Unearthing Fantasy Baseball Gold: Late-Round Gems Poised to Dominate
Fantasy baseball dominance isn’t forged in the early rounds. While snagging elite talent in the first few rounds provides a strong foundation, the true path to a championship lies in identifying and acquiring undervalued players who can significantly outperform their draft position. It’s about recognizing the potential for breakout performances, the impact of changing environments, and the subtle hints of improvement that others might overlook. Securing these hidden gems in the later rounds allows you to construct a well-rounded roster brimming with upside, while also freeing up your early picks to secure the established stars.
This isn’t about chasing obscure names or relying solely on gut feelings. It’s about analyzing underlying statistics, evaluating changing circumstances, and understanding player trajectories to pinpoint those individuals poised to deliver exceptional value. It’s about finding the players who "leak" into the later rounds, despite possessing the potential to contribute like much earlier picks. We’re talking about players who can consistently provide startable value, the kind that allows you to weather injuries and slumps with ease. We’re talking about players with top-20 overall potential available in the mid-rounds. We’re even talking about pitchers who might just take that leap and become true aces.
This list aims to highlight exactly those types of players. At each position, we’ll identify one individual currently being drafted later than their potential suggests they should be. Stocking your roster with multiple players from this list will provide you with a competitive edge, allowing you to draft established stars early while securing high-upside contributors later on.
(All ADP figures provided below are courtesy of FantasyPros)
Catcher: Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP: 377)
The catcher position is often a wasteland in fantasy baseball, filled with players who offer limited offensive upside. Alejandro Kirk, however, presents an intriguing opportunity to buck that trend. With Danny Jansen now out of the picture, Kirk faces significantly less competition for playing time behind the plate. While his performance in recent years has been somewhat underwhelming, there were encouraging signs of a return to form in the latter half of the 2024 season. He posted a solid .297 average in the final month, suggesting he might finally be finding his rhythm. Furthermore, he also recorded his best launch angle since 2021 during that same span, indicating improved power potential. If he can carry that momentum into the upcoming season, Kirk could significantly outperform his ADP, becoming a valuable contributor at a traditionally weak position.
First Base: Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 237)
Ryan Mountcastle is a prime example of a player whose statistics don’t fully reflect his potential. The remodeled Camden Yards, with its significantly deeper left field, has been detrimental to his power output. In fact, no player had more home runs taken away due to the expanded wall than Mountcastle (11). With the wall now being brought in, Mountcastle’s power numbers are poised to surge. He already showcased impressive power potential by hitting 30 home runs last season, and with the improved ballpark dimensions, he could easily eclipse that mark and set new career highs in both home runs and RBI. Drafting Mountcastle at his current ADP is essentially acquiring a potential power hitter at a significant discount.
Second Base: Zack Gelof, Oakland Athletics (ADP: 227)
Zack Gelof is a player with undeniable flaws, but also undeniable upside. His high strikeout rate is a persistent concern, and his declining outside zone contact rate between 2023 and 2024 suggests this issue isn’t likely to disappear anytime soon. However, despite these shortcomings, Gelof remains a legitimate 20-20 candidate, meaning he has the potential to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in a single season. The fact that you can acquire a player with that kind of potential with one of the very last picks of your draft makes him an extremely enticing option. The combination of power and speed is rare, and even with the strikeouts, Gelof’s potential reward far outweighs the risk at his current ADP.
Third Base: Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants (ADP: 121)
Matt Chapman is the epitome of consistency. His performance over the past several seasons has been remarkably stable. He’s hit exactly 27 home runs in three of the last four seasons and consistently driven in between 70 and 80 runs in each of those seasons. While his batting average might fluctuate slightly, you generally know what you’re getting with Chapman: a player who provides reliable power and consistent playing time. He’s a valuable asset due to his stellar defense and ability to avoid injuries, ensuring he’s on the field every day. The combination of consistent playing time and 20+ home run power provides a solid floor for a player currently being drafted as the 13th third baseman off the board. That makes him an exceptional value pick.
Shortstop: Tyler Fitzgerald, San Francisco Giants (ADP: 234)
Tyler Fitzgerald offers a tantalizing blend of speed and developing power. He made a splash when he started receiving consistent playing time in July, launching 13 home runs in just 43 games between July and August. While his power cooled off in the final month of the season, his potential remains undeniable. Even if his power numbers regress slightly, he’s still a valuable asset as a table-setter, demonstrated by his .319 batting average when leading off innings in 2024. Moreover, Fitzgerald is one of the fastest players in baseball, making him a legitimate 20-20 threat that you can acquire outside the top 200 picks. That combination of speed and developing power makes him a high-upside gamble worth taking.
Outfield: Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 42)
Kyle Schwarber’s value is often underestimated due to his low batting average. However, his power output is undeniable. Since joining Philadelphia, he hasn’t had a season with fewer than 38 home runs and 94 RBI. Even in 2023, when he batted below the Mendoza line, he still managed to hit 40 home runs and drive in over 100 runs. In that season, he was significantly unlucky with a .209 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). In 2024, his BABIP rebounded to a more sustainable .301, suggesting his performance is more likely to resemble his 2024 numbers than his 2023 numbers. Both seasons offer considerable fantasy value. Schwarber would be a reasonable pick in the third round, but the fact that you can grab him in the fifth round makes him a steal.
Outfield: Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco Giants (ADP: 261)
Jung Hoo Lee represents a high-risk, high-reward pick. While the injury risk is legitimate, his underlying metrics are equally compelling. Before his injury, he demonstrated exceptional contact skills, ranking second in MLB in contact rate behind only All-Star Steven Kwan. He’s also incredibly patient at the plate and possesses solid speed. If you’re not desperately seeking home runs from your outfielders, Lee represents a solid option outside the top 200 picks. His ability to get on base and steal bases could provide a significant boost to your team’s overall offensive production.
Outfield: Michael Conforto, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP: 297)
Michael Conforto finds himself in an enviable position, expected to be the Dodgers’ primary left fielder and batting in the middle of one of the most potent lineups in baseball. Moving from Oracle Park, notoriously difficult for left-handed hitters, to the hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium, Conforto’s power potential is amplified. He could easily hit 30 home runs in this new environment. The combination of improved ballpark and a stacked lineup creates a perfect storm for a potential breakout season, making Conforto an exceptional value pick at his current ADP.
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 113)
It’s easy to forget just how dominant Joe Ryan was at the beginning of last season. He posted a sub-3.00 ERA through the first two months, showcasing remarkable control by walking only one batter for every eight he struck out. However, his performance declined as the season progressed. The extent to which his decline was due to shoulder discomfort remains unclear. Now, with that season behind him, there’s a strong possibility that Ryan will return to his early-season form. Yet, he’s still being drafted outside the top 100 picks. Drafting Ryan presents a chance to acquire a potential ace at a significantly discounted price.
Relief Pitcher: Lucas Erceg, Kansas City Royals (ADP: 183)
While Carlos Estevez is currently projected to be the primary closer in Kansas City, Lucas Erceg offers significant upside and potential value. Erceg was acquired by the Royals last year specifically as someone who could close games if needed. Regardless of Estevez’s role, Erceg is likely to receive some save opportunities. These opportunities could increase significantly if Estevez struggles in his new environment. Furthermore, Estevez is already dealing with back tightness as the season approaches, further increasing the likelihood of Erceg seeing save opportunities. Erceg is the clear next-in-line for the closer role and has demonstrated the ability to handle it. At the very least, he’ll provide valuable innings as a reliever. Drafting him at his current ADP provides a potential for double-digit saves without wasting a valuable early-round pick.
By targeting these undervalued players, you can build a fantasy baseball roster poised for success, leaving your opponents wondering how you managed to assemble such a talented team. Remember, the key to winning isn’t always about drafting the biggest names; it’s about identifying the players who will deliver the biggest return on investment. Good luck, and happy drafting!
