The Looming Shadow Over Horse Racing: California’s Decline and Florida’s Crossroads
The prestigious Kentucky Derby, a spectacle steeped in tradition and the pinnacle of American horse racing, often provides a stage for narratives that extend far beyond the track itself. This year is no exception, with the tale of Baeza, a talented three-year-old colt, serving as a stark illustration of the challenges facing the sport, particularly in California.
Baeza’s journey to the Derby was fraught with uncertainty. Despite consistent preparation and the assessment of NBC analyst Randy Moss that he was "probably the second-best 3-year-old in America," Baeza’s participation hung in the balance until a late scratch opened a spot in the starting gate. The reason for this predicament can be traced directly to the declining fortunes of Southern California racing.
Once a dominant force in the industry, California’s racing circuit has seen its allure diminish due to the rise of states where casino gambling supplements purse money. The Santa Anita Derby, a Grade 1 race with a $500,000 purse, only attracted five entries this year. This small field triggered a new Churchill Downs rule that reduced Derby qualification points, leaving Baeza on the outside looking in despite a second-place finish.
The trend of small fields extends beyond the Santa Anita Derby. Other notable races like the San Felipe Stakes, the Los Alamitos Futurity, the Santa Anita Oaks, and the Santa Anita Handicap have all suffered from a lack of entries. The Beholder Mile, a $300,000 Grade 1 race for fillies on grass, drew only six competitors.
This decline is attributed to the financial disparities between California and states like Kentucky and Arkansas. Michael McCarthy, the trainer of Derby favorite Journalism, emphasized the "huge disconnect" between California’s $100,000 graded stakes races and the $140,000 maiden races common in states with casino revenue supplementing purses. He pointed to the control of gaming by Native American tribes in California as a significant burden, as the racing industry does not share in those funds.
The situation in California is being closely monitored on the East Coast, particularly in Florida. Gulfstream Park, like Santa Anita, has long been a vital part of the sport’s economic landscape due to its favorable weather and proximity to major population centers. However, Gulfstream’s future is now uncertain due to a proposed "decoupling" bill that would remove the requirement for live racing from the law granting the track its casino license.
This decoupling attempt is viewed by horsemen as an existential threat to racing in Florida. If Gulfstream were to shut down its track and focus solely on its casino, it could have devastating consequences for the state’s racing industry, which supports an estimated 33,000 jobs and generates over $3 billion in economic activity.
Bill Mott, the trainer of Derby contender Sovereignty, expressed his concern and confusion, stating that horsemen were instrumental in securing the casino for Gulfstream and that it would be unfair for the track to abandon them. Damon Thayer, a former Kentucky state senator advising the Thoroughbred Racing Initiative, emphasized the importance of a strong relationship between the horse racing industry and state legislatures.
The issues facing California and Florida share a common denominator: both Santa Anita and Gulfstream are owned by the Stronach Group, a Canada-based company that has been selling off its racetrack holdings. This has led to speculation that Belinda Stronach, who gained control of the company after a legal battle with her father, is no longer committed to the horse racing business.
Thayer argued that antipathy from Belinda Stronach, California legislators, and Native American tribes is the biggest challenge facing California racing. He emphasized the need for someone in those groups to care about the future of the sport if it is to survive and thrive.
The future of horse racing in America hinges on the outcomes in California and Florida. If decoupling passes in Florida and California racing continues to decline, the sport could become concentrated in a few key states like New York, Kentucky, and Arkansas. An even more concerning scenario is that other states with casino gaming or sports wagering could follow Florida’s lead and decouple, further diminishing the number of viable racetracks and horses.
The alternative being supported by many within the industry is to fight back. Lonny Powell, the CEO of the Florida Thoroughbred Breeders and Owners Association, is pushing for a future where a track could be built and operated in the heart of the states breeding industry in Ocala.
Tom Cannell, president of the Florida Horsemens Benevolent and Protective Association, stressed the importance of protecting horsemen and keeping racing alive. He highlighted the broader economic impact of the industry, encompassing grain suppliers, veterinarians, and horse farms. Cannell emphasized the need for a unified effort to ensure the sport’s long-term survival.
The story of Baeza’s near exclusion from the Kentucky Derby serves as a wake-up call for the horse racing industry. The challenges facing California and Florida highlight the importance of financial stability, strong relationships with state governments, and a commitment to preserving the sport’s rich traditions. As the industry navigates these turbulent times, the outcome will determine the future of horse racing in America.
The efforts to safeguard the Florida racing scene is supported by action. Groups are coming together in hopes to provide alternative solutions, including purchasing the property devoted to racing.
