Germany’s Political Landscape: Uncharted Waters Ahead
As Germany prepares for its federal elections this Sunday, the nation’s political dynamics are undergoing profound shifts. The outgoing coalition, led by Social Democratic chancellor Olaf Scholz, has fractured over economic and budgetary issues, leaving the country in a state of uncertainty.
CDU-CSU Ascendant
Recent opinion polls indicate that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are currently leading the race. With Friedrich Merz as their candidate for chancellorship, the CDU-CSU alliance is projected to secure around 30% of the vote. However, their lead has slightly diminished since the beginning of 2025.
AfD’s Rapid Rise
The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, has experienced significant growth and could potentially exceed 20% of the vote. This would surpass their previous record of 12.6% in 2017. The party’s anti-immigration rhetoric and Euroskepticism have resonated with a portion of the German electorate.
SPD and Greens Struggling
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz, is currently polling at a mere 16%. Meanwhile, the Greens, another member of the outgoing coalition, are expected to come fourth with 13%, close to their historic 2021 results. Both parties have faced criticism for their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and other economic challenges.
Immigration: A Contentious Issue
In a recent televised debate, representatives from the four major parties engaged in a heated discussion about immigration. The topic took center stage following a car-ramming attack in Munich perpetrated by a 24-year-old Afghan man, which resulted in two deaths and 37 injuries. Alice Weidel of the AfD blamed the Scholz government for "people dying in the streets every day."
Minor Parties in the Balance
Three smaller parties are hovering around the crucial 5% threshold for entry into the Bundestag: Die Linke, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). Die Linke is performing better than the BSW, which was founded by former Die Linke member Sahra Wagenknecht in 2023. The FDP, despite exiting the government, is struggling for survival and is focusing on tax cuts as its main platform.
Uncertain Future
With the traditional political establishment facing challenges, the outcome of the upcoming elections remains highly unpredictable. The results will shape the future of Germany’s economy, its role in the European Union, and its stance on immigration.
The CDU-CSU alliance is well-positioned to regain power, but the AfD’s rise presents a significant threat to Germany’s democratic values. The performance of minor parties could also play a decisive role in determining the composition of the Bundestag and the direction of German politics.
As Germany navigates these uncharted waters, the future of Europe’s largest economy and its role in the global stage hang in the balance. The results of the federal elections will be closely watched not only in Berlin but also in Brussels, Washington, and beyond.
