Grok’s March Madness Upset Predictions: Can AI Help You Win Your Bracket?
March Madness is upon us, and the pressure is on to finalize your bracket before the tip-off. The allure of a perfect bracket is strong, but the odds are astronomically against you. A quick Google search reveals the daunting reality: a perfect bracket has roughly a 1 in 147.5 quintillion chance of occurring. Even artificial intelligence, with its vast computational power, is unlikely to achieve this feat.
However, AI can still offer valuable insights. We consulted Grok, an AI model, to identify potential first-round upsets. Grok provided a list of plausible scenarios, highlighting several double-digit seeds poised to disrupt the established order. According to Grok, we should keep an eye on three No. 12 seeds, two No. 11 seeds, a pair of No. 13 seeds, and even a No. 14 seed.
Here are Grok’s top upset picks, along with supporting analysis:
1. Troy (Likely a No. 15 Seed) vs. Injury-Riddled Wildcats
Remember Kentucky’s stunning defeat in 2022, when the No. 2 seed Wildcats fell to No. 15 seed St. Peter’s, who went on an improbable Elite Eight run? Grok suggests that history could repeat itself.
Troy boasts a respectable defense, ranking 65th in the nation in takeaways and 27th in points allowed per game. They will face a Wildcats squad plagued by injuries, making them a vulnerable target for an upset. Troy’s defensive prowess, combined with the Wildcats’ health concerns, creates a favorable environment for a first-round shocker. This matchup is a reminder that a team’s seeding doesn’t always reflect its true potential.
2. Utah State (Likely a No. 11 or 12 Seed) vs. UCLA
Grok identifies Utah State’s distinctive playing style as a potential catalyst for an upset against UCLA. Utah State ranks 52nd in possession length on offense and a staggering 361st on defense. This fast-paced, high-possession approach could overwhelm the Bruins, throwing them off their rhythm and leading to mistakes.
UCLA will need to control the tempo and effectively defend Utah State’s relentless offense. If Utah State can dictate the pace of the game, they have a good chance of pulling off a major upset.
3. High Point (Likely a No. 13 or 14 Seed) vs. Purdue
The Boilermakers have experienced March Madness heartbreak before, most notably their stunning loss to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson as a No. 1 seed just two years ago. Grok warns that Purdue could be vulnerable again, particularly against High Point.
High Point enters the tournament on a hot streak, having won 14 consecutive games. Their offense is highly efficient, ranking seventh in the nation in true shooting percentage. If Purdue underestimates High Point, they could face another early exit from the tournament.
4. Drake (Likely a No. 11 Seed) vs. Missouri
Grok highlights Drake as a prime upset candidate due to their consistent performance and Missouri’s potential weaknesses. Drake is an impressive 30-3 on the season, and their defense is among the nation’s best, allowing just 59.7 points per game, second only to No. 2 Houston. Missouri, on the other hand, allows 73.8 points per game and struggles with free-throw shooting.
While Missouri boasts a strong three-point shooting percentage (37.0%), Grok notes that the KenPom ratings actually favor Missouri, ranking them 15th overall. Drake, despite their impressive record, ranks only 58th in KenPom, suggesting they may be overrated. This could be an interesting matchup between a team with a strong record but questionable ranking and a team that KenPom thinks is better than its seeding.
5. UC San Diego (Likely a No. 12 Seed) vs. Michigan
Grok believes this is a dream matchup for UC San Diego, a potential No. 12 seed. UC San Diego excels at forcing turnovers, ranking sixth in the country in this category. They are also remarkably careful with the ball, ranking fourth in fewest turnovers committed.
Michigan, in stark contrast, struggles with ball security, ranking 340th out of 364 schools in turnovers. Furthermore, Michigan’s three-point percentage is mediocre (33.4%), while UC San Diego is more efficient from beyond the arc (36.5%). KenPom ranks Michigan 25th, while UC San Diego is only 13 spots lower at 38th. Given their respective strengths and weaknesses, Grok suggests that Michigan may be overrated, while UC San Diego is underrated.
Other Potential Upset Candidates
In addition to these five primary scenarios, Grok identifies three other teams to watch out for:
- Liberty (Likely a No. 13 Seed) vs. Oregon: Grok points to Liberty’s exceptional true shooting percentage, which ranks sixth in the country. They are also proficient from three-point range, ranking fifth nationally, while Oregon ranks a lowly 171st in three-point defense. Liberty’s weakness lies in free-throw shooting, ranking 348th, while Oregon is significantly better at 49th. If Liberty can maintain their shooting efficiency and minimize fouls, they could pose a serious threat to Oregon.
- Yale (Likely a No. 13 Seed) vs. Auburn: Last year, Yale upset No. 4 Auburn. Yale also scores a lot of points, 81.4 a game, which ranks 23rd in the nation.
- Colorado State (Likely a No. 10 Seed) vs. Memphis: Grok notes that Colorado State actually ranks ahead of Memphis in the KenPom ratings, and Vegas even has the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite. Memphis has been inconsistent, as seen with bad losses against Quad 3 opponents this season. Grok also points out that Memphis has some injury concerns.
Historical Trends
The historical data supports the possibility of multiple upsets in the first round. No. 12 seeds have a 55-101 record in the first round, but at least one No. 12 seed has won a Round of 64 game in 33 of the last 39 tournaments. Similarly, at least one No. 13 seed has advanced to the Round of 32 in 28 of the last 39 tournaments.
Conclusion
While predicting the future is impossible, especially in the unpredictable world of March Madness, Grok’s analysis offers valuable insights into potential upset candidates. By considering team strengths, weaknesses, playing styles, and historical trends, you can make more informed decisions when filling out your bracket. Remember that even the most sophisticated AI cannot guarantee a perfect bracket, but it can help you identify undervalued teams with the potential to surprise. Good luck, and may your bracket be filled with strategically chosen upsets!
