A Political Earthquake Across the Channel: Lessons for the European Right
François-Joseph Schichan, a former diplomat to the United Kingdom and a consultant in geopolitics and European affairs at Flint Global, argues that a significant political shift is underway in the UK, one that should capture the attention of right-wing parties across Europe. Recent local elections have demonstrated the growing influence of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, signaling a potential realignment of British politics and offering crucial insights for right-leaning movements across the continent.
The ascendancy of Reform UK in the May 1st local elections represents more than just a minor victory for a fringe party. It highlights the enduring power of the issues that fueled the Brexit vote and the increasing dissatisfaction with established political institutions. Nigel Farage, a prominent figure in British politics for three decades, has consistently championed causes that resonate with a significant portion of the electorate. His previous successes include campaigning against the UK joining the Eurozone, spearheading the Brexit referendum, and advocating for stricter immigration controls.
During the May elections, Reform UK made notable gains in areas traditionally held by the Labour party. The party also secured a parliamentary seat in a by-election in Runcorn, a Labour stronghold in northern England. This success mirrors the electoral coalition that propelled the Brexit vote in 2016: an alliance between working-class voters in the north of England, feeling neglected by globalization and the southern elites, and a patriotic middle class disillusioned with the center-left. This demographic bears resemblance to the electorates supporting Donald Trump in the United States and Marine Le Pen in France.
The author attributes the Conservative party’s current predicament to the actions of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose scandals have eroded public trust and paved the way for Reform UK’s rise. Farage’s party’s victory is, in essence, a resounding defeat for the Conservatives, who, under the leadership of Kemi Badenoch, have struggled to recover from their loss in the 2024 general election.
The Conservative party’s brand has been severely damaged by its fourteen years in power (2010-2024). During this period, the promises of Brexit remained largely unfulfilled: the country did not regain control over its immigration policies, and the promised economic rebalancing in favor of northern England remained a distant prospect. Consequently, disillusioned voters are increasingly turning to Reform UK. Meanwhile, the current Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, recognizes the challenge posed by Farage but appears ideologically incapable of addressing it effectively. The May 1st local elections underscore the fragility of the Labour party, demonstrating its struggles at the local level less than a year after winning the general election.
Schichan identifies three key lessons from Farage’s rise for right-wing parties in Europe:
The Brexit Revolution is Not Over: The fractures that led to the Brexit vote remain potent and continue to shape British politics. Immigration, the economic marginalization of regions outside globalized urban centers, and cultural issues (such as the fight against "wokeness") are still powerful drivers. Without addressing these concerns, populist parties like Reform UK will continue to gain momentum.
The Erosion of the Bipartisan System: The traditional two-party system in the UK, designed to favor established parties like the Conservatives and Labour, is showing signs of collapse. The "first past the post" electoral system is no longer an insurmountable obstacle to the rise of alternative political forces.
The Inevitable Union of the Right: Reform UK’s electoral progress in the local elections positions the Conservative party, which has dominated British politics for nearly 50 years since 1945, as the third-largest political force in the country. This outcome will undoubtedly reignite discussions about the necessity of an alliance between the Conservatives and Nigel Farage.
These lessons hold relevance for other European countries grappling with similar political dynamics. In France, similar fractures have emerged, leading to a surge in protest votes. The electoral system is no longer preventing a significant influx of National Rally (RN) candidates into the National Assembly. Consequently, the question of a right-wing alliance is gaining traction, mirroring the situation in the UK.
Reform UK is well-positioned to become a credible alternative to the traditional ruling parties in London. The party is actively developing a serious ideological and political platform, moving beyond mere protest politics. Reform is transforming into a party capable of governing.
However, the path to power is not without its challenges. One major obstacle is ideological inconsistency: Farage’s political stances sometimes clash with the instincts of his target electorate. For example, he remains committed to free trade, even though his constituents are often the first victims of economic globalization. The party also faces internal divisions on the issue of immigration, with some advocating for singling out Muslim immigration while Farage refrains from doing so to avoid alienating a politically significant community. Reform also needs to articulate a clear economic policy.
The ongoing political changes in the UK should serve as a wake-up call for the European right, particularly in France, where the right is seeking to rebuild itself. The structures of the French and British electorates share similarities, as do the political debates that resonate with them. As demonstrated by the downfall of the British Conservatives, there is no political salvation in a compromising approach that seeks an alliance with the center. Both the British Conservative party and the French Republicans are facing political decline. If they wish to have a future, they must – out of necessity and a sense of responsibility to their electorate – rebuild themselves by acknowledging these new political realities. This means addressing the core concerns of voters feeling left behind by globalization, embracing a clear stance on cultural issues, and potentially forging alliances to challenge the established political order. The UK, under the influence of Farage, provides a roadmap – or at least a cautionary tale – for the European right as it navigates an increasingly complex and volatile political landscape.
