi missile landed near Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah port. The Israeli military also carried out an airstrike on Yemen’s main airport in Sanaa. These retaliatory strikes highlight the volatile nature of the conflict and the potential for further escalation.
Under former President Joe Biden’s administration, the US and Britain launched air strikes against Houthi targets in an effort to safeguard the crucial Red Sea trading route. This waterway is vital for global commerce, facilitating the passage of approximately 15% of global shipping traffic. Disruptions to this route have significant economic consequences, impacting supply chains and driving up costs for businesses and consumers worldwide.
Trump significantly intensified air strikes against the Houthis after he became US president in January. This escalation followed Houthi threats to resume attacks on Israeli ships transiting the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Gulf of Aden.
A suspected US airstrike on a migrant centre in Yemen on April 28 reportedly resulted in the deaths of 68 people, further fueling the controversy surrounding the US military campaign and raising questions about the proportionality of the response.
The ceasefire agreement between the US and the Houthis represents a fragile truce, but it does not address the underlying issues driving the conflict. The Houthis’ continued animosity towards Israel and their willingness to target Israel-linked vessels remain significant obstacles to achieving a lasting peace. The potential for renewed attacks on shipping in the Red Sea poses a continuing threat to global trade and underscores the need for a more comprehensive approach to resolving the conflict in Yemen.
The broader regional context, including the ongoing war in Gaza and the proxy conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia, further complicates the situation. A sustainable solution will require addressing these underlying tensions and fostering a more stable and inclusive political environment in Yemen. The current ceasefire is a welcome step, but it is only the beginning of a long and challenging process.
The international community must remain engaged and work towards a comprehensive resolution that addresses the needs of all parties involved, ensuring the safety and security of both the Yemeni people and the vital Red Sea trade route. Failure to do so risks a return to violence and further instability in the region.
